Feeling the Derby Power: Kentucky Derby Power Rankings 2025 [Oct. 14]

Oct 14, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Tommy Jo wins the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

POWER RANKINGS: MAIDEN WINNERS JOIN THE RANKINGS

Week 2: For the next three weeks, most of the action on the Power Rankings will come from horses that aren’t running in top company.

This is because few juveniles of graded stakes class are likely to be seen until the end of this month, with the Breeders’ Cup races being the focus for most of the top juveniles. If any juvenile with graded stakes form runs, that most likely means they aren’t Breeders’ Cup-bound.

However, there are still plenty of juvenile races being staged. Some of these horses will have Derby and Oaks aspirations down the line, but they aren’t likely to be heading to Del Mar for the end-of-year juvenile championships.

Many of the best juvenile performances this past week have come from fillies. There won’t be much change to the Derby rankings as a result, though one colt in particular forced his way high onto the list with an extraordinary performance.

Otherwise, since we focused on the Derby Power Rankings last week, this week's write-up will focus on the Oaks Power Rankings, which we provided in list form only last week. The efforts we have seen in the past week have been enough to force three new fillies onto this list.

So here we go. Feel free to disagree – and to back your views up when the Future Wager options arrive.

Learn more about the Kentucky Derby Future Wager here.

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Tommy Jo (1 last week, no change)

Maintained her unbeaten record in the Alcibiades (G1), but only on protest, and wasn’t as impressive as she was in the Spinaway (G1). However, she may well have beaten Percy’s Bar had that filly not interfered with her, and she still deserves a top rating as a result.

2.         Percy’s Bar (2, no change)

Tommy Jo, shown finishing second to Percy's Bar, was awarded the Alcibiades via disqualification (Photo by Coady Media)

Ran a much-improved race in the Alcibiades, and might have beaten Tommy Jo had she not veered off a straight line and subsequently lost that race via disqualification. Deserves to be ranked second among Oaks prospects on that effort.

3.         Bottle of Rouge (3, no change)

Bottle of Rouge wins the Del Mar Debutante at Del Mar. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

Capped two good efforts with a decisive victory over subsequent Oak Leaf winner Explora in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). By a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner in Vino Rosso, so should handle a step up in distance.

4.         Explora (4, no change)

Explora wins the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Went down narrowly to stablemate Bottle of Rouge in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1) before blowing away her opponents in the 1 1/16-mile Oak Leaf (G2). Seemed to enjoy the extra distance and has plenty of stamina in her pedigree.

5.         Bella Ballerina (new entry)

Bella Ballerina wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

By Street Sense out of Pretty City Dancer, she’s bred to be good, and she looked to have inherited much of the family ability with a decisive maiden victory at Keeneland Oct. 5. Untested at the top level, but untapped in terms of ability.

6.         Iron Orchard (5, -1)

Iron Orchard wins the Frizette at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Unbeaten in three starts, the Authentic filly followed a decisive victory in the Seeking the Ante at Saratoga before a hard-fought triumph in the one-mile Frizette (G1). Form not as strong as some of those above her, but she’s done everything required to date.

7.         Rileytole (6, -1)

Won her Gulfstream Park maiden before being well beaten by Tommy Jo in the Spinaway. Came back over a mile to press Iron Orchard hard in the Frizette before going down narrowly. Improving all the time.

8.         La Wally (7, -1)

A maiden winner at Del Mar, she then finished third behind Bottle of Rouge and Explora in the Del Mar Debutante before a more distant second to Explora in the Oak Leaf, beaten nearly four lengths further in the latter. May enjoy longer trips.

9.         Super Corredora (new entry)

Followed maiden defeats to Bottle of Rouge and La Wally with a runaway maiden victory over one mile at Santa Anita, Oct. 11. By Gun Runner out of a Super Saver mare, so she should enjoy the Oaks trip.

10.   Taken by the Wind (8, -2)

Taken By The Wind wins the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Followed Saratoga maiden victory with a rally from midfield to take the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs. This filly could give trainer Kenny McPeek the chance for a second Oaks triumph in three years.

11.   Kingsolver (9, -2)

Kingsoler wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Won Schuylerville at Saratoga and then followed with a black-type second at Ellis Park over seven furlongs. Then scored nicely in a six-furlong allowance race at Keeneland Oct. 3. Has ability, but stamina is unproven.

12.   Camila Catalina (new entry)

Camila Catalina wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

After two minor placings in Del Mar maidens, trainer Robert Hess sent her east to Keeneland for a maiden, which she won decisively on Oct. 10. By a Santa Anita Derby winner in Rock Your World, so she has stamina potential.

13.   On Time Girl (10, -3)

On Time Girl wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Unbeaten in two starts: a maiden at Ellis Park in August and an allowance at Churchill Downs Sept. 11. Both were over six furlongs, so her stamina is unknown, but the two victories have been impressive.

14.   The Grumpy Rabbit (11, -3)

The Grumpy Rabbit wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Third on turf on debut, this McPeek-trained filly then switched to dirt to win her maiden at Ellis Park on Aug. 24. That was enough to see her take on the Alcibiades, where she ran nicely for third without threatening Tommy Jo and Percy’s Bar. May improve further.

Ranking Summary:

• Largest Gain: Bella Ballerina (new entry at number 5)
• Largest Fall: On Time Girl, The Grumpy Rabbit (both down three places)
• New to Oaks Power Rankings this week: Bella Ballerina, Super Corredora, and Camila Catalina.
• Removed from Oaks Power Rankings this week: Go to Girl (12th last week), Five Bars (13th last week), Ornellaia (14th last week).

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey (1, no change)

Next target: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

2.         Brant (2, no change)

Next target: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

3.         Napoleon Solo (3, no change)

Set to miss Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Taking a break before heading to Palm Meadows training center in Florida for the winter.

4.         Intrepido (4, no change)

Likely to contest Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but will need to be supplemented for $100,000.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

5.         Blackout Time (5, no change)

Next start: Uncertain.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blackout Time

6.         Desert Gate (6, no change)

Under consideration for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

7.         Englishman (7, no change)

Likely next to be seen at Churchill Downs fall meet, possibly in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) or a one-turn allowance.

8.         Plutarch (8, no change)

Under consideration for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

9.         Further Ado (new entry)

This week’s star performer. Was expected to run well at Keeneland after finishing third to subsequent Champagne (G1) second-place finisher Talkin in a Saratoga maiden, but few expected a 20-length demolition in quick time. The colt clearly relished the step up to 1 1/16 miles. Headed to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

10.   It’s Our Time (9, -1)

Could head to Churchill Downs for the fall meet.

11.   Talkin (10, -1)

Next start: Uncertain.

12.   Universe (11, -1)

Next start: Uncertain.

13.   Litmus Test (12, -1)

Under consideration for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

14.   Buetane (13, -1)

Next start: Uncertain.

15.   Ewing (14, -1)

Unlikely to race until he turns three.

16.   Boyd (15, -1)

Next start: Uncertain.

17.   Super Kick (16, -1)

Breezing at Turfway Park. Next start unknown.

18.   Spice Runner (17, -1)

Next start unclear.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Spice Runner

19.   Spun D M C (18, -1)

Working at Churchill Downs. Could head to Churchill fall meet.

20.   Rancho Santa Fe (new entry)

A tough winner over 1 1/16 miles in a Keeneland Allowance Optional Claiming Oct. 11, making him unbeaten in two starts. By Tapit out of a Smart Strike mare, so Derby stamina should not be an issue.

Ranking Summary:

• Largest Gain: Further Ado (new entry at number 9)
• Largest Fall: It’s Our Time, Talkin, Universe, Litmus Test, Buetane, Ewing, Boyd, Super Kick, Spice Runner, Spun D M C (all down one place)
• New to Derby Power Rankings this week: Further Ado, Rancho Santa Fe.
• Removed from Derby Power Rankings this week: Bust Out (19th last week), Outfielder (20th last week).