Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes

Jul 24, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Sovereignty winning the Belmont (G1) at Saratoga (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

A compact but excellent field of five will run 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga main oval in Saturday’s $500,000 Jim Dandy S. (G2). Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont S. (G1) star Sovereignty will make his first appearance since impressively taking his second Triple Crown race on the local strip, and the colt looms large once again on this day.

Trained by Bill Mott, the standout son of Into Mischief has been expertly managed during the 2025 campaign and remains lightly raced, leaving room to move forward as the season progresses. The Godolphin homebred checked in a good second in the Florida Derby (G1) in his lone try at the distance prior to Saturday and is seemingly coming up to this contest in perfect order, as well.

SOVEREIGNTY WINS THE KENTUCKY DERBY! 🌹

Bill Mott trains and @JuniorandKellyA was aboard for @godolphin! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/wOzqOFVRkb

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) May 3, 2025

Sovereignty displayed good tactical speed in the Belmont in his latest showing, and in a field with just one pace player in it, the bay could find himself within striking range throughout the event once again. First or second in a handful of races in succession following a fourth-place result in a sprint on debut at The Spa, the bay will not be fully primed for Saturday with eyes on bigger prizes awaiting him in the coming months. Nonetheless, he is still impossible to go against. Regular pilot Junior Alvarado will be in the silks.

Mo Plex passed his initial two-turn test with aplomb when annexing the Ohio Derby (G3) in his latest performance and will be dangerous with even slight improvement for conditioner Jeremiah Englehart. The New York-bred son of Complexity has never run a bad race in his lifetime, evidenced by his 8-5-1-2 career line in advance of his toughest try to date, and it also bodes well for him that he is two-for-two on the oval, as well. The bay colt will need to run the race of his life to upset this group, but if he clears the cast early on, then he has a chance to
be around late with Manuel Franco taking the reins.

Three-time Grade-1 placed Baeza possesses a world of ability and has the best upset chance in the group for trainer John Shirreffs. The bay, who checked in third in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont in his last pair of endeavors, has trained swiftly in preparation for this encounter and has room to grow with just six lifetime races to his credit. McKinzie colt is not slow and could be asked for speed from the inside post from the break with Hector Berrios in the stirrups.

Expert Pick
A trifecta with #5 Sovereignty on top of #1 Baeza and #3 Mo Plex in the 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.