Expert Pick of the Week: 2026 Virginia Derby

Mar 10, 2026

Buetane winning a maiden race at Del Mar (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

A well-matched field of 10 three-year-olds with hopes of making it to Louisville in early May will contest the $500,000 Virginia Derby on Saturday. The 1 1/8-mile event will be held on the dirt at Colonial Downs and is part of the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series, with the top five finishers receiving qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.

The Bob Baffert-trained Buetane will make his third run of the season, and his second at a route of ground, while making his local debut. Purchased for $1.15 million as a two-year-old, the horse was a fine debut winner in August prior to finishing second to champion Ted Noffey in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga on Sept. 1. The chestnut son of Tiz the Law checked in second in the San Vicente (G2) in his 2026 bow prior to crossing the wire in third in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park in his most recent endeavor.

Buetane has posted two nice morning drills leading up to Saturday, and I expect him to take a big step forward against this group from the rail. Flavien Prat comes in to guide the expensive Kentucky-bred and will have him close to the pace every step of the way.

The Tom Drury-trained Lockstocknpharoah has been excellent in posting a pair of impressive wins to date on the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park, led by a visually excellent allowance romp while going a route of ground last time out. By Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, the three-year-old gelding is bred to handle this distance with ease, and he did train well on the dirt at Churchill Downs in the fall to give me a level of confidence that he will prosper on the surface change at Colonial.

Lockstocknpharoah can run from on or off the pace with equal effectiveness, and he still has room to improve with just a pair of races to his credit, as well. The bargain $50,000 yearling purchase will always be in striking range in the race, with regular rider Edgar Morales coming in for the voyage.

Expert Pick

An exacta box with #1 Buetane and #6 Lockstocknpharoah in the 2026 Virginia Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.

Wager

$10 exacta box 1-6 ($20)

Bonus Play: Virginia Oaks (Race 8)

$10 exacta box 1-3 ($20)