Takeaways from 2024 Rebel

Feb 27, 2024 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The $1.25 million Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 24 offered points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale as part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, and a full field of 12 lined up for the 1 1/16-mile race. Oaklawn’s final prep, the $1.5 Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 30, will be worth a combined 200 points (100-50-25-15-10) as a major qualifier for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4.

Here are three takeaways from the Rebel.

Encouraging comeback for Timberlake

Unraced since a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Timberlake got the job done off a 113-day layoff in the Rebel, rallying from just off the pace to score going away by two lengths, and his performance was more workmanlike than spectacular. And perhaps that a good thing, as Timberlake failed to duplicate a pair smashing wins last season.

Trainer Brad Cox is building toward the Kentucky Derby, and Timberlake will be a candidate to keep advancing when lining up for his final prep race.

After a romping 9 1/4-length maiden win last summer, Timberlake faltered as the favorite in the Hopeful (G1), finishing second in a slow rendition. He came back to record an impressive win in the Champagne (G1), leaving subsequent champion two-year-old male champion Fierceness and others in his wake while drawing off smartly to a 4 1/4-length decision, but Timberlake came up empty in the stretch of the Juvenile next out, weakening to finish eight lengths back in fourth.

Bettors hammered him down to 4-5 in the Rebel and Timberlake overcame a wide trip to prove best, generating a 97 Brisnet Speed and 103 Late Pace ratings. Those numbers are eligible to keep increasing, and Timberlake confirmed himself as a serious Kentucky Derby contender.

Timberlake earned 50 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150 on Saturday with a win in the Rebel Stakes @OaklawnRacing!

Click the link below to add the @bradcoxracing trainee to your TwinSpires Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/jRIwExxvL6 pic.twitter.com/HMYX1ZQBqj

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 26, 2024

Longer distances loom

By Into Mischief, a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning sire, Timberlake projects to receive a heavy dose of stamina from his female family. He hails from a mare by Preakness (G1) winner Lookin at Lucky, and Timberlake’s second maternal dam is by world-renowned European classic sire Sadler’s Wells.

And given his natural speed, Timberlake appears well-suited for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby trip, but longer distances remain a valid question despite his bloodlines. Both wins last year came at one-turn distances and his first two-turn attempt, the Juvenile, raised red flags.

Timberlake passed his second two-turn test in the Rebel, but we’ve seen numerous one-turn types get a 1 1/16-mile distance early in their three-year-old season. I won’t put longer distances past him, but Timberlake must still prove it.

Quality of competition

Timberlake can only beat the horses who line up to face him, and he didn’t appear to be facing the cream of the crop in the Rebel.

Southwest (G3) and Smarty Jones runner-up Just Steel never fired finishing seventh as the 9-2 second choice. Carbone, who set the pace as the 5-1 third choice, confirmed his affinity for lesser distances weakening to sixth. Last-out maiden scorer Dimatic, who at 9-1 was the only other Rebel contestant at single-digit odds, made little impact in fifth.

Common Defense improved upon a well-beaten fifth in the Southwest, rallying to be a clear second at 27-1, but he had never earned a Speed rating better than 80 in previous starts. Northern Flame attended the pace and was fortunate to hold third while weakening late; he may prefer middle distances moving forward.

The Arkansas Derby is a likely target for Timberlake, and the competition may get much stiffer next time.