Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Blame Stakes

May 27, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Hit Show with Florent Geroux aboard wins the Louisiana Stakes. (Photo by Hodges Photography / Lou Hodges, Jr.)

A field of eight horses will run 1 1/8 miles over the famed Churchill Downs dirt surface in Saturday’s $300,000 Blame (G3). The standout event is one of seven stakes races to be hosted by the Louisville track as part of Stephen Foster Preview Day.

Wathnan Racing’s Hit Show has amassed more than $9 million in earnings in his career and is the one to beat in the contest. Trained by the always dangerous Brad Cox, the six-year-old son of excellent sire Candy Ride picked up his biggest win when upsetting his foes in the 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1) and is the most accomplished contender in this field. The gray horse was fifth in Dubai this season in his last run, but has come back with some good morning workouts since that effort to indicate that he will be ready to roll on Saturday.

Hit Show wins the Dubai World Cup! 🏆@bradcoxracing @flothejock @RacingDubai

pic.twitter.com/AGN0jS8Tg5

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 5, 2025

Hit Show has won twice on this course in his career, and the six-year-old was a close second in the Clark (G2) in November here behind the fantastic Magnitude in his last local appearance. The top pick will have Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the silks and will likely stalk the early pace from midpack before unleashing his strong late burst turning for home against this group.

The Steve Asmussen-trained Hall of Fame has a decent measure of early speed and will be forwardly placed in the event that lacks a true frontrunner. The Grade-3 winning son of Gun Runner got good last season, which included a solid fourth in this race a year ago in a tough field, and he will stretch out in distance after a sprint try locally in his 2026 debut last time out. The five-year-old will be disputing the action from the opening bell with Jose Ortiz in the silks.

Todd Pletcher’s Vibe was a $3 million yearling purchase in 2023, and following an unplaced run in his unveiling, the colt comes in with three wins in succession, including a sharp allowance tally on this strip on Kentucky Derby Day. By top sire Into Mischief, the four-year-old has improved his Brisnet Speed rating with each career try to date and has the speed from the gate to be involved from the start in his second local appearance. I expect jockey Luis Saez to send this one to try for the lead early on.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #3 Hit Show on top of #2 Hall of Fame and #8 Vibe in the 2026 Blame Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.