Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Monomoy Girl Stakes

Jun 10, 2026

Percy's Bar wins the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland.

Percy's Bar wins the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

A really nice group of three-year-old fillies will race on the Churchill Downs dirt track on Saturday in the $175,000 Monomoy Girl S. The race for the ladies will be contested at 1 1/16 miles, and it looks as though Grade 1 queen Percy’s Bar will be very difficult to upend if she fires her best shot. Purchased for $52,000 as a yearling in 2024, the daughter of Upstart was a very good two-year-old runner who amassed more than $555,000 in earnings, led by a trio of top-three results in the Grade 1 ranks to close out her juvenile campaign.

Percy’s Bar began 2026 at Keeneland in the Ashland (G1) on April 3, and the Kentucky-bred was awesome in her first run of the year when blitzing her foes in the stretch to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The Ben Colebrook trainee went to the gate at odds of 5-1 in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her latest appearance and split the field after a slow break from a wide post. She posted a fast morning workout in her first move since that tilt, and the bay horse landed in a much more favorable spot against this cast. Regular rider Luan Machado will be in the saddle and have the filly in a menacing position at the top of the lane.

The Brad Cox-trained Sneaky Good continues to improve and could loom as the main danger to the favorite in the affair. A stakes victress at two, the daughter of formidable sire Into Mischief has hit the board in three graded stakes races in succession this season, and her lone run at the distance resulted in a nice third behind two standout performers in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park on March 1. The $450,000 auction purchase has never run on this course and might love it. Her latest morning workout came here, and she went well. She will also benefit from drawing directly outside of the horse to beat on Saturday, with Jaime Torres signed on for the ride.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #5 Percy’s Bar on top of #6 Sneaky Good in the 2026 Monomoy Girl S. is the Best Bet of the Week.

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