Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: How the rankings worked out on the big days

May 06, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Golden Tempo wins the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.(Photo by Horsephotos.com)

'Unless he can find a bit more early speed, his Derby prospects probably depend on a Rich Strike-like suicidal early pace.'

Those were the words used in the Week 20 Power Rankings column on Feb. 17 to describe the chances Golden Tempo might have of triumphing on the First Saturday in May. It came after his third-place finish in the Risen Star (G2), six lengths behind winner Paladin (a penny for the thoughts of his team after the Derby).

I’d like to claim some sort of prescience from this observation, and it wasn’t the last time the rankings made reference to Golden Tempo’s chances being best with a very strong pace. Unfortunately, the final Power Rankings, in which he ranked number 11, made the not-very-accurate comment “another who doesn’t seem the most likely Derby winner,” though it did add “he does at least have the benefit of seeming certain to stay 1 1/4 miles strongly.”

Golden Tempo was first added to the Power Rankings just before Christmas, at position 19 after his last-to-first maiden victory over six furlongs. The horse that finished second that day, Fancy Fairlane, went on to win his next start, a six-furlong maiden at Oaklawn Park on March 1, while three other horses in that race – Hot Days Ahead, Easy Munnings, and Walkers Creek – have also won races in the interim.

He remained there the following week before disappearing for the first rankings of 2026, replaced by Commandment, Nearly, Strategic Risk, and My World. He was left out of Future Wager Pool 3 in mid-January, but wasn’t forgotten by punters for the Lecomte (G3) that weekend, when he was made the favorite ahead of five others that were individual options in Pool 3.

After winning the Lecomte, Golden Tempo returned to the rankings at position 12, and despite third-place finishes in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (G2), maintained his spot in the rankings, rising no higher than 10 and as low as 18.

Runner-up Renegade was a much more regular presence, first making the Power Rankings on Dec. 9 at position 16 after finishing second to Paladin (there’s that name again) in the Remsen (G2). After moving up a couple of spots in between starts, he catapulted up to number four with his Sam F. Davis S. victory in early February.

He hit the top of the leaderboard at the end of March when he won the Arkansas Derby (G1), but ended up number two behind Commandment when he drew barrier one – which, given the buffeting he received in the first furlong, may have been costly, though he was still able to run a fantastic race.

Third-place finisher Ocelli appeared on the Power Rankings … never. That’s not really a surprise, given his form in 2026 was third in a maiden (behind subsequent brief Power Rankings inductee Reagan’s Honor), sixth in Renegade’s Sam F. Davis, sixth in Incredibolt’s Virginia Derby, and third in what seemed a questionable Wood Memorial (G2). He would have made the final Power Rankings were he in the final field, but he still needed a scratch to earn a start at that point.

Of the other horses that were prominent in the final pre-Derby Power Rankings, it appears Commandment and Further Ado didn’t quite run their race – perhaps both being asked to go a bit early, and not being as well suited by the speed as the closers were. Chief Wallabee ran well for fourth, while other leading rankers Emerging Market and So Happy were also compromised by being near the hot speed.

Along with the top two, perhaps the best performance came from Danon Bourbon, who was the only horse within seven lengths of the winner that had been closer than 10th in running for the first three-quarters of a mile. Hopefully, he will be seen in the U.S. again this year.

The Kentucky Oaks (G1) also went to a horse in the middle of the Power Rankings prior to the race – sixth-ranked Always a Runner. She wasn’t ranked until after her Gazelle (G3) triumph in early April; unlike Golden Tempo, whose maiden win earned him a spot in the rankings, Always a Runner was left off after recording a modest 77 Brisnet Speed Rating in her Tampa Bay maiden win.

In the final Power Rankings, the column said: “The strength of the field Always a Runner beat in the Gazelle is questionable, but she’s heading in the right direction.” In a division that hadn’t produced any standouts, she was clearly the best on Oaks Day.

Unlike with the colts, the Californian form proved solid for the Oaks, with the final Rankings leader Meaning finishing second and fourth-ranked Explora filling that position in the big race. Fifth-ranked Counting Stars showed her form with Explora in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park was accurate, as they again finished within a length of each other.

The disappointments were the first two in the Ashland (G1), Zany and Percy’s Bar (third and second in the final Power Rankings). Sent out favorite and second-favorite, they seemed to have their chance when finishing sixth and seventh. As with Blue Grass winner Further Ado in the Derby, the Keeneland prep form didn’t work out at Churchill Downs.

Next week, we’ll revisit the Power Rankings, with a forecast about how the three-year-old colts’ and fillies’ divisions at the Derby and Oaks distances will play out for the rest of the year.

In the meantime, congratulations to the connections of Golden Tempo and Always a Runner. Even getting to the start is a challenge, let alone winning, so well done to their respective teams.