Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Several taking historically less likely path

Apr 22, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Renegade wins the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

There was a time when it was believed a horse couldn’t win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old.

But as a sign of how times have changed, it looks like 20 percent of the likely runners in the 2026 Derby will not have faced the starter as a juvenile.

Prior to 2018, no horse had won the Derby without a juvenile start since Apollo in 1882. However, Justify’s lack of two-year-old racing didn’t stop him from winning the Derby on the way to the 2018 Triple Crown, and seven years later, Mage did the same.

Four horses are aiming to join this trio in 2026, and all are rated serious chances: Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Potente, and The Puma.

Emerging Market is attempting to overturn another rule which history says is nearly impossible. Only one horse has done what he’s attempting and won the Kentucky Derby at its third start – Leonatus in 1883. It’s rare enough to win with only three previous starts, as Chief Wallabee, Potente, and Danon Bourbon would be attempting – besides the aforementioned Justify and Mage, only Regret (1915), and Big Brown (2008) have done so.

This week’s Power Rankings reflect the various happenings, withdrawals, works, and plain buzz about the Derby and Oaks contenders in the past week. The next set will be the final ones before the big race – taking into account the final field, barrier draws, and any other significant news.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment on the first two days of May, when the two big races finally arrive.

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Renegade (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 125 (3rd)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Renegade

The potential Derby favorite had his penultimate Derby workout at Palm Beach Downs on April 16, running four furlongs in 48.87 seconds. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he wasn’t normally a bullet worker, but he was happy with the effort, especially the gallop out. His pure speed numbers aren’t as strong as some, but that can be hard for a closer like him. His two most recent Brisnet Late pace ratings – perhaps more relevant for him – were outstanding numbers – 109 and 111.

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 150 (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Commandment

The Florida Derby (G1) winner breezed five furlongs in 59.6 seconds April 17 at Churchill Downs, a work his trainer Brad Cox said was a good effort for a horse he rated as an average worker. If one were to list all the attributes wanted in a Kentucky Derby contender – speed, proven class, pedigree, course history, connections – he has more going for him than any other runner.

Commandment wins the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

3.         Chief Wallabee (5, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (16th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Chief Wallabee

Put in the most talked-about work of any Derby contender April 20, working five furlongs in 1:00.01 before a strong gallop-out. He appears to have taken very well to the blinkers applied after he didn’t finish off his race as well as his team liked in the Florida Derby. It’s worth noting that although The Puma was ahead of him at his last start, he clearly outpointed that horse when both had their debut at Gulfstream Park Jan. 10 – a maiden that has come out as strong as any on the Derby trail.

Chief Wallabee wins at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

4.         Further Ado (3, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 135 (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Further Ado

Returned to the worktab April 17, recording 48.6 seconds for four furlongs at Churchill Downs in a manner that his trainer, Brad Cox, said showed great energy. Possibly the most talented Kentucky Derby contender, but there’s still the question about whether he can show his full talent away from Keeneland. May 2 would be the perfect time to show that he can.

Further Ado wins the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

5.         The Puma (4, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (6th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: The Puma

In his second breeze since the Florida Derby, he ran five furlongs in 1:00.77 on April 18 at Gulfstream Park. The parallels between The Puma and 2023 Derby winner Mage are striking, and like his fellow Delgado-trained predecessor, his late-running style will probably be well-suited to the Kentucky Derby.

Commandment (outside) nosed out The Puma to win the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

6.         Emerging Market (6, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (8th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Emerging Market

Derby historians have frequently referred to the Apollo curse (winning the Derby without a juvenile start) and the Leonatus curse (winning the Derby with only two previous starts). Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market is trying to break both of them. The Apollo curse is less of a factor following the successes of Justify and Mage; can Emerging Market burst the other one? He tuned up for the race with a bullet four furlongs in 48.4 seconds at Payson Park April 18.

Emerging Market wins the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

7.         Silent Tactic (7, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (7th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Silent Tactic

The Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up did his most recent recorded work at Oaklawn Park on April 12, breezing four furlongs in 49.4 seconds. Trainer Mark Casse has now shipped the colt to Churchill Downs as he seeks to win the one Triple Crown race he has yet to take out.

Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         So Happy (8, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 115 (4th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: So Happy

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner returned to the worktab April 17, running five furlongs in 59.6 seconds. Trainer Mark Glatt was pleased with the effort, and the Runhappy colt was due to ship to Churchill Downs on April 21. There have been questions over the Californian three-year-old males this term, but his speed rating in the Santa Anita Derby was solid, and he is clearly up with the best of them

So Happy wins the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

9.         Potente (11, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (10th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Potente

Potente has already worked twice since the Santa Anita Derby, most recently running six furlongs in 1:13.2. May well be shorter in the betting on the day due to his trainer’s history in the race, but also due to the likelihood he won’t be left to set the pace as he was at his last start, which may help this inexperienced colt.

Potente and jockey Juan Hernandez win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

10.   Incredibolt (9, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (13th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Incredibolt

The path to the Kentucky Derby has only gone through Colonial Downs since last year, when the Virginia Derby was switched from a summer turf contest to an early spring dirt event. Last year’s Virginia Derby winner, American Promise, didn’t fire at Churchill Downs, but Incredibolt arrives with a stronger background. And if the Virginia Derby isn’t a proven Kentucky Derby precursor, the same can’t be said of the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, won by Incredibolt last year, just 12 months after Sovereignty did so.

Incredibolt wins the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

11.   Golden Tempo (12, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (14th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Golden Tempo

Put in a strong four furlongs at Keeneland April 17 in 47.00 seconds. With Pavlovian, Six Speed, and possibly Chip Honcho all potentially seeking the pace in the big race, the scenario could well be set up for Golden Tempo to rush into contention for some of the money late.

Golden Tempo wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

12.   Pavlovian (10, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 70 (11th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Pavlovian

Pavlovian put in a reasonable work at Santa Anita on April 19, running six furlongs in 1:15.00 with stable companion Robusta. As has been mentioned, he has improved since being ridden more aggressively. But with Six Speed and Chip Honcho also in the race, he could end up in a speed contest, and that will make it harder to be there at the end of 1 1/4 miles.

Emerging Market (left) outdueled Pavlovian in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

13.   Wonder Dean (13, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (Euro-ME Series) (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Wonder Dean

One of the early arrivals to Churchill Downs among Derby contenders following his UAE Derby (G2) victory at the end of March. He’s been gradually acclimating to his new environment, but as of Monday, he hadn’t recorded an official timed workout. Has a terrible record of UAE Derby winners to overcome, but does have the services of the jockey – Ryusei Sakai – who got closer than any to overcoming it aboard Forever Young two years ago.

14.   Fulleffort (14, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 110 (5th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Fulleffort

The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor hasn’t raced on dirt but didn’t show any signs of difficulty with the surface when putting up a bullet five furlongs April 17 in 59.20 seconds at Churchill Downs. That work and his pedigree suggest he should handle dirt adequately, as several recent horses have done out of the Turfway Park circuit. What is less certain is how his form stacks up.

15.   Danon Bourbon (15, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 40 (Japan Series) (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Danon Bourbon

The top horse on the Japanese Derby Road series stayed at home after winning the Fukuryu S., not heading to Churchill Downs until this week. As noted, he’s in effect returning home, to a location a short drive away from his birthplace in Versailles, Ky. A lot of people have been impressed by his unbeaten career to date, all at trips of at least 1 1/8 miles. The form is hard to assess, so his progress in training leading to the Derby will be watched with interest.

Kentucky-bred Danon Bourbon was much the best in the Fukuryu at Nakayama (Photo by Tomoya Moriuchi/Horsephotos.com)

16.   Chip Honcho (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 49 (17th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Chip Honcho

Back on this list after defections got him a place in the Derby field, and pushed up to 16th due to his close second in the Risen Star (G2) to Paladin, who had been the favorite for this race prior to his injury-enforced withdrawal. Chip Honcho is not the easiest to assess, as he seems to need the race scenario to play out perfectly for him to be competitive with the best three-year-olds. That’s unlikely in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, but in the rough chance it does, he may have better prospects than you might expect. Breezed five furlongs in 59.80 seconds at Churchill Downs April 18.

Chip Honcho wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

17.   Albus (16, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (9th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Albus

Sent after his Wood Memorial (G2) victory to Churchill Downs, where he breezed four furlongs in 49.00 seconds on April 18. There are many doubts about how strong the Wood field was, and whether a son of the leading sprinter Yaupon will stay 1 1/4 miles. His jockey, Jaime Torres, has chosen to partner with stable companion Incredibolt rather than him. Looks like he has a lot to do to be a factor, but he’s still relatively unexposed.

Albus wins the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

18.   Intrepido (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 38 (21st)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Intrepido

All but set to have a Derby start with the likely withdrawal of Stark Contrast in favor of the American Turf (G1). Threw in a clunker in the Santa Anita Derby, but the start prior was just three-quarters of a length from winning the Robert B. Lewis S. If he can find that form, he could earn some prizemoney, though victory is a little hard to see at this point. Worked four furlongs April 19 at Santa Anita in 47.20 seconds, which trainer Jeff Mullins said was quicker than he expected.

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

19.   Right to Party (18, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 65 (12th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Right to Party

Right to Party is safely ensconced at Churchill Downs following his Wood Memorial second-place finish, and breezed five furlongs in 1:00.80 seconds on April 18. It would be a major surprise if he were a factor at the finish of the Derby, but if Rich Strike could do it in 2022, why not him?

Right to Party (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

20.   Six Speed (19, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 80 (Euro-ME Series) (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Six Speed

After he was all but uncontrollable when setting the speed in the UAE Derby, he ran his final sections in pedestrian times but still managed to hold on to second. That will be a much tougher task against a much stronger field in the Kentucky Derby. His earlier efforts showed he has a great deal of talent, but he might be best up to a mile. He also has the disadvantage of a very long trek from Dubai to Kentucky via a quarantine stint in a chilly Newmarket, but is now on his way to Louisville.

Six Speed, shown winning the UAE 2000 Guineas, is going for the double in the UAE Derby (Photo by Dubai Racing Club)

Largest gain: Chief Wallabee, Potente (both up 2).

Largest fall: Pavlovian (down 2).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Chip Honcho (16th), Intrepido (18th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Iron Honor (17th last week), Ottinho (20th last week).

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Percy’s Bar (3, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 114 (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Percy's Bar

You can read too much into the way a horse works in preparation for a big race; some horses don’t enjoy it and become different animals on raceday. But it’s worth noting that Percy’s Bar put in four consecutive bullet works at Keeneland prior to her three-year-old debut in the Ashland (G1), where she thrashed the Oaks Future Wager favorite Zany. In her first workout since, she put up yet another bullet, breezing four furlongs in 47.00 seconds. She may not get the saloon passage in the Oaks that she did in the Ashland, but everything is pointing to a strong showing on May 1.

Percy's Bar wins the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

2.         Meaning (1, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 126 (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Meaning

Unlike Percy’s Bar, Meaning is generally a more modest worker, though she ramped up to produce top-three efforts over five furlongs in her two works preceding her Santa Anita Oaks triumph. She was back to a less robust 48.6 seconds over four furlongs on April 17. It will be interesting to see what she does as the Oaks gets closer, particularly as she has a journey to make from California.

3.         Zany (2, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 80 (8th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Zany

Zany returned to Florida after her Ashland second-place finish rather than staying in Kentucky. In her only work since, she breezed four furlongs at Palm Beach Downs on April 16 in 49.07 seconds – which, though just seventh-best of 10 that day, was faster than any of her previous four-furlong works since late February. She didn’t have everything go her way in the Ashland and may well improve on Oaks day.

4.         Explora (4, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 95 (7th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Explora

After missing the Fantasy (G2) due to a minor setback, Explora has returned to the worktab, putting in three breezes this month at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert has been giving her extended works, with her two most recent efforts being six furlongs in 1:12.4 on April 11 and seven furlongs in 1:25.00 on April 17. She’s almost been forgotten by some in the Oaks picture, but she’s yet to run out of the first two, even though her last six starts have been graded or listed contests, so she’s still a serious chance.

5.         Counting Stars (5, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (4th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Counting Stars

Stayed at Oaklawn Park after her Fantasy victory, breezing four furlongs in 48.20 seconds on April 12. Has since made her way to Churchill Downs, where her chances should not be ignored.

6.         Always a Runner (6, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (6th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Always a Runner

Like her Derby-bound stable companion, Emerging Market, Always a Runner is trying to score a major three-year-old victory at Churchill Downs after just two previous starts. She wintered in Florida, where she won her debut at Tampa Bay Feb. 6, and then stepped up nicely to take the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct April 4. Had her first work since then when breezing four furlongs in 49.00 seconds at Belmont Park April 18.

7.         Bella Ballerina (9, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 110 (3rd)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Bella Ballerina

A little disappointing when second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) to Life of Joy, who won’t be at Churchill Downs on May 1. With that in mind, her training has focused on her racing more kindly while in behind horses, and by all reports she’s done very well. Her half-sister, Pretty Mischievous, won the Kentucky Oaks after running second in the Fair Grounds Oaks, so don’t rule out an improvement.

8.         Prom Queen (7, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (5th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Prom Queen

Made her way to Churchill Downs earlier this month and has breezed twice on the track, the latest a five-furlong work in 1:01.40. She has continued to improve each start of her three-race career to date – all of them as a three-year-old – and won’t be without followers for the Oaks.

9.         She Be Smooth (8, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (9th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: She Be Smooth

Made her debut in the same race Prom Queen did, coming out on top that day. She then dominated in the Davona Dale (G2) before disappointing when third in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). It’s possible she may have taken some improvement out of a race she didn’t need to win in order to qualify for this race. She’s remained in Florida for the meantime, breezing four furlongs in 49.07 seconds on April 16.

10.   Bottle of Rouge (10, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 57.5 (14th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Bottle of Rouge

The well-traveled Bottle of Rouge went back to Santa Anita following her Virginia Oaks victory on March 14 and has had four works since, most recently running four furlongs in 48.80 seconds on April 17. She showed in her Sunland Park and Colonial Downs victories this year that she’s tough and competitive, and should not be underestimated now that she’s got a start secured.

11.   Pashmina (11, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 63 (12th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Pashmina

A fighting second to Always a Runner in the Gazelle (G3), though she wasn’t as strong at the finish of the 1 1/8 mile contest as she had been a furlong beforehand. Honest, but victory would surprise. Back on the worktab at Belmont Park April 17, where she breezed four furlongs in 47.97 seconds.

12.   Search Party (13, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 67.5 (11th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Search Party

A distant second to Counting Stars in the Fantasy, and it’s hard to see her turning the tables on her stable companion in the Oaks. Her most recently recorded work was a 48.60-second breeze at Oaklawn Park on April 12.

13.   My Miss Mo (12, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (10th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: My Miss Mo

Listed on the official Churchill Downs leaderboard as an uncertain starter, hence her fall in the Power Rankings. She was still in Florida as of last week, putting in a bullet four furlongs in 48.25 seconds on April 15. Ran nicely in the Davona Dale and the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and a minor placing wouldn’t surprise me if she contests the Oaks.

14.   Paradise (14, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 62.5 (13th)

TwinSpires Horse Profiles: Paradise

Like My Miss Mo, Paradise is listed as an uncertain starter in the Kentucky Oaks. Her distant third in the Gazelle didn’t make her seem like a genuine contender, so she’s got some improving to do. Has made it to Churchill Downs, where she breezed four furlongs in 49.00 seconds on April 17.

Largest gain: Percy’s Bar, Bella Ballerina (both up 2).

Largest fall: Meaning, Zany, Prom Queen, She Be Smooth, My Miss Mo (all down 1).

No new horses or re-entries to Oaks Power Rankings.