Kentucky Derby Prep Review March 24, 2026

Mar 24, 2026 James Scully

Emerging Market wins the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

The first weekend of major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series featured the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds and $777,777 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, each race offering points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to the top five finishers.

Five more major qualifiers will be offered over the next two weekends.

What Happened

A well-regarded maiden winner on Feb. 7, Emerging Market jumped straight to the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby for his second career start and prevailed by a head after an exciting stretch duel with pacesetter Pavlovian. Chad Brown trains the chestnut son of Candy Ride for Klaravich Stables (Seth Klarman), and Flavien Prat was up on the stalker.

After a pair of fast-closing seconds in Turfway stakes this winter, Fulleffort punched his Kentucky Derby ticket with a convincing 2 1/2-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks. Irad Ortiz Jr. came in to ride the gray late-running son of Liam’s Map, and Brad Cox conditions for St. Elias Stable (Vinnie Viola) and Starlight Racing.

Analysis

Emerging Market displayed courage while receiving stiff tests in both starts, and his Brisnet numbers came back commendable. In his first outing, a mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs, the up-and-coming colt rallied to narrowly defeat a heavily favored rival and netted a 99 Brisnet Speed and 106 Late Pace rating.

In the Louisiana Derby, Emerging Market was bet down to 2-1 favoritism and launched his move midway on the far turn, advancing forcefully into the frame to take a head advantage by upper stretch. But he wasn’t home-free yet. Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian, a seasoned opponent with six stakes appearances to his credit, had more in reserve and gamely battled back. Emerging Market surged late to get the upper hand and received a 102 Speed and 99 Late Pace figure.

Emerging Market has a lot going for him but rates as a difficult read for the Kentucky Derby due to his inexperience. With only two career starts, he’s still developing and seemingly owns enormous potential: he projects to keep getting faster and is bred for added distance. In most races, talent/ability trumps experience when it comes to handicapping, but the Kentucky Derby is different. The 1 1/4-mile distance, 20-horse field size, and loud environment make it an extreme challenge for horses early in their three-year-old season.

According to research, Leonatus in 1883 is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby in the third career start. Six horses have tried since 1937, the best result being a fifth by T O Password in 2024.

Pavlovian wasn’t fast enough to win a California-bred stakes earlier this year, finishing third at 11-1 odds in the California Cup Derby in mid-January, but he’s turned things around significantly for two-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill. After earning a career-best 95 Speed rating for a nose win in the Sunland Derby, the gray colt continued to show more in the Louisiana Derby. He’s eligible to add speed to the Kentucky Derby and while some may be quick to dismiss Pavlovian based upon earlier exploits, Charismatic (31-1 in 1999) and War Emblem (20-1 in 2002) are examples of Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t come to hand until right before the main event after displaying bad form during winter months.

Fulleffort promises to bring a late kick to the Kentucky Derby if he handles the transition to dirt. And that’s the rub when it comes to analyzing his chances. After making his career debut on Ellis Park’s turf last July, Fulleffort raced exclusively over turf in the next three starts, breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs in mid-September and winning an entry-level allowance at Keeneland six weeks later.

He moved to Turfway’s synthetic Tapeta track for the Leonatus S. in mid-January and experienced a troubled trip closing fast for second in the mile race. Fulleffort got going too late in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial five weeks later, commencing his bid from the back of the 11-horse field midway on the far turn, and came flying late to miss by a neck to Great White, who is headed to the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.

Fulleffort appreciated the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles and produced a better-timed move in the Jeff Ruby. After settling well off the pace during the opening stages, the 9-5 favorite began picking off rivals before the start of the far turn and kicked it into high gear nearing the end of the bend, swinging four-wide and powering his way to a short advantage with an eighth of a mile remaining. Fulleffort received a career-best 99 Speed rating, earning 102-99 Late Pace numbers in the last two starts.

A seamless transition to dirt is far from guaranteed, but Fulleffort’s pedigree is built for the Kentucky Derby, with half-sister Power Squeeze winning the 2024 Alabama (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on dirt. And we’ve witnessed synthetic/turf horses transfer their form to the main track at Churchill Downs. Animal Kingdom upset the 2011 Kentucky Derby in his first dirt start after winning the Spiral (now Jeff Ruby). In the last five years, the Jeff Ruby has produced Kentucky Derby upsetter Rich Strike (third in 2022 Jeff Ruby), runner-up Two Phil’s (winner 2023 Ruby), and fourth-placer Final Gambit (winner 2025 Jeff Ruby). Two Phil’s and Rich Strike had won previously over Churchill’s main track, but Final Gambit made his first dirt appearance on Derby Day.