Study Guide: 2023 Kentucky Derby

May 03, 2023 J. Keeler Johnson

Saturday's 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs has attracted a deep and competitive field. There are 13 graded stakes winners and four Grade 1 winners among the 23 entries, from which a maximum of 20 horses will be allowed to start.

Let's take a race-by-race look at the field:

Withers (G3) winner Hit Show missed by just a nose when second in the Wood Memorial (G2) last time out, but has finished behind Kentucky Derby rivals Lord Miles, Confidence Game, and Rocket Can at various points in his career. He’ll need improvement to turn the tables.

Verifying has struggled with consistency, but exits a game runner-up finish in a fast renewal of the Blue Grass (G1). Breaking sharply and avoiding trouble from post 2 will be the key for this speedy colt.

Two Phil’s earned a powerful 107 Brisnet Speed rating when dominating the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park, but must prove he can replicate that flashy form on dirt. Drawing post 3 may lead to a tricky trip.

Two-time Churchill Downs winner Confidence Game won the $1 million Rebel (G2) back in February, but hasn’t raced since. The layoff is a question mark; it’s been decades since a horse won the Derby off such a lengthy break.

Stretch-running Tapit Trice has rallied to impressive victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass (G1), but he takes time finding his best stride and must avoid falling too far behind while breaking from an inside post at Churchill Downs. A clear, unencumbered run would help Tapit Trice, but that’s not guaranteed for a stretch runner in the Derby.

The undefeated Kingsbarns was an eye-catching winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his third career start, but he benefited from setting a very slow pace and may have to adapt to rallying tactics in the Kentucky Derby. That could be tricky while breaking from the inside half of a giant field.

Reincarnate has early speed and figures to be a pace player, but a weakening third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) suggests he’ll need improvement to challenge for a top-five finish against tougher competition on Derby Day.

Mage ran well against Kentucky Derby favorite Forte in the Florida Derby (G1), finishing second after launching a powerful rally around the far turn. But Mage has only run three times and didn’t race at age two, so inexperience is a question mark for this talented but lightly raced colt.

A wide trip compromised Skinner when he rallied to finish third by half a length in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If a hot pace unfolds at Churchill Downs, this beautifully bred son of Curlin is eligible to outrun his odds and maybe even challenge for victory.

Practical Move doesn’t mind racing in traffic, having rallied up the rail to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in succession. He’s one of the fastest contenders on paper after posting a trio of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings and can’t be counted out of the Kentucky Derby win picture.

Disarm rallied nicely from behind a slow pace to finish second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but a subsequent third in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland was less inspiring. He’ll need a rebound to his Louisiana Derby form if he’s going to challenge on Derby Day.

A gate-to-wire winner of the Gun Runner S. during the winter, Jace’s Road exits a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), where he weakened to finish third after pressing a slow pace. He’ll need improvement to factor against tougher competition at Churchill Downs.

Stretch-running Sun Thunder is adding blinkers after cracking the top five without winning in a quartet of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. This is by far his toughest test to date, but if the blinkers sharpen Sun Thunder’s focus and speed, improvement isn’t out of the question.

Angel of Empire unleashed giant homestretch rallies to win the Risen Star (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) in eye-catching fashion. He finished seriously fast on the clock in the Arkansas Derby, and a similar turn-of-foot at Churchill Downs will put Angel of Empire in contention for victory.

Last year’s champion two-year-old male Forte has won five consecutive graded stakes, including four Grade 1 prizes. He overcame an unfavorable trip to rally and win the Florida Derby (G1) with a big move down the homestretch and ranks as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs.

Raise Cain capitalized on a fast pace to post a 7 1/2-length romp in the Gotham (G3), but followed up with a fifth-place finish behind Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass (G1). His career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating looks a bit light against the Kentucky Derby field.

Japanese raider Derma Sotogake made a terrific impression in the UAE Derby (G2), leading all the way to win by 5 1/2 lengths in a very fast time. He’s versatile in terms of running style, and drawing an outside post gives him options for setting or stalking the pace as needed. The UAE Derby has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, but Derma Sotogake appears poised to change that storyline.

Rocket Can won the Holy Bull (G3) during the winter, but a distant runner-up finish behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a fourth to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby (G1) suggest Rocket Can has form to find against the Kentucky Derby favorites. Perhaps adding blinkers will trigger a step forward.

Lord Miles came out on the winning end of a three-horse photo finish in the Wood Memorial (G2), springing a 59-1 upset to qualify to the Kentucky Derby. It was a fine effort, but Lord Miles previously finished off the board in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Holy Bull (G3), so he needs to find a way to turn the tables on Tapit Trice and Rocket Can.

The second Japanese raider is Continuar, winner of the Cattleya S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished behind Derma Sotogake for the third time when coming home third by 10 lengths in the UAE Derby, so Continuar has form to find against his compatriot.

Third behind Forte in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), Cyclone Mischief has speed and figures to be at least a pace player if he draws in off the Kentucky Derby also-eligible list.

The second also-eligible entrant is Mandarin Hero, who rallied strongly to finish second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). That effort yielded a sharp 100 Brisnet Speed rating, so Mandarin Hero can’t be counted out of the mix if he’s allowed to start on Saturday.

King Russell launched a nice rally from off the pace to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), earning a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating, but he’ll need three scratches to get a rematch with Angel of Empire in the Kentucky Derby.