Strategic Risk, Birdstone’s grandson, draws off in Smarty Jones

Jan 03, 2026 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Strategic Risk wins the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Hunter Fridley)

John C. Oxley’s homebred Strategic Risk aced his first test on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail in Saturday’s $250,000 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park. The Mark Casse trainee drew off by 4 1/2 lengths from stablemate Silent Tactic, who got up for second to give their connections a one-two finish.

Ironically, Strategic Risk is a grandson of Birdstone, the nemesis of race honoree Smarty Jones. In 2004, Smarty Jones almost had the Triple Crown in his grasp, only to have Birdstone deny him late in the Belmont (G1).

Strategic Risk was dominating his second straight stakes going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Last time out in the In Reality division of the Florida Sire S. at Gulfstream Park, he romped by nine lengths. But that came in restricted company, and Strategic Risk was facing stiffer competition in the Smarty Jones, the first in the series of Oaklawn’s Derby preps.

Universe, the 2.30-1 favorite, brought the key form as a veteran of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Most recently runner-up to highly-regarded Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, Universe had previously placed in the Street Sense (G3) and Champagne (G1).

Backers of Universe knew early on, though, that the Smarty Jones was not setting up for him. Breaking a bit tardily on the rail, he never got involved from off a slow pace and wound up seventh.

In contrast, Strategic Risk enjoyed the best passage through the race. The 5-2 second choice tracked 51-1 longshot Scar Ship, who strolled through fractions of :24.48, :49.72, and 1:14.99.

By that point, rounding the far turn, Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano gave Strategic Risk the cue, and he put the pacesetter away at the top of the stretch. The Florida-bred quickened his final sixteenth in a sharp 6.02 seconds to finish in 1:45.06.

“I communicated this morning back and forth with Javier (Castellano),” Casse said in a phone interview with track publicity. “I told him, looking at everything, I said: ‘I don’t think they can beat him.’ We felt pretty confident going in….

“Now, midway through the card, I communicated with Javier again and said: ‘Boy oh boy, speed is very tough.’ He said: ‘Yeah, I know, I’m worried about that.’ But once they broke and he was where he was, I always thought he was a winner.”

Silent Tactic was the lesser-fancied of the Oxley/Casse pair at 14-1, but he outperformed his odds by rallying from last for second. The only deep closer to factor, Silent Tactic was also making his dirt debut after racing on the Tapeta surface at Woodbine.

“I just watched the replay,” Casse added, “and the horse that ran a heck of a race was Silent Tactic because he got bothered two or three times down the backside. They just made it tight on him. He came running. That was his first dirt race, so I think he’ll move forward as well.”

Oxley, who campaigned 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, is therefore back on the trail with two intriguing prospects. Strategic Risk opened his account with 10 points, and Silent Tactic took home five.

STRATEGIC RISK was in a stalking position throughout before pouncing to a dominant victory in the Smarty Jones S. for the hot @markecasse barn! 🔥@jjcjockey had the mount.

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/nTVPE0WXsT

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 3, 2026

Baytown Dreamer, the longest shot on the board at 84-1, held third (three points). Next came Sleepingonfreedom in fourth (two points); hitherto unbeaten Rancho Santa Fe, who lagged farther back than expected and closed mildly for fifth (one point); Scar Ship; Universe; and Oscar’s Hope. Boca Beach Club was scratched.

Strategic Risk’s scorecard now stands at 6-3-0-1, $392,300. Romping in his June 7 debut versus Florida-breds at Gulfstream, he ventured to Saratoga for his first stakes attempts. After a distant fourth in the Sanford (G3), he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles on turf in the With Anticipation (G3) and ended up trailing the field.

Strategic Risk resurfaced on the Gulfstream dirt in the seven-furlong Affirmed division of the Florida Sire S., where he placed third. He finally achieved a stakes breakthrough in the In Reality division, his first opportunity to go two turns on dirt, and he’s now 2-for-2 in these conditions.

By taking the Smarty Jones, Strategic Risk became the most important stakes winner sired by Noble Bird, who was himself a Grade 1-winning millionaire by Birdstone. Strategic Risk is classically bred on his mother’s side as well. He is out of the Afleet Alex mare Strategize, a descendant of multiple Grade 1-winning millionaire Educated Risk.

Strategic Risk is a full brother to two stakes performers, multiple stakes scorer Strategic Bird and stakes-placed Just Relax.

Casse revealed that Strategic Risk would advance to next scoring race at Oaklawn, the Jan. 31 Southwest (G3).