How to attack pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager

The initial pool of the 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wager begins on Thursday, November 28 at 12 p.m. (EST), and runs through Sunday, December 1 at 6 p.m., (EST). The wager offers 22 individual horse entries, an option for “All 3-Year-Old Fillies”, and a choice for “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts & Geldings”. 

Getting fair value for the bet is no easy task, as more can go wrong than right over the course of the next five months.

Just making the gate on the First Saturday in May is no sure thing, and it is worth noting that only four sophomores (Code of Honor, Game Winner, Roadster, Improbable) in Pool 1 last year competed in the Kentucky Derby.

The “All Fillies” option is one play that I will consider this season.

There is a recent trend in racing where owners are seemingly becoming more ‘sporting’ with their stars. Standouts Enable, Midnight Bisou, Game Winner and Monomoy Girl, are just a few examples of champions that will remain in training in 2020, rather than shift their focus to the breeding game.

And with this is mind, I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple fillies test their mettle against the boys on the 2020 “Road to the Kentucky Derby” challenge series.

Those successfully wagering on the Mutuel Field in Pool 1 last year received 6-5 odds. This play is the most logical choice from a percentage standpoint, and a 120% return on investment in five months yields a better rate than a savings account at your local bank.

As for the individual entries, demanding a price north of 40-1 odds this early in the game is a prerequisite to me. And I am intrigued by a pair of candidates in Pool 1.

Saratoga Special S. (G2) winner #10 Green Light Go (50-1) is one of those. The Stronach Stables’ homebred displayed considerable ability at two, he is in the hands of a top horseman in Jimmy Jerkens, and the well-built colt is bred to run long. His third dam is a full-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Jade Hunter.

#20 Three Technique (50-1) has a great foundation under him with four starts in 2019. The recent allowance winner has been first or second in each try to date, and his running style suggests that he might thrive when stretching out in distance. The $180,000 son of Mr. Speaker will be stakes bound in his next assignment.

Happy Thanksgiving!