Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Lukas Classic Stakes

Sep 25, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Hit Show with Florent Geroux aboard wins the Louisiana Stakes. (Photo by Hodges Photography / Lou Hodges, Jr.)

An excellent field of seven will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Churchill Downs dirt in Saturday’s highly competitive, $500,000 Lukas Classic S. (G2). The feature on a big day of racing at the Louisville, Ky., track has five of the seven runners in the group who have bankrolled in excess of $1.5 million in their respective careers, making this a very challenging race to figure out. Hit Show is the richest runner in the cast with more than $8.5 million in earnings, much of which was accrued when winning in the Dubai World Cup (G1) at Meydan in April.

The five-year-old son of Candy Ride has won 10 of his 20 lifetime races to date for trainer Brad Cox, with two wins coming at Churchill Downs, including a victory in this race in 2024. The gray horse was last seen running at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 3 in the West Virginia Governors S. and came out victorious after a long battle for the length of the stretch. Since that gutsy score, Hit Show has recorded five morning workouts to get ready to defend his crown in this race, and he will be a major threat with jockey Florent Geroux riding him once again.

Defending Lukas Classic Champion HIT SHOW schooling in the @ChurchillDowns paddock. 👀 pic.twitter.com/REnhTS5afJ

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) September 25, 2025

Banishing will break from the outside post position and will be very dangerous for trainer and co-owner David Jacobson. The son of the brilliant Ghostzapper has raced nine times in 2025, registering four wins and four second-place finishes. In his lifetime at Churchill Downs, the chestnut horse has finished in the top three on five of eight occasions, too. He was a solid winner of the Charles Town Classic (G2) in his most recent race, and Banishing could beat this field if he runs like he did last time. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the saddle atop the five-year-old contender, who I expect will settle into the fourth position on the outside early before putting in his strong closing kick down the stretch.

Expert Pick

An exacta box with #2 Hit Show and #7 Banishing in the 2025 Lukas Classic Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.