Kentucky Derby Power Rankings: Thanksgiving weekend brings major changes [Dec. 2]

Dec 02, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Hopeful (G1) hero Ted Noffey is another budding star for leading sire Into Mischief (Photo by Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photos)

As expected, the last weekend in November has seen a decent shake-up in Power Rankings for the first Friday and Saturday in May.

The Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) proved the talent we thought we saw with Further Ado in his maiden win was real, though it arguably enhanced a couple of other reputations through the form lines as much as it did for Further Ado himself.

Boyd and Bella Ballerina also enhanced their reputations in the Ed Brown S. and the Golden Rod (G2), respectively, while the undercard saw impressive efforts from Stop the Car in an allowance and from Cannoneer and Liberty National in maidens.

Further Ado picks up 10 Kentucky Derby points in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at @ChurchillDowns! 🌟🏆@iradortiz was aboard for trainer @bradcoxracing and @spendthriftfarm!

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/SDJKbZ5jiJ

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 29, 2025

Away from Churchill Downs, Satono Voyage looked a classy colt when winning the opening Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby contest, while it would pay not to overlook the two Florida-bred winners at Gulfstream Park, Mythical and Strategic Risk.

The events of the weekend weren’t enough to displace Ted Noffey (7-1) at the top of the market in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, though Further Ado did end up the 13-1 second-favorite, and Boyd was 22-1 equal-fourth favorite.

The prep races don’t let up this week. Entries are already out for the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, with Power Rankings number 11 Talkin set to face some exciting prospects, including Nashua Stakes second and third Probably Dreaming and Day One Starter, and three juveniles that were offered as Pool 2 Kentucky Derby Future Wager options: Paladin and Renegade, the two combatants in a notable Aqueduct maiden, and the $5 million yearling purchase Courting. You can read more about the trail to the big race in the Kentucky Derby Roundup.

Meanwhile, there are two points races on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks: the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct, featuring a rematch of Tempted S. 1-2 Shilling and Believable, and the Starlet (G2) at Los Alamitos, for which entries had not closed when this piece was prepared.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings: your next chance to bet on the Derby will be in the Pool 3 Future Wager Jan. 16-18.

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey (1, no change)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 7-1

The form of the champion two-year-old male-elect is looking as good as it’s ever been. His latest boost came via Soldier N Diplomat, a distant fourth to him in the Hopeful (G1) prior to an allowance victory and a game third in this weekend’s Kentucky Jockey Club, and Big Dom, well beaten by Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) prior to his second to Boyd on Saturday.

2.         Mr. A. P. (2, no change)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 29-1

His form was let down slightly when Cherokee Nation, who he beat a nose in his maiden victory, was only fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. However, Mr. A. P.’s subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) second is still as good an effort behind Ted Noffey among Derby contenders as any.

Mr. A. P. wins at Santa Anita 2025
(Photo by Benoit Photography)

3.         Brant (3, no change)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 25-1

Hasn’t appeared on the worktab since his honorable third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Has some question marks over his ability to stay 1 1/4 miles, but he is one of the leading talents of his generation.

Brant training at Santa Anita,

4.         Napoleon Solo (5, +1)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 21-1

The strong showings of Universe in the Street Sense and the Kentucky Jockey Club – 1-3/4 length second in both of those – is a good reminder of how dominant Napoleon Solo was in the Champagne, where he was 7-1/4 lengths in front of third-placed Universe. He hasn’t featured on the worktab since, and there will be stamina questions for the Derby, but his talent looks as strong as most horses on this list.

Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

5.         Blackout Time (4, -1)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 34-1

Didn’t get his chance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after failing a vet inspection, but his second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity keeps him high on this list for now.

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

6.         Litmus Test (6, no change)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 69-1

Fought well for minor prizemoney behind Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Still on the worktab and is nominated for the Remsen and the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

Litmus Test breaks maiden at Del Mar. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

7.         Further Ado (10, +3)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 13-1.

His numbers weren’t as stunning in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club as they were in his maiden victory, but he fought off two good ones in the stretch, and the experience will do him good. Deserves a lift in the rankings, but taking a line through Universe and Soldier N Diplomat, he has a bit to find yet on Ted Noffey and Napoleon Solo.

Further Ado wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         Incredibolt (12, +4)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 28-1.

If anything, the Kentucky Jockey Club result did as much to enhance Incredibolt’s reputation as any of the horses that ran in the race. Further Ado had a big reputation going into the race, but his margin over Universe was the same as Incredibolt’s in the Street Sense (G3).

Incredibolot wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

9.         Boyd (19, +10)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 22-1.

Only had three opponents in the Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs, but he made them look second-rate and won with plenty in hand. The big doubt about him continues to be stamina, given he hasn’t been asked to go past 6 1/2 furlongs. But his talent is clear, and he remains on the Derby radar.

Boyd works in preparation for the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

10.   Desert Gate (7, -3)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 68-1.

Hasn’t been sighted on the worktab since receiving a minor injury that took him out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His form from the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah (G1) is solid enough for him to remain on the rankings, especially with a pedigree that suggests he could have Derby stamina.

Desert Gate winning the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)

11.   Talkin (13, +2)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 63-1.

Boosted up the rankings this week through the subsequent efforts of Universe, whom he beat when finishing second in the Champagne (G1). He may get to do some talkin' of his own this weekend as he’s among the entries for the Remsen.

Talkin wins on debut at Saratoga (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

12.   Englishman (8, -4)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 30-1.

Along with Further Ado, the most impressive maiden winner in Kentucky this fall. Hasn’t been on the worktab since mid-October, but his reputation is such that he was still well-backed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Englishman wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

13.   Universe (15, +2)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 32-1.

Universe has become a useful measuring stick when lining up Derby contenders. His latest run – a 1-3/4 length second to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club – followed a 1-3/4 length second to Incredibolt in the Street Sense and a 7-1/4 length third to Napoleon Solo in the Champagne. He was ridden off the pace for the first time in the Kentucky Jockey Club and should be followed during the Derby preps.

Universe wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

14.   Intrepido (9, -5)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 74-1.

Returned to the worktab Nov. 24 for the first time since his disappointing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race with a handy four-furlong effort in 51.80. Likely to return to racing at the Santa Anita winter-spring meeting.

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

15.   Satono Voyage (new entry)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 2-1 (all other horses option).

Very impressive when winning the Cattleya Sho, the opening Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby race over the weekend. It was the third dirt race victory from as many starts, and he wasn’t overly extended in doing so. Could be headed for the Saudi Derby in February, a race won by Forever Young two years ago. That horse’s efforts are a solid reminder not to underestimate Japanese dirt horses.

16.   Soldier N Diplomat (18, +2)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 84-1.

Battled well for third after contesting a hot pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His only below-average run in four starts was when weakening to fourth after setting the pace in the Hopeful behind Ted Noffey. His pedigree doesn’t scream stamina, but he has adjusted well to route racing so far.

Soldier N Diplomat wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

17.   Buetane (14, -3)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 101-1

Has been working solidly at Santa Anita, most recently posting 59.8 seconds for five furlongs Nov. 27. His second-place finish in the Hopeful, with Soldier N Diplomat behind him, holds up well as a form guide. Has an entry for the Los Alamitos Futurity and would be a very interesting runner if he contests that.

Buetane wins maiden race at Del Mar. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

18.   Cannoneer (new entry)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 2-1 (all other horses option)

The most impressive maiden winner on Stars of Tomorrow II day at Churchill Downs, Nov. 29. Third on debut to subsequent stakes winner Comport in early June, he dominated from the front to win by 7 1/4 lengths in a time nearly three seconds quicker than the other seven-furlong race on the card. By Into Mischief out of a Malibu Moon mare, so he has every chance of staying further.

Cannoneer wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

19.   Strategic Risk (new entry)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 2-1 (all other horses option)

A maiden winner in June who subsequently put in three fairly disappointing starts, he got his mojo back with a move to route racing in the 1 1/16-mile In Reality S. His opponents were Florida-sired only, but the way he put the field away from just off the speed was stunning and unexpected. Well-regarded by trainer Mark Casse and worth keeping an eye on.

Strategic Risk wins the Florida Sire S. in Reality Division. (Photo by Coady Media)

20.  Liberty National (new entry)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 2-1 (all other horses option).

Another from the Kenny McPeek stable, who looks to have some promise. He couldn’t keep up in the maiden won by Dr. Kapur from Chip Honcho at Keeneland Oct. 16, but that experience and a step up in trip paid dividends at Churchill Downs Saturday as he sprinted home off a modest early pace to score by 4 1/4 lengths in a time just 0.08 seconds slower than Further Ado ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Liberty National wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

= Stop the Car (new entry)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Closing Odds: 2-1 (all other horses option).

I’m copping out and adding a tie for 20th this week because I couldn’t separate Liberty National and Stop the Car. The latter was a fast-finishing winner over six furlongs on debut at Keeneland over subsequent In Reality runner-up The Town. He enjoyed the step up to a mile in allowance company at Churchill Downs on Saturday, settling closer to the speed before racing away in the stretch. Should enjoy going further.

Stop the Car wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Largest Gains: Boyd (up 10), Satono Voyage (new entry at 15)

Largest Fall: Intrepido (down 5), It’s Our Time (removed from rankings)

New to Derby Power Rankings this week: Satono Voyage, Cannoneer, Strategic Risk, Liberty National, Stop the Car.

Removed from Derby Power Rankings this week: It’s Our Time (11th last week), Gallivant (16th last week), Confessional (17th last week), Nearly (20th last week).

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Super Corredora (1 last week, no change)

Hasn’t worked since her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) success. Still sets the standard for potential Oaks fillies courtesy of that victory.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

2.         Explora (2, no change)

Entered for the Golden Rod but didn’t make the trip east. She is nominated for the Starlet, but it remains to be seen if she will take her place there.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

3.         Bella Ballerina (6, +3)

Like Further Ado, she confirmed the promise of her maiden Keeneland victory with a solid effort to win the Golden Rod. She was fading at the finish but was entitled to do so after chasing the very quick speed set by Letmecounttheways, and she was the only horse on the pace that was in the firing line at the finish. She is on the right track to emulate her half-sister, Pretty Mischievous, and win the Kentucky Oaks.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

4.         Percy’s Bar (3, -1)

Given some time away from the worktab since being shipped to the West Coast for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was a respectable fourth. Could well continue improving.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Percy's Bar

5.         Tommy Jo (4, -1)

A fraction disappointing in her last two juvenile starts following her Spinaway (G1) success. Classy, but her stamina remains questionable.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Tommy Jo

6.         Meaning (5, -1)

Hasn’t been on the worktab since finishing a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

7.         Atropa (new entry)

A 10-length maiden winner at Keeneland in October over subsequent Churchill Downs winner Measure, Atropa showed she belonged in the top tier with a fast-finishing second to Bella Ballerina in the Golden Rod. She lost some ground mid-race, which may have cost her at the finish, something which more experience might help prevent. Yet another leading juvenile by Into Mischief.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Atropa

8.         Bottle of Rouge (7, -1)

The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner returned to the worktab at Santa Anita last week for the first time since her sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Oct. 31. Nominated for the Starlet, but unclear if she will run.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

9.         Just Singing (re-entry)

On the rankings list, briefly after her maiden victory on the Stars of Tomorrow I card Oct. 26, Just Singing returns following Stars of Tomorrow II after her third-place finish in the Golden Rod. As in her maiden, she got well back, and though it was harder to round up the opposition here than in her maiden, there was a lot to like about how she hit the line. One to follow in the Oaks preps.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Just Singing

10.   Mythical (10, no change)

While many leading fillies were doing their thing at Churchill Downs, Mythical tackled 1 1/16 miles against her fellow Florida-breds in the My Dear Girl S. She again showed blazing speed early on, and although she slowed down substantially towards the end, her talent was enough to get her home comfortably. Her only failure remains the Spinaway; it remains to be seen if she has the stamina to take on all comers in the Oaks.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Mythical

11.   La Wally (8, -3)

Didn’t produce her best in the Juvenile Fillies. Returned to the worktab Nov. 29. Has plenty of stamina in her pedigree.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: La Wally

12.   On Time Girl (re-entry)

Returns to the rankings for the first time since Week 2 courtesy of her comfortable Fern Creek S. victory at Churchill Downs. She’s yet to race past six furlongs, so her potential Oaks stamina is a considerable doubt, but if she can carry her speed past that distance, she has the talent to compete with the leading fillies.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: On Time Girl

13.   Life of Joy (13, no change)

Got too far back in the Golden Rod, and though she made some ground, she didn’t pick up as well as Atropa and Just Singing. She has shown enough in her other races to maintain a spot on this list.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

14.   Dottie Hinson (new entry)

Was at long odds on debut in a California-bred juvenile fillies six-furlong contest Nov. 29, odds that looked fair as she couldn’t keep up early. But she rounded her opponents up with some style and won as she liked. Clearly needs to improve further to be a genuine Oaks contender, but has started off the right way.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Dottie Hinson

Largest Gains: Bella Ballerina (up 3), Atropa (new entry at number 7)

Largest Fall: La Wally (down 3), Paige Turner (removed from rankings)

New to Oaks Power Rankings this week: Atropa (7), Just Singing (9), On Time Girl (12), Dottie Hinson (14).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings this week: Paige Turner (9th last week), La Ville Lumiere (11th last week), Letmecounttheways (12th last week), Lyudmila (14th last week).

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

• Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
• Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
• Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
• Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
• Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
• Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
• Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
• Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025