Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Lexington Stakes

Apr 08, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Confessional wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

A cast of 11 three-year-old horses will run a distance of 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland dirt surface in Saturday’s $400,000 Lexington (G3). The race serves as the final qualifying race on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series and will reward the top five across the wire with points towards the Derby on a 20-10-6-4-2 structure.

Trainer Brad Cox already has three major contenders for the Run for the Roses on May 2 at Churchill Downs and will saddle a pair of talented horses in this contest, too. Among the duo is the gray colt named Confessional, who looks to be the one to beat in the event. Purchased for $160,000 at public auction when he was a yearling, the son of two-time champion and good young sire Essential Quality began his career at Keeneland with a fine maiden win while running seven furlongs on this dirt course.

Confessional is a 12/1 winner on debut in R3 at Keeneland under @a_concepcion16 for trainer @bradcoxracing! 💪

The 2YO colt by Essential Quality paid $27.36 to win.

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/nlz3iJ8x30

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 16, 2025

Confessional kicked off 2026 with a second-place result behind the talented Nearly at Gulfstream Park, and he then produced his lone off-the-board finish in the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 in his second run of the season. In the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs last time out, the gray colt rallied to be third with the blinkers going back on in what was a much-improved showing.

Campaigned by owner Stave Landers Racing, the horse has posted two successful morning workouts in the state of Kentucky in advance of his return to Keeneland and seems poised to give a fine account of himself on Saturday. The top selection will track the pace from near the middle of the pack in the early stages of the tilt prior to being asked for his best in the stretch beneath excellent jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Corona de Oro gets the advantageous rail for the race and comes in off two very good runs in 2026 for trainer Dallas Stewart. The three-year-old colt was second two back behind a very nice prospect while sprinting at Fair Grounds and was last seen dominating a maiden field in his first run going long. He put in a fast morning workout leading up to his stakes debut, and he will be a contender with improvement in his second lifetime run at Keeneland with Brian Hernandez, Jr. riding.

Exhibition Only was only fourth in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct last time out for conditioner Rudy Rodriguez, but that was a swiftly run race where the top-three finishers are all quite talented. The speedy horse gets a good draw near the inside for his local debut and might be sent to the lead from the start with regular jockey Ruben Silvera in for the mount. The son of Complexity will be dangerous if he gets his own way in the early portion of the race.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #10 Confessional on top of #1 Corona de Oro and #2 Exhibition Only in the 2026 Lexington Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.