Kentucky Derby Prep Review March 17, 2026

Mar 17, 2026 James Scully

Incredibolt wins the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Repositioned as a Kentucky Derby prep last year, the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs awarded qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers.

Point values will increase over next three weekends, with the final round of major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series each worth a combined 200 points (100-50-25-15-10 scale).

What Happened

After advancing into a threatening position on the far turn, Incredibolt found himself blocked behind horses at the top of the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby. Jockey Jamie Torres found a seam along the rail and Incredibolt quickly powered away from the field, drawing off to a four-length decision.

Riley Mott trains the dark bay colt for Pin Oak Stud, and Incredibolt rebounded stylishly from a disappointing performance in his 2026 opener, finishing last of six runners in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park in late January. He virtually guaranteed himself a spot in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, increasing his point total to 60 in the final prep race.

Analysis

Incredibolt showed an affinity for Churchill Downs last fall, breaking his maiden and winning the Street Sense (G3) by nearly two lengths, and it was easy to come impressed by his turn of foot in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby. In seemingly the blink of the eye, Incredibolt left the rest of the field in his wake, finishing full of run in a race that came back fast.

Incredibolt netted 100 Brisnet Speed Rating, the second-fastest Kentucky Derby prep so far this year behind the Fountain of Youth (G2). The competition will be much deeper at Churchill Downs, but Incredibolt established himself as a late runner to consider, earning a 115 Brisnet Late Pace figure in the Virginia Derby.

By Bolt d’Oro, the leading first-year crop North American sire by progeny earnings in 2022, Incredibolt closed last-to-first in a seven-horse Street Sense field last year. That’s the same race 2025 Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty captured in his final juvenile start, but any similarities ended when Incredibolt returned from a three-month layoff with a clunker in the Holy Bull, never firing from far off the pace.

He proved more effective utilizing stalking tactics in the Virginia Derby, racing more prominently during the opening stages. And while Incredibolt lacks the speed to race within striking range of a projected fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby, the Churchill Downs specialist may look to settle more towards midpack than the tail end of the field.