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Study Guide: 2022 Gun Runner Stakes

Dec 19, 2022 J. Keeler Johnson

Andthewinneris winning the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Photography)

The $100,000 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds isn't exactly steeped in history; the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier was contested for the first time in 2021. But the inaugural edition produced 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1) 1-2 finishers Rich Strike and Epicenter, so it's safe to say the Gun Runner is capable of churning out top-class horses.

The 2022 Gun Runner will take place on Monday, Dec. 26 with seven horses vying for Derby qualification points on a 10-4-3-2-1 basis. Let's examine the field:

Hayes Strike
Total 6 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (87) when finishing second in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $129,482
Place: 1
Show: 1
Owner: Dixiana Farms Sire: Connect
Breeder: Dixiana Farms Dam: Plaid
Trainer: Kenny McPeek Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: Brian Hernandez

Hayes Strike has already competed twice on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, running fourth in the Iroquois (G3) before improving to third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). For good measure, he boasts a runner-up effort in the Street Sense (G3). Hayes Strike closed ground boldly from behind a slow pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is eligible to move forward at Fair Grounds, though the lack of speed entered in the Gun Runner field could once again compromise his chances.

Jace's Road
Total 3 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning his debut at Ellis Park.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $66,800
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables Sire: Quality Road
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables Dam: Out Post
Trainer: Brad Cox Color: Bay
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Jace's Road started his career with promise, dominating his debut at Ellis Park by 6 1/4 lengths before finishing third (beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) in the Iroquois (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But Jace's Road subsequently misfired over a sloppy track in the Street Sense (G3), fading to finish eighth by a wide margin. The good news is, a rebound to the form of his first two starts would place Jace's Road in the hunt for a top-four finish at Fair Grounds. Having hot jockey Florent Geroux in his corner is a positive.

Determinedly
Total 6 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (94) when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $139,950
Place: 2
Show: 0
Owner: John C. Oxley Sire: Cairo Prince
Breeder: Bedouin Bloodstock Dam: Bailzee
Trainer: Mark Casse Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Luis Saez

Determinedly spent three of his first four starts competing on turf without much success, but the Mark Casse trainee has improved sharply since switching to dirt. After finishing second in a fast maiden special weight sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland, Determinedly tackled the same distance and class level at Churchill Downs, where he pressed the early pace and drew off to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths. Those efforts produced back-to-back 94 Brisnet Speed ratings, the two highest numbers in the Gun Runner field. Determinedly has enough tactical speed to ensure a favorable trip in this largely paceless field, stamping the gray colt as the horse to beat.

Old Alliance
Total 2 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (77) when winning his debut at Laurel Park. 
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $46,200
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Riversedge Racing and Alifyfe Racing Sire: Hard Spun
Breeder: Stone Farm Dam: Pinkie Pact
Trainer: Michael Stidham Color: Bay
Jockey: Colby Hernandez

Old Alliance was much the best in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Laurel Park, leading all the way to win by 4 3/4 lengths. But he was subsequently beaten 18 1/4 lengths when third in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer over the same distance at Keeneland, and Old Alliance's career-best 77 Brisnet Speed rating suggests he'll need a step forward to challenge for victory in the Gun Runner.

Mazing Mark
Total 3 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (82) when winning the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $69,550
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Norman Stables Sire: Mo Town
Breeder: Jory Sherman and Don Blowe Dam: Moon Meeting Too
Trainer: Lonnie Briley Color: Bay
Jockey: Juan Vargas

Mazing Mark failed to factor in his first two starts against maiden special weight company on the Kentucky circuit, but shipping to Delta Downs in Louisiana proved more productive as Mazing Mark rallied to win by 1 1/2 lengths. The question is, can he repeat the feat against tougher competition at Fair Grounds? His career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating is a little on the light side.

Raise Cain
Total 3 start(s)
Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $79,924
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Andrew N. Warren and Rania Warren Sire: Violence
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds Dam: Lemon Belle
Trainer: Ben Colebrook Color: Bay
Jockey: Luan Machado

Raise Cain never fired in his debut at Churchill Downs, but he clearly benefited from the experience. His second start produced a pace-pressing 5 1/4-length romp in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, after which Raise Cain ran third in the six-furlong Bowman Mill S. over the same track. Stretching out over one mile is unexplored territory for Raise Cain, but his pedigree suggests he'll handle 1 1/16 miles, and the 91 Brisnet Speed rating he posted in his maiden score is fast enough to factor for a top-four finish at Fair Grounds.

Andthewinneris
Total 5 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (89) when winning the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $292,243
Place: 0
Show: 2
Owner: Susan Moulton Sire: Oscar Performance
Breeder: Susan Moulton Dam: Run Like the Boss
Trainer: Wayne Catalano Color: Bay
Jockey: Corey Lanerie

The most accomplished horse in the Gun Runner field is Andthewinneris, winner of the Bourbon (G2) racing 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland turf course. Andthewinneris is dropping in class after finishing seventh by 3 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and can't be dismissed from consideration, though it's worth noting Andthewinneris was beaten 12 1/4 lengths when third in the Bashford Manor S., his lone dirt try to date. From a pedigree perspective, Andthewinneris is bred to thrive on turf, so switching back to dirt for the Gun Runner may prove challenging.

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