Study Guide: 2026 Rebel Stakes

Feb 25, 2026 J. Keeler Johnson/TwinSpires.com

Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Sunday’s running of the $1 million Rebel (G2) over 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park is packed with accomplished graded stakes horses, which is fitting for a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers.

Let’s take a horse-by-horse tour through the Rebel field:

Bravaro

Bravaro wins at Bemont at the Big A. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Albert Ciuffetelli, Stephanie S. Brennan, Shining Stables, BAG Racing Stables, and Paul Braverman
Breeder: Stephanie Baltzan
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Top Speed Rating: (92) when finishing second in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $203,500

Sire: Upstart
Dam: Opera Star
Color: Bay

Bravaro is slated to scratch and compete in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) instead.

Litmus Test

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Breeder: Machmer Hall
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Top Speed Rating: (102) when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $350,188

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Study Hard
Color: Bay

Litmus Test is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Rebel eight times since 2010. Litmus Test has competed three times on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, recording top-four finishes against champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) before ending 2025 with a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). These strong efforts against fierce competition stamp Litmus Test as a serious win contender in the Rebel.

Class President

Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Top Speed Rating: (93) when finishing second in the Swale S. at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $53,700

Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Top Quality
Color: Bay

Class President won his debut in a one-mile maiden special weight, then cut back in distance to finish second in the seven-furlong Swale S. behind the undefeated Solitude Dude. Class President is bred to shine racing 1 1/16 miles, so stretching back out in distance for the Rebel may unlock his best performance to date.

Blackout Time

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: BR Thoroughbreds, Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing
Breeder: Newstead Corp
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (93) when finishing second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Total Earnings: $210,691

Sire: Not This Time
Dam: Beauty Parlor
Color: Dark bay/brown

Blackout Time ran a strong race against champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity last fall, finishing second by 2 3/4 lengths while pulling 2 1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Litmus Test. He hasn’t raced since, but quick recent workouts at Fair Grounds suggest Blackout Time will produce another competitive performance in his return.

Honey’s to Blame

Honey's to Blame wins at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 2

Owner: John Holleman and Magdalena Racing
Breeder: Jackie D. Hopkins
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel

Top Speed Rating: (82) when winning a $150,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $161,200

Sire: Blame
Dam: Harlee Honey
Color: Bay

Honey’s to Blame fought gamely to win a recent $150,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn. He’s progressing in the right direction, but must improve upon his career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating to challenge tougher foes in the Rebel.

Strategic Risk

Strategic Risk wins the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media/Kara West)

Start(s): 7
Wins: 3
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: John C. Oxley
Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Javier Castellano

Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S. at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $417,300

Sire: Noble Bird
Dam: Strategize
Color: Bay

Strategic Risk struggled in the Southwest (G3) over this track and distance on Feb. 6, finishing 10th after making a mild mid-race move. But two starts back, he dominated the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn over next-out Southwest winner Silent Tactic. Strategic Risk is a force to reckon with on his best day, but must rebound if he’s going to factor in the Rebel.

Silent Tactic

Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: John C. Oxley
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Cristian Torres

Top Speed Rating: (92) when winning the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $594,422

Sire: Tacitus
Dam: Magical Sign
Color: Bay

Silent Tactic was compromised by a slow pace when rallying late to finish second behind Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones. A much faster pace in the Southwest allowed Silent Tactic to surge from 11th place and dominate by 3 1/4 lengths. The large field entered in the Rebel should ensure another honest pace, allowing Silent Tactic to challenge for victory once again.

SILENT TACTIC with a last to first win in the G3 Southwest and picks up 20 points towards the @kentuckyderby! 🔇🌹@markecasse trains the son of Tacitus and @cristiantorr64 was aboard!

At 12/1, the colt paid $26 to win. 💰

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/wbw8JL3i9L

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 6, 2026

Rancho Santa Fe

Rancho Santa Fe wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Gary and Mary West Stables
Breeder: Gary and Mary West Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (88) when finishing fourth in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $189,457

Sire: Tapit
Dam: Family Tree
Color: Chestnut

Rancho Santa Fe earned Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points when finishing fifth in the Smarty Jones and fourth in the Southwest. His consistency warrants respect, but he’ll need to improve from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective if he’s going to beat the toughest field he’s faced to date in the Rebel.

Time for Music

Time For Music wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Mike McCarty
Breeder: International Equities Holding
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Keith Asmussen

Top Speed Rating: (87) when finishing second in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $100,016

Sire: Not This Time
Dam: Bling On the Music
Color: Gray/roan

Time for Music has shown flashes of talent, winning a Keeneland maiden special weight and finishing second in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. But his last two starts have been disappointing, including a ninth-place finish in the Remington Springboard Mile S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He’ll need to do better to factor in the Rebel.

Soldier N Diplomat

Soldier N Diplomat wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: St. Elias Stable
Breeder: Machmer Hall
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $350,634

Sire: Army Mule
Dam: Diplomatic Miss
Color: Dark bay/brown

Soldier N Diplomat launched a strong outside challenge in the Southwest and looked like a possible winner until Silent Tactic surged past in the homestretch. Even still, Soldier N Diplomat held on for second place. He’s progressing in the right direction and warrants respect in the Rebel.