Top 12 to follow on the Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby

Sep 09, 2025 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Ted Noffey romps in the Hopeful

Hopeful (G1) hero Ted Noffey is another budding star for leading sire Into Mischief (Photo by Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photos)

How to follow the Derby trail

As the calendar turns to fall, two-year-old Thoroughbreds with dreams of making next year’s $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) will begin to take their first steps on the trail.

The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby officially kicks off with Saturday’s Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, the historic racetrack where the “Run for the Roses” is held on the first Saturday in May.

Over the next several months, as the Road unfolds, hopefuls will have plenty of opportunities to score points in designated races that serve as qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby.

Because young horses are developing at various rates through their two-year-old and three-year-old seasons, many well-regarded prospects might not even have raced yet. Those who have raced already could peak this year, or prefer to run over shorter distances than required on the Road to the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. Others may thrive over time, ultimately becoming better horses than the ones who look like the top of the class right now.

This year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, is a case in point. He didn’t break his maiden – meaning score his first win – until late October 2024. But he had shown promise in his earlier races as a two-year-old before his breakthrough, and he just kept improving as he matured into the star three-year-old of 2025.

That’s what makes following the Derby trail from the beginning so much fun. Have we seen the 2026 Derby winner yet? Or is the future champion still training toward his racetrack debut?

If it’s early from the standpoint of horses’ development, it’s never too early to talk Derby!

Top 12 to follow

In that spirit, here’s my idea of the most interesting potential Derby candidates we’ve seen over the summer:

Ted Noffey, Hopeful (G1) winner trained by Todd Pletcher
Brant, Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner trained by Bob Baffert
Desert Gate, Del Mar Futurity runner-up trained by Baffert
Ewing, Saratoga Special (G2) winner trained by Mark Casse
It’s Our Time, 17 3/4-length Saratoga debut winner trained by Tom Amoss
Big Dom, debut winner of a key Saratoga maiden race for Amoss
Golden Tornado, Saratoga debut winner trained by Danny Gargan
Talkin, Saratoga debut winner trained by Gargan
Plutarch, Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) runner-up trained by Baffert
Kristofferson, Del Mar debut winner trained by Baffert
Blackout Time, Ellis Park maiden winner trained by Kenny McPeek
Rancho Santa Fe, Ellis Park debut winner trained by Brad Cox

You can add these youngsters to your Stable Alerts on TwinSpires.com to keep tabs on them and get notified when they’re entered to race.

Why are these 12 prospects worth following?

Ted Noffey

Spendthrift Farm’s Ted Noffey extended his record to a perfect 2-for-2 in the Hopeful, the marquee race for two-year-olds at Saratoga. The Pletcher trainee was not only visually impressive when drawing off by 8 1/2 lengths, but he also ran fast enough to earn a lofty 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

By leading sire Into Mischief, who is responsible for three Derby winners so far, Ted Noffey was following up on his strong debut win at the same track. In that first start on Aug. 2, he clocked a faster time for 6 1/2 furlongs than Ewing did in the Saratoga Special.

Brant

Brant was a hot commodity before he even raced. Zedan Racing Stables went to $3 million – a record price at the OBS March Sale – to purchase him as two-year-old in training. The son of Hall of Famer Gun Runner has proven worthy of that investment by capturing both starts at Del Mar. After romping in his debut, Brant beat his Baffert stablemate Desert Gate by one length in the Del Mar Futurity, the premier juvenile race of Del Mar’s summer season.

Desert Gate

Although Desert Gate suffered his first loss in the Del Mar Futurity, he might have posed a greater threat to Brant if he’d had a clean trip. Desert Gate had crushed both prior starts by forcing the early pace and opening up on the field. That’s how he won the local prep, the Best Pal (G3), by 8 3/4 lengths.

In the Futurity, Desert Gate got off to a troubled start, had to scramble from farther behind, and did very well in the circumstances. Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman’s son of Omaha Beach is eligible to bounce back with a better start.

Ewing

D. J. Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and Kenneth Freirich’s Ewing is a well-named colt from the first crop of Horse of the Year Knicks Go. Living up to his namesake, basketball legend Patrick Ewing, he won both of his starts at Saratoga in front-running fashion. The Casse pupil was much flashier in his 12-length debut rout than he was in the Saratoga Special. That’s understandable because in the Special, he rushed up from a sluggish start.

Note that Ewing was born later in the foaling season, May 9, suggesting that he may have more scope to develop physically over time than those who were born earlier. His pedigree reinforces the idea that we’ve yet to see the best from him. His sire, Knicks Go, showed ability at two but hit his peak as an older horse.

It's Our Time

Double Down Horse Racing’s It’s Our Time was the most sensational maiden winner of the Saratoga meet. The son of red-hot sire Not This Time blitzed the field by 17 3/4 lengths, good for a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, in a memorable debut for Amoss.

While It’s Our Time has exceptional talent, the possible question mark is his aptitude for longer distances. His mother was purely a sprinter, so it’s not clear how far he wants to go. Still, he promises to make noise on the Derby trail. Maybe the classic influences elsewhere in his pedigree will prove more significant than his mother’s personal stamina limitations.

Big Dom

Amoss sent out another debut winner, Greenwell Thoroughbreds’ Big Dom, in the maiden on Travers Day that has a history of producing top-notch performers. A sometime workmate of It’s Our Time, Big Dom appears to be a different type. He chased the early leader Dr. Kapur and took longer to drive past, doing his best work in deep stretch to prevail by a neck.

Like Ewing, Big Dom is a late foal who was born May 5. His sire, McKinzie, likewise excelled with maturity. It wouldn’t be a shock if Big Dom turns out to be more of a classic contender than It’s Our Time.

Golden Tornado

McKinzie is also the sire of Golden Tornado, who looked sharp in his Saratoga debut. Trained by Gargan for Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, breeder Gainesway, and Legendary Thoroughbreds, Golden Tornado rolled to a 3 1/4-length score despite racing greenly. Runner-up Oscar’s Hope, yet another notable juvenile from the Amoss barn, came back to win handsomely in his next outing at Saratoga.

Golden Tornado is a half-brother to Verifire, hero of the seven-furlong Maxfield S. at Churchill Downs this summer. Their mother was a sprinter.

Talkin

But Gargan’s other powerful debut winner, Talkin, has an ironclad pedigree for the classics.

Talkin is by champion Good Magic, the sire of 2023 Kentucky Derby upsetter Mage, and out of a mare by Hall of Famer Tiznow. With such stamina-oriented bloodlines, he might have been expected to need a longer distance to break his maiden.

It’s an encouraging sign that Talkin rallied successfully going seven furlongs at Saratoga. The torrid pace set the stage for him, but he wasn’t a deep closer trying to come from way out of it. Talkin had the gears to secure good early position, only a couple of lengths back. That was clutch, since he chugged on greenly in the stretch and just got up by a neck.

Moreover, Talkin’s final time was more than a full second faster than another big maiden winner on the card, Universe. Talkin was almost as fast as the brilliant filly Tommy Jo in the Spinaway (G1), making him an exciting prospect for Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Pine Racing Stables, Legendary Thoroughbreds, and Belmar Racing and Breeding.

Plutarch

Plutarch similarly has loads of upside for Baffert, even though he’s still a maiden. Coolmore’s homebred son of Into Mischief and champion Stellar Wind signaled potential in both of his second-place efforts going a mile at Del Mar. He’s running greenly, like a colt who needs to catch up mentally to what’s required of him in racing. But he appears to have the physical tools.

There was a certain something about Plutarch’s stride, the way he leveled off once finally in gear, when he charged home belatedly in his debut. The winner, the Jeff Mullins-trained Intrepido, is an excellent prospect who was almost on this list himself. But Plutarch may eventually outstrip him on the Derby trail.

Plutarch switched from the main dirt track to grass for the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he made a bold move from last and just couldn’t catch the unbeaten Hey Nay Nay. Still very much a work in progress, Plutarch could be formidable once he puts it all together.

Kristofferson

Stablemate Kristofferson won his debut for Baffert in fast time, recording a 99 Speed rating, in the manner of a colt capable of even better. A $1.15 million yearling by 2016 Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist, Kristofferson set the pace, repelled a stiff challenge, and galloped out well clear. His ownership consortium led by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables is always well stocked with colts for the Derby trail.

Blackout Time

Rounding out my dozen to follow are a pair of Ellis Park maiden winners with the pedigree and connections to shine on bigger stages.

Brookdale Racing and Lance Gasaway’s Blackout Time demolished a one-mile maiden at Ellis in his second start, just as sire Not This Time did during his own juvenile campaign. In his debut at Churchill, Blackout Time was runner-up in a very fast sprint maiden. The McPeek trainee relished stepping up in trip next time and powered home by 9 3/4 lengths.

Blackout Time has abundant stamina on his mother’s side. He’s out of a mare who scored her signature win over 1 1/2 miles on turf.

Rancho Santa Fe

Rancho Santa Fe wasn’t as jaw-dropping in his Ellis victory going a mile, but he was making his career debut at that demanding distance. A Gary and Mary West homebred from the Cox barn, he traveled well throughout and strode clear. It’s all onwards and upwards from here for the blueblood son of Tapit and multiple graded stakes heroine Family Tree.

Now let’s see how many of these manage to earn their way into the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2, 2026!

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