Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Risen Star Stakes

Feb 11, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Paladin wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Janet Napolitano)

A total of eight three-year-olds will run 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Fair Grounds on Saturday in the $500,000 Risen Star (G2). The ever-important 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series contest will reward the top five finishers in the race with qualifying points to the Derby on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis, which will basically ensure the winner a berth in the ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs on May 2.

My top pick is the Chad Brown-trained Paladin, who will be making his third lifetime start, and his first of 2026. The colt made some headlines before even making it to the races when he brought a sizable closing bid of $1.9 million at auction as a yearling in 2024, and his two races as a two-year-old gave us a glimpse of why he was such a pricey purchase.

.@BeemieAwards discusses news of the day and welcomes in analyst @JoeyDaKRacing to talk Risen Star Day at @fairgroundsnola! ⚜️

Listen here: https://t.co/04VIhYBKqg pic.twitter.com/mCJvoWUjRu

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 11, 2026

Paladin made his first start on Oct. 17 at Aqueduct, and while he crossed the wire a head back in second, the colt was elevated to the win after the first-place finisher was disqualified for interference. The chestnut son of the sensational Gun Runner next appeared in the Remsen (G2) on the same track on Dec. 6 and was favored in the 11-horse field. In that contest, the horse moved to the lead in the early stretch and finished strongly to post a two-length victory to move his mark to two-for-two.

The horse didn’t take much time off following his big win as he has posted five morning workouts to get ready for Saturday’s contest. He is proven at this distance and has the presence from the starting gate to secure a good position early in his races, too. The 98 Brisnet Speed rating that he earned in the Remsen most recently is easily the best in the field, and the horse that was bred in Kentucky will be a formidable foe if he runs like he did last time. Tyler Gaffalione will come in to ride the prime Kentucky Derby prospect.

Expert Pick

A win by #4 Paladin in the 2026 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is the Best Bet of the Week.

Wager

$20 win #4 Paladin ($20)

Bonus Play:

Race 11 – Rachel Alexandra (G2)

$10 exacta 3 with 1,7 ($20)