Feeling the Derby Power: Kentucky Derby Power Rankings 2025 [Nov. 3]

Nov 03, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Ted Noffey wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar 2025 (Photo by Horsesphotos.com)

POWER RANKINGS: BREEDERS' CUP SHAKEUP

Week 5: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) may not have the best record as a Kentucky Derby predictor. But it’s always a key date in assessing where the Derby contenders stand. This year is no different. For once, an odds-on favorite was successful in the Juvenile, and there’s no doubt Ted Noffey deserves his place at the head of Kentucky Derby candidates.

In many ways, the Juvenile confirmed what we already knew – that Ted Noffey and Brant were leading two-year-olds, and that the form around them was solid. Litmus Test lived up to his name, running to a similar level as he did behind Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) – he was closer in the Juvenile, but mainly because Ted Noffey switched off for 50 yards in the stretch in the Juvenile.

The biggest surprise was the effort of Mr. A. P., who took advantage of a nice run behind the speed to push Ted Noffey to a length and move past Brant on the line.

The Juvenile wasn’t the only action seen by Kentucky Derby contenders this week, but it was the main one and hence has had an important impact on the Power Rankings.

There was a greater shake-up in the Power Rankings for the Kentucky Oaks, with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) going to a horse that hadn’t contested a stakes race. Along with the rankings, we’ll have a look at how the horses ended up when betting closed on Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey (1, no change). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 10-1

Solidly won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds-on. His victory was made more impressive by the way he picked himself up after appearing to switch off in the stretch. Has the Derby hex on Juvenile runners to overcome, but has done everything right to date.

Ted Noffey wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar 2025 (Photo by Horsesphotos.com)

2.         Mr. A. P. (new entry). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 55-1

If you backed Mr. A. P. in Pool 1 of the Future Wager, you’d have been delighted that betting closed before the Juvenile. A few hours after he closed as a 55-1 chance, he rallied solidly to take second in the Juvenile. He’s improved at each start, with the distances getting longer each time, making him look like a solid Derby contender.

3.         Brant (3, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 14-1

Set the pace in the Juvenile and then fought Ned Toffey hard in the stretch. Given the leader bias on the Del Mar dirt over the weekend, however, he might have been expected to hold off Mr. A. P. for second, which is why he drops a place. As a son of Gun Runner, he still has enough stamina pretensions to remain a high Derby power ranking.

4.         Blackout Time (6, +2). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 20-1

Was ruled out of the Juvenile on veterinary advice, but the race result enhanced his reputation – not only did his Breeders’ Futurity conqueror, Ted Noffey, win the Juvenile, but Litmus Test, who was 2 1/4 lengths behind Blackout Time in the Futurity, finished a close fourth.

5.         Napoleon Solo (3, -2). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 27-1

Time will tell whether it was the right decision to bypass the Breeders’ Cup with Napoleon Solo. But his Champagne (G1) victory was enhanced at Churchill Downs last week when Universe and Stradale, who were behind him that day, respectively ran third in the Street Sense (G3) and easily won a maiden.

6.         Litmus Test (15, +9). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 141-1

Keeps running good races at the highest level. After winning his maiden, he was a 4 1/4-length fourth to Brant in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), a 5-length third to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity, and a 1 3/4-length fourth to Ted Noffey in the Juvenile. You won’t be complaining about the 141-1 odds if you took him in the Future Wager.

7.         Desert Gate (7, no change). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 59-1

Though a hock infection ruled him out of the Juvenile, his form is looking better. He finished a length behind Brant when second in the Del Mar Futurity, and he filled the same position in the American Pharoah (G1). Though American Pharoah winner Intrepido let that form down in the Juvenile, Desert Gate’s form generally stacks up.

8.         Englishman (5, -3). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 40-1

Hasn’t raced since his 7 1/4-length victory on debut in a Churchill Downs maiden Sept. 19. The form has worked out OK rather than fantastically since then: second-placed White Tiger won at Churchill Downs Oct. 26, while Tagermeen and One Reward, third and fourth to Englishman, were second and third in a Churchill maiden Nov. 1.

9.         Intrepido (4, -5). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 34-1

The American Pharoah winner disappointed in the Juvenile, finishing 10 lengths behind Ted Noffey at the line. Taking a line through American Pharoah second Desert Gate via the latter’s Del Mar Futurity running, it wasn’t Intrepido’s true form. I’d prefer to see his next race before writing him off.

10.   Further Ado (9, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 21-1

Spendthrift Farm has a potentially strong hand for the Derby, owning not only Ted Noffey but also Further Ado, whose 20-length Keeneland victory Oct. 10 is the most remarkable maiden juvenile win this year. Remains in work and hopefully on track for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in late November.

11.   Incredibolt (10, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 34-1

Future Wager punters undoubtedly were impressed enough by Incredibolt’s victory in last week’s Oct. 26 Street Sense (G3) to think he could emulate Sovereignty by scoring a Street Sense-Kentucky Derby double. Just six individual horses ended the Future Wager at lower odds than the 34-1 at which Incredibolt ended.

12.   Talkin (11, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 57-1

The best guide to Talkin’s talent has been the form around him. Three horses he has beaten – Further Ado, Stradale, and Tartabull – have each won races in the interim, while another, Universe, was stakes-placed. Had some friends in Future Wager betting, and a pedigree that suggests some stamina.

13.   It’s Our Time (12, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 46-1

Future Wager punters seemed to remember his dazzling 17 3/4-length maiden victory as much as his fading fourth to Napoleon Solo in the Champagne Oct. 4 – a race in which he could have held second but for trying to keep up with the winner at a hot pace. May not be a natural 1 1/4-mile horse, however.

14.   Universe (13, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 77-1

Ran well without looking exceptional when placed in the Champagne and Street Sense. However, given that he’s by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) third-place finisher Global Campaign out of a Quality Road mare, he should improve as a three-year-old.

15.   Buetane (18, +3). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 6-5 (All other Colts and Geldings Odds)

Beaten convincingly by Ted Noffey in the Hopeful (G1), his form has been made to look better by Ted Noffey’s two subsequent Grade 1 victories and a convincing subsequent allowance win by Soldier N Diplomat, who was behind him in the Hopeful. Didn’t have an individual betting option available on him in Future Wager Pool 1.

16.   Gallivant (15, -2). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 134-1

Hasn’t reappeared on the worktab since last week’s six-furlong Bowman Mill S. at Keeneland. Future Wager punters clearly have doubts about his Derby prospects – they let him close at 134-1, even though he’s by Into Mischief, the sire of three Derby winners.

17.   Confessional (16, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 63-1

Back on the worktab Nov. 2 with a four-furlong breeze, his first since his maiden victory at Keeneland Oct. 16. Closed at 63-1 in Future Wager Pool 1.

18.   Soldier N Diplomat (16, -1). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 117-1

His one-mile allowance victory at Churchill Downs on Oct. 26 was a dominant one, but it didn’t lead to a pile-on from Future Wager punters. Still worth watching as the Derby preps come into view.

19.   Ewing (19, no change). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 45-1

On his way to Ocala for winter training after missing the Breeders’ Futurity. Unbeaten colt who created a strong impression with two Saratoga summer victories. Fancied strongly enough to close at 45-1 on the Future Wager market.

20.   Boyd (20, no change). Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds: 39-1

The form around his 5 3/4-length Del Mar maiden debut victory Sept. 7 hasn’t been bad – runner-up Cactus Charlie has been placed two further times, while fourth-placed Cherokee Nation pushed subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Mr. A. P. to a nose in his following start. Stamina may be his biggest query.

• Largest Gains: Mr. A. P. (new entry at number 2), Litmus Test (+9).
• Largest Fall: Intrepido (down 5).
• New to Derby Power Rankings this week: Mr. A. P. (2).
• Removed from Derby Power Rankings this week: Plutarch (8th last week).

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Super Corredora (9 last week, +8)

After earning a position on this list with her maiden victory, she stepped up in style in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The only question over her is whether the apparent speed bias at Del Mar masked the ability of some of her opponents. But she was impressive enough to earn top ranking, and her pedigree suggests she can stay 1 1/8 miles.

2.         Explora (4, +2)

Started as the favorite for the Juvenile Fillies after her Oak Leaf (G2) victory, but couldn’t get past Super Corredora. Nonetheless, she reinforced what many thought they saw from her Oak Leaf victory. Should be happy at 1 1/8 miles.

3.         Percy’s Bar (2, -1)

Backed up from her Alcibiades (G1) disqualification by again finishing in front of Tommy Jo, despite a hard bump coming around the final bend. Looks to be improving and should develop as a three-year-old.

4.         Tommy Jo (1 last week, -3)

May not have been suited by the wide trip on a track that favored on-pace runners, but battled bravely. It was the second time she finished behind Percy’s Bar, and it’s possible she may be best at shorter distances.

5.         Meaning (new entry)

Was given her chance in the Juvenile Fillies following a victory at Los Alamitos on her debut and proved worthy of her place, narrowly missing out on third. A $440,000 yearling purchase by Gun Runner out of an Into Mischief mare, she should improve with age.

6.         Bella Ballerina (5, -1)

Didn’t make an appearance this weekend, so she didn’t have a chance to either gain or lose significant ground herself. However, her easy Oct. 5 victory was made to look better when Debbie Doll, who was 4 1/4 lengths back in second that day, came out and won comfortably at Churchill Downs this weekend.

7.         Bottle of Rouge (3, -4)

Couldn’t muster enough early speed in the Juvenile Fillies and paid the price. But she was just 5 1/2 lengths from Super Corredora at the line, and she shouldn’t be ruled out of Oaks contention yet.

8.         La Wally (8, no change)

Ridden against her normal pattern in the Juvenile Fillies on a day where leaders were favored, but didn’t respond. It wasn’t her best form, and her second to Explora in the Oak Leaf is a better guide to her ability.

9.         Paige Turner (new entry)

Followed a second-place finish on her debut with a dominant maiden victory at Churchill Downs Oct. 31. Looked like a filly going places.

10.   La Ville Lumiere (new entry)

Another that was given a chance in the Juvenile Fillies after finishing third in the Oak Leaf. She didn’t disgrace herself with a seventh-place finish, 6 3/4 lengths behind Super Corredora, but she has some ground to make up to be an Oaks winner.

11.   Mythical (10, -1)

Apart from a bad performance in the Spinaway (G1), she has put up a number of good performances, most recently winning a Florida-bred stakes contest easily. Has plenty of talent, but there will be doubts about her stamina.

12.   Letmecounttheways (11, -1)

Another with a last-start victory over state-bred rivals, this time in the Maid of the Mist S. for New York-bred juvenile fillies at Belmont Oct. 25. This came after she put up great figures in her maiden victory Sept. 27. Stamina yet to be tested.

13.   Life of Joy (13, no change)

Last week’s Rags to Riches S. victory over The Grumpy Rabbit by this Brad Cox-trained filly was made to look a little better by the decent Juvenile Fillies efforts of Percy’s Bar and Tommy Jo, who beat The Grumpy Rabbit into third in the Alcibiades at their previous starts.

14.   Iron Orchard (6, -8)

The previously unbeaten filly stumbled out of the start before finishing a distant last in the Juvenile Fillies. It’s hard to know what to make of that effort from an Oaks perspective – she was clearly below her best, but the Frizette (G1) form may be a bit suspect.

• Largest Gains: Super Corredora (up 8 places), Meaning (new entry at number 5)
• Largest Fall: Iron Orchard (down 8 places)
• New to Oaks Power Rankings this week: Meaning, Paige Turner, La Ville Lumiere.
• Removed from Oaks Power Rankings this week: Rileytole (7th last week), Taken by the Wind (12th last week), Just Singing (14th last week).

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

• Week 4 -- Oct. 27, 2025
• Week 3 -- Oct. 21, 2025
• Week 2 -- Oct. 14, 2025
• Week 1 -- Oct. 7, 2025