Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Gun Runner Stakes

Dec 17, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Mesquite wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

A field of eight two-year-old runners will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt at Fair Grounds in Saturday’s $100,000 Gun Runner S. The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will give the top five finishers qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses in May on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis.

I feel that Mesquite is a really nice prospect for excellent trainer Cherie Devaux. By Union Rags, the juvenile horse made a belated run to finish sixth in a sprint at Keeneland in his first appearance on Oct. 4 prior to graduating second time out at Churchill Downs when running longer. The bay colt went from last to first like a good thing in his victory, and the homebred has posted three good morning workouts at Fair Grounds since that victory, as well. Drawing the rail seems ideal for a horse that is not in a hurry early and wants to make his move late, as he will be able to save valuable ground for much of the race. Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him in his first two contests, will once again take the reins atop my first selection.

Mesquite improves at second asking to graduate in R8 at @churchilldowns for trainer @reredevaux with @jose93_ortiz aboard! 💪

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/Ulb5cO3lnz

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 7, 2025

Liberty National, from the barn of fine conditioner Kenny McPeek, also won in his second lifetime performance at Churchill Downs. The two-year-old son of first-year sire Maxfield was purchased for a healthy $525,000 as a yearling at Keeneland and looks like another who might be a very good prospect. He has a similar profile to Mesquite in that he didn’t run great going short in his first race, but the youngster showed big improvement with more distance in his second race. The Kentucky-bred colt will not be real close in the early portion of the race on Saturday, but he will be closing fast late while making his first run with stakes foes. He put in what looks like a good five-furlong morning workout in New Orleans to get ready for this race, and the contender will have the services of jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. for the second consecutive time.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #1 Mesquite on top of #3 Liberty National in the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.

Wager

$20 exacta 1 with 3

Bonus Play (Untapable Stakes Race 10)

$3 exacta box 1-2-3