Inside the Kentucky Derby -- Preakness Stakes Preview

A Different Kind of Preakness

This year’s Preakness moves to Laurel Park while Pimlico undergoes redevelopment. With attendance capped around 4,800, the setting may feel different, but the betting puzzle is as intriguing as ever.

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, this isn’t a race loaded with established standouts. Instead, it’s a tightly matched group where favoritism could hover in the 4-1 to 6-1 range — a sign of uncertainty and opportunity.

“This feels like a fun betting race,” Rogers said. “It’s hard to separate them.”

The Pace Question

The biggest handicapping debate centers on early speed.

Several horses — Taj Mahal, Napoleon Solo, Chip Honcho, Corona de Oro, Great White, Pretty Boy Maya — prefer to be forwardly placed. On paper, that suggests a contested pace.

And when $2 million is on the line, someone usually moves early.

If that happens, the race could collapse late — setting the table for closers who benefit from fast fractions.

But as Kerstein pointed out, sometimes when everyone expects speed, riders adjust. If several jockeys take back, the complexion changes.

Still, the prevailing view? Expect pressure up front.

Horses Drawing Attention

Incredibolt
A late decision to run in the Preakness after a better-than-it-looked sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Riley Mott’s colt had seven weeks between races before the Derby and may have needed that start. With a likely favorable pace setup, he’s one of the logical contenders.

Ocelli
Still a maiden, but finished third at 70-1 in the Derby after closing into a fast pace. The scenario could set up similarly here. The question isn’t talent — it’s price. At shorter odds, is he worth it?

Iron Honor
Possibly the most talented horse in the field. His Gotham win was strong, but his Wood Memorial effort was puzzling. Blinkers come off for Chad Brown. If you draw a line through the Wood, he’s a major player — but the pace setup may not be ideal.

Fresh Faces vs. Derby Alumni

One of the ongoing Preakness storylines is whether Derby runners hold an edge.

Kerstein and Rogers both leaned toward horses exiting the Derby, believing the tough race two weeks ago may sharpen rather than dull their fitness — especially for runners like Incredibolt and Ocelli who didn’t endure brutal trips.

Meanwhile, Back at Churchill Downs

While the Preakness runs in Maryland, Churchill Downs hosts Downs After Dark: Bourbon, Bets, and Bow Ties.

The $250,000 Louisville Stakes features Burnham Square, who looks formidable at 2-5 on the morning line after developing into one of the top turf marathoners in the country.

With live music, bourbon bars, trivia, and a simulcast of the Preakness on the big board, it promises a full evening of racing under the lights.