Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Key rider bookings made

Apr 15, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Week 28: With the preps over, the final preparation begins.

This is always an intriguing time leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). Final works are scheduled, and travel to Louisville is planned. Decisions are contemplated on whether fringe contenders will take their place, and fitness invariably rules some horses out, as it did with Class President in the past week.

Most notably, jockey bookings are confirmed. The changes to this week’s Power Rankings mostly reflect the rider bookings that have been made; though it is not the only determining factor, experience in the big races certainly helps, especially when it comes to navigating through a potential 20-horse field.

This week’s column takes a look at the rider bookings we know about, as well as including the latest Fair Odds assessment of potential Derby and Oaks runners that we have on TwinSpires.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment on the first two days of May, when the two big races finally arrive.

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Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Renegade (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 125 (3rd)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 9-2

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

With Irad Ortiz Jr. settling on him as his Derby ride, Renegade now appears the most likely morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby – though punters can pull out a surprise on the day. It couldn't have been an easy decision for him and agent Steve Rushing, especially after Further Ado’s high-rating Blue Grass (G1) demolition, but Renegade definitely ticks the most boxes when it comes to Derby candidates: class, form, stamina, and ability on multiple racetracks. Ortiz hasn’t reached the frame in nine Derby rides, but he’s a champion and well on the way to becoming the most successful Breeders’ Cup jockey ever, so he’s sent a strong signal to the market.

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 150 (1st)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 6-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

If there’s a horse that comes close to ticking as many boxes as Renegade for the Derby, it’s Commandment, given the strength of the Florida form. The biggest puzzle around him is that he keeps getting new jockeys; Ortiz rode him in the Fountain of Youth only to then choose Renegade in the Arkansas Derby rather than him in the Florida Derby (G1), and his Florida Derby rider, Flavien Prat, had earlier committed himself to Emerging Market. His latest rider, Luis Saez, knows what it’s like to get past the Kentucky Derby post first but not the ultimate winning feeling, having been aboard the disqualified Maximum Security in 2019.

3.         Further Ado (4, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 135 (2nd)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 5-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

As is well known, the biggest issue for Further Ado is whether he can reproduce his Keeneland form on another track. To date, he hasn’t – not even when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs; the underlying rating figures, not to mention the visuals, didn’t come close to matching wins in Lexington. However, he is getting a boost in the rankings this week. The fact that Irad Ortiz, Jr. chose Renegade over him is somewhat of a negative, but instead, he’s going to be ridden by John Velazquez, who has more Kentucky Derby victories (three, plus being first past the post aboard subsequently-disqualified Medina Spirit) than any active jockey. That has to be a plus.

4.         The Puma (3, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (6th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 10-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: The Puma

Three years ago, a pair of Venezuelans – jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado – won the Kentucky Derby with Florida Derby runner-up Mage. In 2026, the same combination heads to Churchill Downs with another Florida Derby second-place finisher, The Puma. In an eventful year for Venezuela, in which political turmoil was followed by victory over the United States in the World Baseball Classic final, could there be another major Venezuelan sporting triumph on U.S. soil? If you’re worried about his Florida Derby defeat, it’s worth noting that, not counting the unusual Covid year of 2020, no last-start winner since Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 has gone on to win the big race.

5.         Chief Wallabee (5, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (21st)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 10-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chief Wallabee

The withdrawal of Class President from the Derby means Chief Wallabee needs only one more defection to earn a start, and all signs suggest that Stark Contrast will provide that defection by targeting the American Turf (G1) instead. Given that presumption, he’s clearly one of the leading chances, and he’s having blinkers added to improve concentration that his team felt he may have lacked when not quite rounding off his Florida Derby effort. He won’t lack anything in horsemanship with last year’s successful rider, Junior Alvarado, aboard.

6.         Emerging Market (7, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (8th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Emerging Market

Emerging Market gets a boost in the rankings this week due to the expected confirmation that Flavien Prat is riding him, apparently honoring a commitment he made after the Louisiana Derby (G2) victory. The French native won the last two Eclipse Awards for outstanding jockey and is a big-race specialist. He has won a Kentucky Derby, though he doesn’t yet know the feeling of hitting the finish line first – his sole victory was aboard the promoted Country House in 2019.

7.         Silent Tactic (6, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (7th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 30-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

Whether Silent Tactic is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby is unclear, having seemingly been without excuse when defeated by Renegade in the Arkansas Derby (G1). But his form, and the fact Renegade is so highly rated, means Silent Tactic is an absolute must for anyone playing exotics – especially as he looks certain to stay 1 1/4 miles. Regular rider Cristian Torres, 28, will have his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

8.         So Happy (8, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 115 (4th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 15-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: So Happy

Who better to have as your partner in seeking Kentucky Derby glory than the winningest Breeders’ Cup rider of all time and the last jockey to complete the Triple Crown? So Happy gets the benefit of having Hall of Famer Mike Smith as his partner. He may well require solid handling, given the continued doubts about his stamina potential as a son of champion sprinter Runhappy.

9.         Incredibolt (10, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (13th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 25-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

Incredibolt is getting a boost for no other reason than having a stakes victory at Churchill Downs to his credit.  That came in the Street Sense (G3), a race Sovereignty used as his main two-year-old springboard towards his ultimate Kentucky Derby success. Jaime Torres, who won the 2024 Preakness (G1) aboard Seize the Grey, takes the mount.

10.   Pavlovian (9, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 70 (11th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 40-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Pavlovian

Pavlovian’s form turnaround, which saw him move from modest Californian form to winning the Sunland Derby and nearly winning the Louisiana Derby, has been partially attributed to maturity and more aggressive riding. But it’s also worth noting that it’s only in his last two starts that he’s been united with jockey Edwin Maldonado. The pair will be united again on the first Saturday in May.

11.   Potente (11, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (10th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 15-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Potente

Potente will be having just his fourth start when he contests the Kentucky Derby. He contests it, having not raced as a juvenile – something that was seen as a big negative until recent victories by Justify (from the same yard) and Mage. Leading Californian rider Juan Hernandez will be aboard.

12.   Golden Tempo (12, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (14th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 30-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

Jose Ortiz partnered with Golden Tempo through the preps at Fair Grounds and is set to stick with the son of Curlin at Churchill Downs. He’s another to include for exotics as being just the type to run into a placing late.

13.   Wonder Dean (15, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (Euro-ME Series) (1st)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 25-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Wonder Dean

Cristian Demuro partnered with Wonder Dean to UAE Derby (G2) success, but for the big day at Churchill Downs, he gets the benefit of big-race rider Ryusei Sakai. As you probably recall, Sakai is the regular rider of Forever Young; not only has he won a Breeders’ Cup Classic and two Saudi Cups, but Sakai was also aboard when Forever Young was two noses away from winning the Kentucky Derby.

14.   Fulleffort (14, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 110 (5th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Fulleffort

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Fulleffort gets a new rider for the Kentucky Derby, but it’s a good one. Tyler Gaffalione has been one of the best riders in the United States in recent years, and his record includes a Preakness win on War of Will and a very close Kentucky Derby second on Sierra Leone. Fulleffort will start at longer odds than Sierra Leone, but he can’t be ignored if he lives up to his dirt pedigree.

15.   Danon Bourbon (16, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 40 (Japan Series) (1st)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Danon Bourbon

The unbeaten Japanese runner will be ridden at Churchill Downs by 26-year-old Atsuya Nishimura, who was aboard when Danon Bourbon took out the Fukuryu S. to round out the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

16.   Albus (17, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (9th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 40-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Albus 

With Jaime Torres sticking with Incredibolt, the mount on stable companion Albus goes to Manny Franco. The Wood Memorial (G2) winner won’t lack for jockeyship, as Franco’s career includes a Belmont win and a Kentucky Derby second-place finish, both on Tiz the Law, along with two Breeders’ Cup successes.

17.   Iron Honor (18, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (17th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Iron Honor

It’s not clear at this point whether Iron Honor will take his place in the Kentucky Derby following his disappointing effort in the Wood Memorial. If he does, he’ll need a new rider, as regular partner Manny Franco has hopped off him to ride Albus.

18.   Right to Party (19, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 65 (12th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Right to Party

Kenny McPeek’s sole likely Derby runner will be ridden by 20-year-old Christopher Elliott, who piloted the son of Constitution into placings in the Gotham (G3) and Wood Memorial. It will be Elliott’s first Kentucky Derby; if he needs advice on what to do, he needs to go no further than his father, Stewart, who won the 2004 Derby on Smarty Jones.

19.   Six Speed (20, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 80 (Euro-ME Series) (2nd)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 40-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Six Speed

The possible pacesetter for the Kentucky Derby was ridden throughout his Dubai campaign by Mickael Barzalona, one of the top riders in Europe and twice a Breeders’ Cup winner. No jockey is confirmed for Churchill Downs yet; whether Barzalona rides him might depend on whether he is offered a leading chance in the 2,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket the same day as the Derby.

20.   Ottinho (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 56 (15th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Ottinho

Makes the list this week on account of having enough points to earn a start, and with the defection of Class President due to injury. It’s still not certain he’s going to turn up, and his distant second to Further Ado in the Blue Grass didn’t suggest he’s a likely winning chance if he does run. With the uncertainty around his participation, no rider has been confirmed.

Largest gain: Wonder Dean (up 2).

Largest fall: The Puma, Silent Tactic, Pavlovian (all down 1).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Ottinho (20th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Class President (13th last week).

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Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Meaning (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 126 (1st)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 9-2

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

 

2.         Zany (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 80 (8th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 4-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

 

3.         Percy’s Bar (3, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 114 (2nd)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Percy's Bar

 

4.         Explora (4, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 95 (7th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 10-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

 

5.         Counting Stars (6, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (4th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 5-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Counting Stars

 

6.         Always a Runner (7, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (6th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 15-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Always a Runner

 

7.         Prom Queen (8, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (5th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 10-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Prom Queen

 

8.         She Be Smooth (9, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (9th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: She Be Smooth

 

9.         Bella Ballerina (10, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 110 (3rd)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

 

10.   Bottle of Rouge (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 57.5 (14th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 15-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

Returns to the Kentucky Oaks rankings after the withdrawals of Life of Joy and Luv Your Neighbor put her back in contention. She showed enough when winning the Sunland Park Oaks and Virginia Oaks to suggest she’s a better chance than the fillies she’s leapfrogged in her return to this list. A valid second-string for Bob Baffert.

 

11.   Pashmina (11, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 63 (12th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 30-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Pashmina

 

12.   My Miss Mo (12, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (10th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 30-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: My Miss Mo

 

13.   Search Party (13, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 67.5 (11th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Search Party

 

14.   Paradise (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 62.5 (13th)

TwinSpires Fair Odds: 40-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paradise

Paradise only needed one withdrawal to get back into the Oaks field, and she got it this week with Life of Joy and Luv Your Neighbor out. But after her distant third in the Gazelle (G3), it’s a lot more difficult to see her as a winning chance.

 

Largest gain: Counting Stars, Always a Runner, Prom Queen, She Be Smooth, Bella Ballerina (all up 1).

Largest fall: Life of Joy (removed from list).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: Bottle of Rouge (10th), Paradise (14th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Life of Joy (5th last week), Luv Your Neighbor (14th last week).