Kentucky Derby Horse Profile: Strategic Risk

Jan 06, 2026 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Strategic Risk wins the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Kara West)

John Oxley’s homebred Strategic Risk swept to the front in early stretch and drove clear late en route to posting a convincing, 4 1/2-length tally in the $250,000 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 3. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Javier Castellano, the winner clocked 1 1/16 miles on the fast dirt surface in 1:45.06 while accumulating 10 points on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series leaderboard.

Silent Tactic, Baytown Dreamer, Sleepingonfreedom, and Rancho Santa Fe rounded out the top five and earned qualifying points on a 5-3-2-1 basis, respectively.

Castellano stated after the race, “He dictated the pace, and I just followed him every step. Felt comfortable and happy that he was where he wanted to be. It seemed to me the pace wasn’t too fast. I just enjoyed the ride. Turning for home, when I asked him, he just took off. I liked the way he finished. He galloped out beautifully. His stride was strong and steady. Enjoyed the ride. Very happy to be here.”

STRATEGIC RISK was in a stalking position throughout before pouncing to a dominant victory in the Smarty Jones S. for the hot @markecasse barn! 🔥@jjcjockey had the mount.

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/nTVPE0WXsT

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 3, 2026

Strategic Risk made his first appearance at Gulfstream Park on June 7 and led at every call in his dominant, 8 1/4-length tally over state-bred foes in the maiden special weight ranks. He was unplaced in a pair of graded stakes tries at Saratoga in his next two outings, prior to checking in third in the Florida Stallion Series Affirmed S. at Gulfstream on Oct. 18. The colt preceded his Smarty Jones win with a triumph in the In Reality S. on Nov. 29, and his lifetime line now reads 6-3-0-1, $392,300.

The son of Noble Bird is the third black-type runner produced from the unraced Afleet Alex mare Strategize, following in the footsteps of his stakes-winning full-sister Strategic Bird, as well as his stakes-placed full-brother Just Relax. His third dam is the multiple Grade-1 winning millionaire Educated Risk.

Strategic Risk has thrived since going two turns on the dirt as of late and has registered Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 105 and 106 in his last pair. The Florida-bred has substantial stamina influences on both sides of his pedigree, and his catalog page suggests that he will be capable of handling classic distances in the spring. The $1 million Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn on Jan. 31 is the next potential target for Strategic Risk.

"He's got a lot of potential." @nancyuryholthus talks to winning jockey @jjcjockey after STRATEGIC RISK'S big win in the Smarty Jones, putting himself on the Derby trail! pic.twitter.com/G8uQguUtFK

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 3, 2026