Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Dwyer Stakes

Nov 04, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Ted Noffey wins the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Champion Ted Noffey will make his three-year-old debut when leading a strong field postward in Saturday’s $200,000 Dwyer S. at Belmont Park. Ten three-year-old colts and geldings will travel the one-turn mile over the dirt surface at the Elmont, New York venue in a nice rendition of the contest.

By otherworldly sire Into Mischief, the Todd Pletcher trainee went four-for-four in his juvenile campaign capped by a measured score in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar on Oct. 31 of last season. The gray Spendthrift color bearer displayed both impressive early speed and a stout closing kick during his championship season, and his steady string of morning drills dating back to early August suggests that he will be fit and ready for his comeback assignment.

Ted Noffey stays perfect in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile! 🏆 @spendthriftfarm @ljlmvel

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— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 1, 2025

Ted Noffey landed in a difficult spot to return in, but his draw is fine, and the Kentucky-bred can adjust to virtually any pace scenario and still thrive. His last three morning workouts have been on the speedy side, and he figures to be in a good spot at the top of the lane on Saturday, with regular jockey John Velazquez retaining the ride.

Chad Brown’s Sea Strike, a fine debut winner at Aqueduct in April, burst onto the scene at Saratoga in the summer following a fantastic, 8 ¼-length romp in the Curlin S. while making his route debut on August 2. Purchased for $650,000 as a two-year-old in training, the sophomore was well-backed in the Travers  (G1) in his latest endeavor, but he tired late after being close to an honest pace for a long stretch of the 1 ¼-mile contest in a field more talented than this particular cast.

The son of Midshipman reverts to one-turn and eight furlongs for his local bow, and he has continued to train in excellent fashion over the Oklahoma training strip at Saratoga in preparation for this event, too. Sea Strike will have regular rider Flavien Prat in the saddle once again, and I expect him to be the horse to hold off in the race's later stages.

Expert Pick

An exacta box with #6 Ted Noffey and #9 Sea Strike in the 2026 Dwyer Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.