Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Florida Derby

Mar 25, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Commandment wins the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

A standout field of eight three-year-olds with hopes of making it to Louisville in May will run 1 1/8 miles on the Gulfstream Park dirt in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (G1). The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event will reward the top five finishers in the race with qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses on a 100-50-25-15-10 structure.

The important race features some of the top three-year-old horses in training and figures to be a thrilling and memorable event. Wathnan Racing’s Commandment has improved his Brisnet Speed rating with every lifetime try to date and was very impressive when taking the Fountain of Youth (G2) on this surface last time out on Feb. 28. The Brad Cox trainee has come out on top in both of his career runs at Gulfstream Park leading up to Saturday, and he has won three races in a row in total.

Kentucky Derby Roundup: Commandment among weekend winners. 🌹 @J_Keelerman has the latest news and notes regarding @KentuckyDerby 152! 📝https://t.co/t50VwoeYvR

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Commandment passed his two-turn test with ease most recently, and he gives me the impression of a horse who will thrive with running longer going forward. He has enough speed from the gate to secure a sensible position in the early portion of the race, and his closing kick is a substantial one, too. The sophomore colt recorded a fast morning workout at Payson Park last weekend and will have Flavien Prat in the saddle for the first time.

Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee has been very good from two lifetime races at this track to begin his career, led by a close second to the top pick in the Fountain of Youth in his second career appearance. The horse by the very good sire Constitution is a fantastic prospect who has been excellent to this stage of his development, and he continues to train in a positive fashion, as well. Chief Wallabee will likely be near the middle of the pack from the start, prior to unleashing his robust late burst with Junior Alvarado in the silks.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #4 Commandment on top of #2 Chief Wallabee in the 2026 Florida Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.

Wager

$20 exacta 4 with 2 ($20)

Bonus Bet (Gulfstream Park Oaks -- Race 9)

$20 exacta 6 with 5 ($20)