Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: How the rankings have developed over 30 weeks

Apr 29, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Putting together the inaugural Kentucky Derby (G1) Power Rankings has been an entertaining and fascinating exercise.

More than anything, it’s highlighted the huge difficulty of identifying Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) horses early.

The first Power Rankings were put together on Oct. 7 last year, immediately after the big weekend of three juvenile Grade 1 races, the Champagne, Breeders’ Futurity, and American Pharoah. It’s a time when the likely division leaders, and by default, leading early Kentucky Derby prospects, emerge.

We deliberately made it a 20-horse list rather than a top 10, a dozen, or any other number, because that’s the Derby field limit. But a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like not a single horse on the first Derby Power Rankings list was going to start in the Run for the Roses.

The leaderboard after the Road to the Kentucky Derby was finished and showed none of the horses on the initial list among the top 20 points scorers. As it turns out, defections have meant two horses on the first list are in the field: Intrepido (fifth on the first rankings list) and Litmus Test (12th).

When the first Power Rankings came out, 11 of the final Derby field hadn’t started a race: Albus, Chief Wallabee, Danon Bourbon, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Great White, Potente, Right to Party, Six Speed, So Happy, and The Puma.

By Nov. 3, immediately after the Breeders’ Cup, a couple more Derby horses had made the list: Further Ado and Incredibolt. On the final list of 2025, the number of eventual final field Derby runners was six, with the aforementioned quartet joined by current morning-line favorite Renegade and Golden Tempo.

It wasn’t too much different come the first rankings of February, immediately following the Holy Bull (G3). The list had a new leader for the first time, with Ted Noffey's injury forcing him off the list and being replaced by another eventual Derby non-runner, Nearly. The number of eventual Derby runners on the list was now nine, with the addition of Commandment, So Happy, and Six Speed.

We had to wait until the third week of March before half the Derby field had made the rankings. On that list, we had Commandment (2), Renegade (4), Chief Wallabee (5), The Puma (8), Further Ado (10), Litmus Test (11), Incredibolt (15), Potente (16), Intrepido (17), and Golden Tempo (18). So Happy and Six Speed had fallen off, but they would rejoin a little later.

The fact that 10 Derby horses were still not on the list highlights how important the final preps are. Eight Derby runners did not make the Power Rankings list at any point until the Championship Series races began – Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, Fulleffort, Albus, Right to Party, and Great White.

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This tale also highlights why “all other three-year-olds” is always the most popular option in the early Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. As late as Pool 4 (Feb. 13-15), “all other three-year-olds” was still the favored option at 9-2, even with 13 eventual Derby runners among the 39 horses available for individual betting.

The picture was similar for the Oaks Power Rankings. The first list of 14 (the Oaks field limit) had three horses that were in the final field drawn on Saturday, though one of those (Bottle of Rouge) has since been withdrawn, leaving just Percy’s Bar and Explora from the original list. By the end of the year, the number was six (not counting Bottle of Rouge), with the addition of Zany, Bella Ballerina, Meaning, and Counting Stars.

By the time of the sole Oaks Future Wager in mid-March, there were still only six, with Percy’s Bar having been removed due to her disappearance from the worktab, to be replaced by Dazzling Dame. The 39-horse Future Wager list, however, did include Percy’s Bar, along with other Oaks runners that weren’t in the top-14 Rankings: Brooklyn Blonde, Nycon, Pashmina, Prom Queen, and Search Party.

Though the early Power Rankings featured few eventual Derby and Oaks runners, it doesn’t mean they were not worthwhile. Excitement about these races starts from the moment the Derby Road and Oaks Road begin, and the Power Rankings are as much a snapshot of where the Derby and Oaks pictures are at that point as they are a likely predictor.

Interestingly, unlike the Derby field, only Zany, Always a Runner, Nycon, Prom Queen, and Pashmina among the fillies set to start the Oaks had not raced at the time of the first Power Rankings.

The final Power Rankings prior to the Derby and Oaks both include changes at the top following the post position draw, which not everyone will agree with. And just for a bit of nostalgia, we’re going to include the first week that each horse appeared on the Power Rankings.

As always, feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings and to back your own judgment this weekend, when the two big races finally arrive.

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.      Commandment (2, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1; Post Position: 6.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 14 (Jan. 6)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Commandment

The horse nobody wanted to ride now sits atop these rankings after the post position draw. An adaptable sort, Commandment should be very happy coming out of gate six. From his gate, Luis Saez will hope to get the Florida Derby (G1) winner a nice slot off the fence and come with his customary late run. He hasn’t dazzled in training, but according to his trainer, Brad Cox, he never does. Raceday is what counts, and he’s proven himself there frequently.

2.      Renegade (1, -1)

Morning-Line Odds: 4-1; Post Position: 1.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 10 (Dec. 9)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Renegade

Gate one was not what Renegade’s connections would have liked for this race. Given he’s a closer, the last place he wants to be is stuck on the fence with traffic problems. It was a mild surprise that he remained the morning-line favorite after the draw, given that he will need a bit of luck. But then, in a 20-horse field, a closer is always likely to need some luck anyway, and he’s been very impressive as a three-year-old.

3.      Chief Wallabee (3, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 8-1; Post Position: 12.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 22 (March 3).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Chief Wallabee

Chances are, the Chief Wallabee team would have been extremely happy with gate 12. Junior Alvarado, who piloted Sovereignty home with a great run from the rear last year, can do the same with the lightly raced son of Constitution. His work with blinkers has been excellent, and if he can deliver his best while wearing them in the race, he’s got every chance of giving Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott consecutive Derby victories.

4.      Further Ado (4, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1; Post Position: 17.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 2 (Oct. 14).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Further Ado

The Blue Grass (G1) victor’s gate is arguably a bit wide, but he has speed runners Pavlovian and Six Speed immediately to his inside, so he should get a good cart across in the stretch. So far, he’s impressed with his workouts at Churchill Downs, and he should lack nothing in terms of readiness. There’s still the doubt about whether he can tap into all his ability away from Keeneland; if he does, he’s a serious winning chance.

5.      The Puma (5, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1; Post Position: 9.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 23 (March 11).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: The Puma

Another whose prospects were not harmed by the post-position draw. The only thing Javier Castellano will hope for is plenty of racing room, which seems to suit him best. He’s continued to improve with every trip to the races, and there’s been nothing wrong with his work leading into the race. Given that most Derby winners in recent years were beaten at their previous start while putting in very good performances, the omens are strong for The Puma.

6.      Emerging Market (6, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1; Post Position: 14.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 25 (March 24).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Emerging Market

History and inexperience work against the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner for the Kentucky Derby. Talent, however, doesn’t. He also has one of the best big-race riders around, Flavien Prat, to guide him. Though he needs to end a 143-year-old record against Derby runners with only two prior starts, the record is skewed because few have attempted it. In the last 40 years, four horses (Shaamit, Workforce, Ruler of the World, and Desert Crown) have won the Epsom Derby with two previous starts, along with one (Lammtarra) who’d raced just once. A different race for sure, but there are often big fields at Epsom as well. History is there to be made, and he shouldn’t be ignored.

7.      So Happy (8, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1; Post Position: 8.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 15 (Jan. 13).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: So Happy

Drawn well at gate eight, the Mark Glatt trainee has done well since his Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory, putting in a bullet at Santa Anita April 17 prior to a handy breeze of 1:00.2 at Churchill Downs April 24. Has a lot of sentiment on his side, and a lot of class – not to mention the wisdom of two-time Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith.

8.      Potente (9, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1; Post Position: 13.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 23 (March 11).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Potente

When Bob Baffert’s Derby runners work quickly leading into the big race, people take note. And with good reason, given Baffert’s record in the Derby. With five furlongs in 57.80 seconds April 26, Potente is obviously in good shape. Gate 13 may aid him, though he will potentially have Pavlovian and Six Speed crossing him from gates to his outside. Chances are he’ll be well-backed for the big race.

9.      Incredibolt (10, +1)

Morning-Line Odds:20-1; Post Position: 11.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 4 (Oct. 28).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Incredibolt

We know he likes Churchill Downs, and we know he can finish a race strong. The big question is, does he have the class? There have definitely been doubts about the fields he beat in the Street Sense (G3) and the Virginia Derby, but the Holy Bull run was too far below par to form any judgment out of that. Not the easiest to assess as a result.

10.  Pavlovian (12, +2)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 15.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 25 (March 24).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Pavlovian

Having re-watched the Louisiana Derby, I feel a little bit better about Pavlovian. Though the track was fast, his early times from the front were scorching, and he could easily have faded. Instead, he fought strongly to the line. If you think Emerging Market is any sort of hope, you can’t really ignore a horse that pushed him to a head in the Louisiana Derby.

11.  Golden Tempo (11, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 18.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 12 (Dec. 23).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Golden Tempo

Another who doesn’t seem the most likely Derby winner. He seemed to have his chance in the Louisiana Derby after making a strong run on the final bend and getting within striking distance at the top of the stretch. He does at least have the benefit of seeming certain to stay 1 1/4 miles strongly.

12.  Danon Bourbon (15, +3)

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1; Post Position: 7.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 26 (March 31).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Danon Bourbon

Stamina is unlikely to be an issue for Danon Bourbon. Nor does his pattern of racing – he is generally a stalker, and he should get a nice position from gate seven. The big questions are over how good he is – the Japanese form is hard to assess – and how his rider, Atsuya Nishimura, will cope with his first visit to Churchill Downs.

13.  Wonder Dean (13, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 10.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 26 (March 31).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Wonder Dean

Doesn’t have the same question over jockeyship as his compatriot Danon Bourbon does, given that his rider, Ryusei Sakai, was two noses away from a Derby victory two years ago. The class question, however, is very much the same, especially given the lack of victories in this race out of the UAE Derby (G2).

14.  Fulleffort (14, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1; Post Position: 19.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 25 (March 24).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Fulleffort

Seems to have handled dirt well in training at Churchill Downs – not really surprising given his pedigree, but reassuring nonetheless given all his starts have been on turf or Tapeta. Gate 19 isn’t very helpful, however. There is also the class question to be answered, though recent Derby runners out of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) have performed well.

15.  Albus (17, +2)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 2.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 27 (April 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Albus

If you based your views of Albus solely on his Wood Memorial (G2) effort, you’d question whether gate two would suit him. However, his previous races, including his large-margin maiden victory at Tampa Bay Feb. 27, came from on the speed, so he doesn’t have to race as a closer. Doubts do remain about whether he’s up to this level.

16.  Litmus Test (re-entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1; Post Position: 4.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 1 (Oct. 7)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Litmus Test

Back in the field following defections, and seems to be working well. But he’ll need to improve a lot on his Arkansas Derby (G1) effort if he’s going to be any factor here.

17.  Right to Party (19, +2)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 5.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 27 (April 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Right to Party

Kenny McPeek knows what it takes to win this race, having won it with Mystik Dan and finishing second with Tejano Run. On those grounds, Right to Party deserves to be respected, but he’s got a lot of improving to do on his Wood Memorial second-place finish to imagine him emulating the aforementioned McPeek pair.

18.  Intrepido (18, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1; Post Position: 3.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 1 (April 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Intrepido

If he’s able to get back to the level that saw him win the American Pharoah (G1) and finish second in the Robert B. Lewis, he’s not without a shot. But his trainer has expressed displeasure with the faster-than-expected speed of his recent works, and it would be a surprise if he turned his form around.

19.  Six Speed (20, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1; Post Position: 16.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 17 (Jan. 27).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Six Speed

If you’re laying odds on who will be first past the winning post on the first occasion in the Kentucky Derby, Six Speed would be among the top two or three. But he’ll need to rate more kindly than he did in the UAE Derby to have any chance of being in contention the second time past the post, when it matters. He does at least have a Derby-winning rider in Brian Hernandez, Jr. to guide him.

20.  Great White (new entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1; Post Position: 20.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 30 (April 28).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Great White

If the Derby was being held on a Tapeta surface, he might have some chance, as he showed ability on that surface with his John Battaglia Memorial victory at Turfway Park. But fifth placing in the Blue Grass, 22 1/4 lengths behind Further Ado, on his dirt debut, doesn’t suggest he’s going to be much of a factor. Strange things have happened in the Derby over the years, but a placing in any of the exotic rungs for Great White would be up there with the strangest.

Largest gain: Danon Bourbon (up 3).

Largest fall: Renegade (down 1).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Great White (20th)

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Litmus Test (16th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Silent Tactic (7th last week), Chip Honcho (16th last week).

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Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.      Meaning (1, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 5-1; Post Position: 5.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 5 (Nov. 3).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Meaning

Of the top horses in the Oaks market, Meaning probably came out best from the post position draw with gate five. Her first work at Churchill Downs on April 24 was a good one as well, and she has every chance of performing well.

2.      Percy’s Bar (3, -1)

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1; Post Position: 9.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 1 (Oct. 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Percy's Bar

After several bullet works at Keeneland, Percy’s Bar was given an easier time in her latest recorded work, putting up 49.60 seconds for four furlongs on April 23. That’s nothing to be concerned about; what may not help her is drawing gate 11, so she is unlikely to get the dream rail passage she got in the Ashland (G1). Still has enough class to be a factor.

3.      Zany (3, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 4-1; Post Position: 2.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 10 (Dec. 9)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Zany

Zany will get more cover than she did in the Ashland after drawing post two. She continued to work solidly at Palm Beach Downs prior to her arrival at Churchill Downs, and she should be a factor. The main question is whether she’s quite as good as she seemed when winning the Demoiselle (G2) in December. Her trainer has a very good record in this race.

4.      Explora (4, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1; Post Position: 1.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 1 (Oct. 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Explora

Gate one may not be ideal for Explora, but she has generally shown enough gate speed to suggest she should not be hampered by it too much. Missing the Fantasy (G2) wasn’t the best prep for her, but her work has been good in the meantime, and it’s hard to knock a filly that hasn’t finished out of the first two in seven starts.

5.      Counting Stars (5, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 8-1; Post Position: 4.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 13 (Dec. 30).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Counting Stars

Talented, and her efforts at Oaklawn Park suggest she has a great chance if she puts her best foot forward. Unfortunately, there have been occasions when she hasn’t, but it’s best not to rely on that happening when handicapping her Oaks chances.

6.      Always a Runner (6, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1; Post Position: 7.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 27 (April 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Always a Runner

Like her stable companion, Emerging Market, she’s looking to win this at her third start. Both will be running at Churchill Downs 84 days after making winning debuts at Tampa Bay Downs. The strength of the field Always a Runner beat in the Gazelle (G3) is questionable, but she’s heading in the right direction.

7.      Bella Ballerina (7, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1; Post Position: 10.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 2 (Oct. 14).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Bella Ballerina

Has her work program aimed at getting her to relax more worked? It’s possibly going to be harder to implement from post position 11, but she should get her chance. Shouldn’t be forgotten.

8.      Prom Queen (8, no change)

Morning-Line Odds: 8-1; Post Position: 8.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 26 (March 31).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Prom Queen

Once again, the question is over the quality of the horses she beat at her qualifying start for this race, in her case, the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). What she does obviously have on her side is raw ability. Gate nine should allow Javier Castellano to find a good slot for her.

9.      Brooklyn Blonde (new entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 12

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 30 (April 28).

Made the field after several withdrawals, and shouldn’t be underestimated now that she’s in the field. If you like Meaning’s chances, then you should respect the filly that pushed her hard in the Santa Anita Oaks, though gate 13 may not be ideal.

10.  Pashmina (11, +1)

Morning-Line Odds:30-1; Post Position: 11.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 27 (April 7).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Pashmina

Fought well behind Always a Runner in the Gazelle, but prior to then, her efforts suggested she was a touch below the best fillies. Victory would be a surprise.

11.  Search Party (12, +1)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 3.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 19 (Feb. 10).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Search Party

Honest but well beaten in the Fantasy behind her stable companion Counting Stars. Turning that form around would be a major surprise.

12.  Dazzling Dame (re-entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 6.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 14 (Jan. 6).

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Dazzling Dame

Won the Busanda S. in style but didn’t seem to stay when beaten in the Virginia Oaks. Her conqueror from that race won’t be at Churchill Downs, but she might have been a better chance over seven furlongs in the Eight Belles (G2).

13.  Lovely Grey (new entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1; Post Position: 13.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 30 (April 28).

Into the field with the scratch of Bottle of Rouge. Second twice in prep races at Turfway Park, which doesn’t really look like Kentucky Oaks-winning form.

14.  Nycon (new entry)

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1; Post Position: 14.

First Power Rankings Appearance: Week 30 (April 28).

A late addition to the field following the withdrawal of My Miss Mo. Congratulations to connections for getting in the field, but their filly will need a massive improvement on her Busher S. second-place finish and her Gazelle fourth to be competitive.

Largest gain: Meaning, Pashmina, Search Party (all up 1).

Largest fall: Percy’s Bar (down 1).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Brooklyn Blonde (9th), Lovely Grey (13th), Nycon (14th).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: Dazzling Dame (12th).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: She Be Smooth (9th last week), Bottle of Rouge (10th last week), My Miss Mo (13th last week), Paradise (14th last week).