Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Stephen Foster Stakes

Jun 24, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Sovereignty wins the Travers at Saratoga. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

A small but stellar cast of five older male horses will run 1 1/8 miles over the famed Churchill Downs dirt surface in Saturday’s lucrative, $2 million Stephen Foster (G1). The feature on a massive day of racing at the Louisville, Ky., venue has attracted a field in which each runner has earned graded stakes success in the past, and three of the contenders are coming off impressive wins last time out. The original field of seven was scratched down to five on Friday afternoon with the confirmed omissions of both Saffie Joseph-trained runners, Forged Steel and Navajo Warrior.

One of the horses in the field coming off a loss is the mighty Sovereignty for trainer Bill Mott, who is the top pick in the fantastic showdown. The reigning Horse of the Year was superb as a three-year-old in 2025 with wins in five of his six appearances, led by triumphs in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont (G1), and Travers (G1), the latter of which he won by a massive 10 lengths.

Sovereignty made his four-year-old debut in the Oaklawn H. (G2) on April 18 and checked in second after dueling on the front end for the majority of the tilt, and I feel that his effort in Arkansas last time will be a perfect prep for this contest. The son of standout sire Into Mischief has recorded five morning workouts in preparation for his second run of the season and will relish the return to Churchill Downs, where he has posted two impressive wins from as many local attempts. Junior Alvarado will ride the Godolphin homebred and have him rally from off the expected swift early tempo on Saturday.

The Steve Asmussen-trained Magnitude is two-for-two this season, highlighted by a fine Dubai World Cup (G1) victory when conquering the otherworldly Forever Young. The four-year-old horse by Not This Time has picked up five stakes wins from his last seven races ahead of this heavyweight battle, which includes a strong tally in the Clark (G2) on this surface in the fall. He has reportedly been working in very good fashion in preparation for the race and will be a menacing figure in the stretch if the colt runs to his best in this endeavor. Jose Ortiz will take the reins once again.

Mott’s Baeza missed the break in his 2026 debut but mounted a strong late rally to be a close third in the Alysheba (G2) on this oval on Kentucky Oaks Day. The four-year-old son of McKinzie hit the board in two classic races as a three-year-old and has shown an affinity for this course from a pair of races over it, including a third in the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). He will improve in his second run off the long absence and will do his best work inside the final furlong of the race with Flavien Prat in the controls.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #3 Sovereignty on top of #4 Baeza and #5 Magnitude in the 2026 Stephen Foster Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.