Study Guide: 2025 Lexington Stakes

Apr 09, 2025 J. Keeler Johnson/TwinSpires.com

Bracket Buster wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby wraps up on Saturday with the running of the $400,000 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, a 1 1/16-mile qualifier worth 20-10-6-4-2 points.

Nine horses have entered the Lexington, though at least two appear likely to scratch. Let’s take a horse-by-horse look at the field:

Hard as Life

Hard as Life wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Circle 8
Breeder: Tropical Racing
Trainer: Michelle Nihei
Jockey: Sophie Doyle

Top Speed Rating: (82) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $92,237

Sire: Gun Runner
Dam: Dreaming as Always
Color: Chestnut

Hard as Life finished sixth in his only stakes start to date, and his career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating looks light against the Lexington field. But perhaps trying dirt for the first time can trigger improvement from this son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.

Bracket Buster

Bracket Buster wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 4
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: BBN Racing
Breeder: David Baxter
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Jockey: Manny Franco

Top Speed Rating: (83) when winning a Keeneland maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $66,873

Sire: Vekoma
Dam: Spring Dance
Color: Bay

Bracket Buster hasn’t raced since finishing fifth in the Oct. 27 Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. The top three finishers in that tough Road to the Kentucky Derby have gone on to win the Arkansas Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2), and Fountain of Youth (G2), so Bracket Buster figures to find the competition easier in the Lexington. Don’t be surprised if he outruns his 20-1 morning-line odds.

Bullard

Bullard (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: By Talla Racing, St. Elias Stable, Three Chimneys Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds
Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $129,000

Sire: Gun Runner
Dam: Reve d’Amour
Color: Dark bay/brown

Bullard capitalized on a blazing pace to rally and win the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) with a flashy 99 Brisnet Speed rating. But he regressed to an 86 when finishing third in a slow-paced edition of the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2). It remains to be seen whether stretching out over 1 1/16 miles will help this late-running son of Gun Runner or push the limits of his stamina.

Rolando

Rolando wins the Hutcheson. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to G Sonny Hughes)

Start(s): 7
Wins: 3
Place: 1
Show: 2

Owner: St. George Stable
Breeder: St. George Stables
Trainer: Fausto Gutierrez
Jockey: John Velazquez

Top Speed Rating: (95) when winning a Gulfstream Park allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $172,860

Sire: Vekoma
Dam: Mixteca
Color: Chestnut

Rolando has shown excellent speed sprinting, most notably taking the six-furlong Hutcheson S. at Gulfstream Park. But he finished fourth in the seven-furlong Lafayette S. on Monday at Keeneland and may scratch from the Lexington rather than tackle 1 1/16 miles on short rest.

Native Runner

Start(s): 6
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: Calumet Farm
Breeder: Siena Farms
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Fair Grounds $50,000 starter optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $44,705

Sire: Laoban
Dam: Intermittent
Color: Bay

Native Runner showed newfound early speed when trouncing a $50,000 starter optional claimer at Fair Grounds last month by 4 1/4 lengths. The Lexington is a tougher spot, but Native Runner is progressing in the right direction for trainer Kenny McPeek, who has won this race twice since 2017.

Gosger

Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stables
Breeder: Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stable
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning a Gulfstream Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $50,400

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Gloria S
Color: Gray/roan

Gosger survived a pace duel to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 1 1/2 lengths. He earned a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating and is bred to shine while stretching out around two turns in the Lexington, so Gosger is a logical win threat for hot trainer Brendan Walsh.

Praetor

Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: William H. Lawrence, CHP Racing, and Gainesway Stable
Breeder: Bridlewood Farm and Alter’s Racing Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Top Speed Rating: (89) when winning an Aqueduct maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $107,700

Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Curlin’s Approval
Color: Bay

Last fall at Aqueduct, Praetor led all the way to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct over Sovereignty, who has since won the Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Following a lengthy break, Praetor returned to action with a 7 1/2-length romp in a one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, suggesting he’s the horse to beat in the Lexington.

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Hypnus

Hypnus wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Brookdale Racing
Breeder: Phoenix Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Luis Saez

Top Speed Rating: (92) when winning a Fair Grounds maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $77,250

Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Dream Tree
Color: Bay

Flashy debut winner Hypnus struggled in his first two Road to the Kentucky Derby appearances, finishing seventh in the Rebel (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). But Hypnus earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings even in defeat, and the Lexington is an easier race, so the door is open for Hypnus to challenge for a much stronger finish.

Touchy

Touchy wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 2

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm
Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Joel Rosario

Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning a Keeneland maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $202,350

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Touch the Moon
Color: Bay

Touchy picked up Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points when finishing third in the Sunland Park Derby. He followed up with a third-place finish in Monday’s Lafayette S. at Keeneland. All told, Touchy has recorded five top-four finishes against stakes company, so his consistency is admirable. But it’s possible he’ll scratch from the Lexington rather than run back five days after the Lafayette.