Expert Pick of the Week: Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds

Dec 23, 2021 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A total of seven two-year-olds will go postward in Sunday’s $100,000 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds. The 1 1/16-mile contest acts as a 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series race, with the top four finishers earning points towards the Run for the Roses on a 10-4-2-1 basis.

Winchell Thoroughbreds’ Epicenter was last seen driving home a convincing maiden winner in a one-mile maiden special weight event at Churchill Downs for conditioner Steve Asmussen. The $260,000 yearling purchase has posted a trio of solid morning drills in the interim, with two coming on the Fair Grounds main surface, and he seems poised for success in his stakes bow. Epicenter is the Expert Pick of the Week.

The Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt debuted on September 18 beneath the Twin Spires and led a nice field to the half-mile mark before tiring late, eventually checking in sixth. He returned on November 13 and broke from the widest post in a similar type of contest. He once again led turning for home, but this time the bay never stopped, ultimately crossing the wire 3 1/2 lengths clear over a nice prospect in Seal Beach.

Epicenter earned a strong 95 Brisnet Speed figure for his victory over a ‘good’ surface, and I expect him to run his winning streak to two on Sunday. The youngster has the speed to get to the front soon after the break in the Gun Runner, and he rates a good chance of leading at every call with Brian Hernandez, Jr. inheriting the mount.

The Brad Cox-conditioned Rocket Dawg was very impressive on debut and figures to be the main threat to the top pick. By Classic Empire, the March foal broke slowly in a seven-furlong maiden special weight fray at Churchill Downs prior to putting forth an eye-popping move approaching the turn for home. The Kentucky-bred bay streaked clear by 5 1/2 lengths at the finish, and the colt looms large with even minor improvement on Sunday. Florent Geroux will be in the stirrups atop the intriguing juvenile.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #1 Epicenter on top of #3 Rocket Dawg in the Gun Runner Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week. Bet Fair Grounds live racing at TwinSpires!