Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Three 200-Point Races, Three New Winners

Mar 24, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Emerging Market wins the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

The first three 200-point prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) have now been run, and all went to horses without previous victories in the series. It’s a solid reminder of how quickly the picture can change as we get closer to the first weekend in May.

More change is in prospect this weekend. The Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park and the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park feature a number of horses with serious prospects for the big race, the Florida Derby in particular, while there are preps of equal significance on the Oaks road at both venues.

Meanwhile, we will see the conclusion to both foreign Derby road competitions with the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai and the Fukuryu S. in Japan. Whether all the potential runners from these roads make it to Churchill Downs, particularly given the war in the Middle East, remains unknown.

You can read more about the Derby picture in the Kentucky Derby Roundup on TwinSpires Edge.

Given that the past week’s races have provided more clarity on likely runners in the Derby and the Oaks, this week’s column also looks at where the ranked horses here stand on the respective qualifying leaderboards.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment when Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager arrives April 2-4.

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Nearly (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 20 (24th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Nearly

Though he’s been at the top of this list for a few weeks, Nearly isn’t guaranteed a start in the Kentucky Derby. To earn one, he’s going to have to race well against a hot Florida Derby field this weekend, which includes the horses ranked 2nd, 5th, and 8th on this list. A second-place finish would ensure a start, while a third placing might be enough; he’d most likely need to win to stay on top of the Power Rankings.

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (11th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

Gets another acid test Saturday in the Florida Derby, where he clashes with Chief Wallabee again and has Nearly and The Puma added for good measure. However, his Fountain of Youth (G2) victory means he’s all but assured of a Kentucky Derby start, so he’s got an out if he suffers bad luck. A win on Saturday would see him vying for favoritism for the big race and possibly put him atop the Power Rankings.

Commandment wins the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

3.         Paladin (3, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (4th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

Already qualified for the Derby thanks to victories in the Remsen (G2) and Risen Star (G2), but he’s set to have his final prep in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday, April 4.

Paladin wins the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

4.         Renegade (4, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 25 (19th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

Like his stablemate Nearly, he needs a strong effort on Saturday to confirm a Kentucky Derby start. He’s been given arguably an easier task, with the Arkansas Derby not looking as strong as the Florida Derby, but with Rankings spot-holders six and 12 in the field, along with former Rankings alumnus Blackout Time, it’s still a decent test. Third would probably be enough to earn a start, but like Nearly, a victory is probably needed to maintain his high spot here.

Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

5.         Chief Wallabee (5, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 25 (20th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chief Wallabee

Another horse that needs a strong performance on Saturday to ensure a Kentucky Derby slot – most likely third or better. His team hasn’t seemed too desperate to get to the first Saturday in May, so he’d likely need a similar effort to his narrow Fountain of Youth defeat for them to take the plunge and contest the Derby after three starts. After getting where he has following just two starts, he’s obviously talented, and we’ll learn more again in the Florida Derby.

Chief Wallabee wins at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

6.         Silent Tactic (6, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (8th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

With 50 points and a lot of prize money, Silent Tactic doesn’t appear to need to do anything in the Arkansas Derby to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He’ll need a good effort to show that he’s a winning chance, however, and with Renegade in the field, he should get a solid test of his Derby credentials.

Class President (inside) fights back to nip Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2) (Photo by Coady Media)  223

7.         Class President (7, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (9th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Class President

After winning the Rebel (G2), Class President probably has a Kentucky Derby spot secured. He could run again in the Blue Grass or the Wood Memorial (G2) next week, but he may also not race again until the first Saturday in May.

Class President (inside) fights back to nip Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2) (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         The Puma (8, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 56 (7th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: The Puma

With 56 points courtesy of his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) win and Sam F. Davis S. third, The Puma doesn’t need to add to his points tally in Saturday’s Florida Derby. However, he’ll want to run well to suggest he’s a winning chance in the Kentucky Derby.

The Puma wins the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photos)

9.         Emerging Market (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Emerging Market

Emerging Market’s high-rating maiden victory at Tampa Bay was made to look less good when the horse he narrowly beat, Powershift, failed in the Tampa Bay Derby. But the son of Candy Ride provided his own evidence of his quality by wearing down Pavlovian in the Louisiana Derby (G2), with Golden Tempo and Chip Honcho behind him. Being out of an Empire Maker mare, he has stamina on his side. Gives Chad Brown a great second string to Paladin in the Kentucky Derby.

Emerging Market wins the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

10.   Further Ado (10, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 35 (17th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

Will seek to improve on his Tampa Bay Derby second on his three-year-old debut and secure a Kentucky Derby start in the Blue Grass.

Further Ado wins the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

11.   Pavlovian (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 70 (3rd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Pavlovian

After eight races in which he didn’t look much like a Kentucky Derby hope, he improved to win the Sunland Derby narrowly over Remington Mile winner Express Kid, and then enhanced his standing in an even bigger way by pushing Emerging Market close in the Louisiana Derby. With 70 points, he’s now assured a Kentucky Derby start, and though he probably needs to improve further to be a winning chance, he’s clearly heading in the right direction.

Pavlovian (gray on the outside) and Express Kid match strides to the wire in the Sunland Park Derby (Photo by Coady Media)

12.   Litmus Test (11, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 34 (18th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

Saturday’s Arkansas Derby gives Litmus Test a chance to redeem himself after his third-place finish in the Rebel. Third, and maybe fourth, would be enough to secure a Kentucky Derby start, but he’ll want better than that to suggest he’s a Derby-winning hope.

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

13.   Iron Honor (12, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (12th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Iron Honor

Most likely has enough points for a Derby start, but he’s looking likely to contest the Wood Memorial on Saturday week as a final prep.

Iron Honor wins the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Joe Labozzetta)

14.   Talk to Me Jimmy (13, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 20 (25th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

Unlike Iron Honor, Talk to Me Jimmy will need to earn some points in the Wood Memorial to ensure he has a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

Talk to Me Jimmy wins the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

15.   Canaletto (14, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 15 (35th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Canaletto

Will he be targeted at the Kentucky Derby? He probably has the talent, but he will need more points. If he runs in any prep, it’s most likely to be the Blue Grass; he’ll probably be saved for the Preakness (G1).

Canaletto wins at Santa Anita. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Ryan Thompson)

16.   Incredibolt (15, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (5th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

The Virginia Derby was enough to secure Incredibolt a Kentucky Derby start. He’s not likely to race again until the big day.

Incredibolt wins the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

17.   Golden Tempo (18, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (6th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

Started better in the Louisiana Derby, but a bump saw him well back in running again, though not as far back as in the Risen Star. Put in a very good rally to get close to the first two, and though he didn’t catch them, he did enough to enhance his reputation and secure a Kentucky Derby spot. Still appears to need a Rich Strike-like pace to be a winning prospect in the Run for the Roses, but he at least looks highly likely to stay the 1 1/4 miles.

Golden Tempo wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

18.   Potente (16, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (13th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Potente

Probably has a Kentucky Derby spot secured, but will aim to enhance his burgeoning reputation in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Potente and jockey Juan Hernandez win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

19.   Fulleffort (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 110 (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Fulleffort

Nineteenth on the Power Rankings list may seem unkind to the horse that heads the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. But there must be doubts about Fulleffort, given he hasn’t raced on dirt in seven career starts. However, there have been horses out of this race that ran well at Churchill Downs in recent years. If the field Fulleffort beat in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) doesn’t have proven dirt ability, it did have class – especially the second horse home, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) runner-up Stark Contrast. Being by Liam’s Map out of an Awesome Again mare, he has a dirt pedigree.

Fulleffort wins the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

20.   Chip Honcho (9, -11)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 49 (14th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chip Honcho

Seriously disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, even though his 10-point haul for finishing fifth has probably secured a Churchill Downs start. It wasn’t just that he was 11-1/2 lengths behind the winner, Emerging Market, that was discouraging, but the fact that there was a 16-length turnaround between him and Golden Tempo in the latter’s favor from the Risen Star. It suggests he needs to have everything go his way to be competitive at this level – something that’s hard to expect in the Kentucky Derby.

Chip Honcho wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Largest gain: Golden Tempo (up 1).

Largest fall: Chip Honcho (down 11).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Emerging Market (9), Pavlovian (11), Fulleffort (19).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Intrepido (17th last week), Reagan’s Honor (19th last week), Cherokee Nation (20th last week).

Unranked horses likely to have enough points to contest Kentucky Derby: Stark Contrast (50 points, 10th; unlikely runner)

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Zany (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 30 (16th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

The Kentucky Oaks favorite sits outside the 14-horse limit for the race at present. She is set to have her final prep in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, where she will need a good performance to secure an Oaks place.

2.         Explora (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 95 (3rd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

Explora doesn’t need any points from Friday’s Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn Park to get an Oaks start. But a strong victory over some decent fillies would confirm she’s one of the top prospects to win the big race on the first Friday in May.

3.         Life of Joy (12, +9)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 122 (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

Put together her best effort yet to race away with the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Perhaps the most notable aspect was that she turned around the form of the Golden Rod (G2) in November with Bella Ballerina – after finishing three lengths behind that filly at Churchill Downs, she was 3-3/4 lengths ahead on Saturday. Her time was 0.26 seconds outside the track record, though the 1 1/8-mile record was broken by 0.55 seconds earlier in the day, so it was clearly a fast track.

4.         Meaning (3, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 26 (17th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

Will aim to secure her Kentucky Oaks spot in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on April 5.

5.         She Be Smooth (5, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 50 (8th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: She Be Smooth

Apart from Zany, no Oaks prep winner has been more impressive than She Be Smooth was in the Davona Dale (G2), albeit against a field of questionable quality. She most likely doesn’t need any points from Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) to earn a Kentucky Oaks start, but victory would improve belief in her credentials as a potential Kentucky Oaks winner.

6.         Bella Ballerina (4, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 110 (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

Was she at her best in the Fair Grounds Oaks? She lost her unbeaten record when outpointed by Life of Joy, a filly she beat in the Golden Rod in November. However, she did finish 4-3/4 lengths ahead of Luv Your Neighbor, a filly she only beat by half a length in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Her previous victories have been workmanlike rather than spectacular, and it’s possible she was found out on Saturday. But it’s worth noting her half-sister, Pretty Mischievous, from the same stable, was a well-beaten second in this race three years ago and still went on to win the Kentucky Oaks.

7.         Counting Stars (6, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 25 (18th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Counting Stars

Needs a good performance in the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park this weekend to ensure she gets a Kentucky Oaks spot – but if she replicates the form she showed when pushing Explora in the Honeybee (G3), she has a strong chance of doing so.

8.         Bottle of Rouge (7, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 57.5 (5th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

Her Virginia Oaks victory secured her spot in the Kentucky Oaks field. It remains to be seen whether she has another prep ahead of the big race.

9.         Forced Entry (8, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 50 (9th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Forced Entry

Probably, but not certainly, has enough points for a Kentucky Oaks start. If she needs another prep, it’s likely to be the Santa Anita Oaks.

10.   Dazzling Dame (9, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 40.75 (10th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile:

Possibly needs some more points to secure a Kentucky Oaks start, should her connections want to point her in that direction.

11.   Paradise (10, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 37.5 (11th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paradise

Another likely to need more points for an Oaks start. Her next start is most likely the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct on April 4.

12.   Lorelei Lee (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 50 (6th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Lorelei Lee

Led all the way to win the Bourbonette Oaks at 11-1 at Turfway Park. That was enough to secure 50 points and a likely spot in the Kentucky Oaks, for which her connections have indicated she’ll have a late entry made. She has yet to start on any surface but the Turfway Tapeta, but being by Nyquist out of a Tapit mare, there’s reason to believe she’ll handle dirt. Whether she has the class to win a Kentucky Oaks is more in doubt.

13.   Luv Your Neighbor (11, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 65 (4th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

Ended a run of close second-place finishes with a well-beaten third in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She has secured enough points for a Kentucky Oaks start, but it wasn’t an effort that suggested she was a winning hope. It remains to be seen whether she turns up on the first Friday in May.

14.   Sticker Shock (13, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 0

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Sticker Shock

Having yet to contest any points races, Sticker Shock’s Oaks prospects depend completely on Friday’s Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. Given that her opponents include leading contender Explora, her team will get a decent idea of whether her allowance form translates to this level. Her Oaks chances may depend on whether all six Fantasy entries start; if there’s one withdrawal, there will only be 75 points available for the winner and 37.5 for second, meaning a second-place finish may not earn an Oaks start.

Largest gain: Life of Joy (up 9).

Largest fall: Bella Ballerina, Luv Your Neighbor (both down 2).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Lorelei Lee (12).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Labwah (14th last week).

Unranked horses likely to have enough points to contest Kentucky Oaks: Labwah (50 points, 7th; uncertain runner)