Who Wins if it Rains? A Look at 20 Years of Off-Tracks on the First Saturday in May

Apr 29, 2026 Sara Dacus/TwinSpires.com

Sovereignty wins the 151st Kentucky Derby. (Photo by Coady Media)

While the traditional pre-race song states, “O the sun shines bright on my old Kentucky home,” history confirms that this is not always the case on the first Saturday in May.

This year, the forecast looks favorable for the 152nd renewal of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, but Louisville spring weather is unpredictable, and rapid shifts can bring bursts of unexpected precipitation. Renegade is the morning-line favorite, but who wins if it rains? Should horse players stick with favorites or look to longshots? Here is a look at twenty years of rainy Kentucky Derby editions and their trends.

2025—Sovereignty

At post time, Sovereignty was the third choice in the wagering. His resume included a win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a second-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). He had never raced on an off-track. Sent off at 7-1, he upset the favorite Journalism on a sloppy surface, returning $17.96 for a $2 win ticket.

Sovereignty went on to prove that the Kentucky Derby was no fluke. His connections decided to bypass the Preakness (G1) in favor of focusing on the Belmont (G1). In this third and final leg of the Triple Crown, Sovereignty again beat Journalism, this time by three lengths. He remained undefeated the rest of his sophomore season, winning the Jim Dandy (G2) by a length and then romping home in the Travers (G1) ten lengths ahead of the field.

2019—Country House

Rain was just one unexpected factor in the 145th Kentucky Derby. Maximum Security, second choice on the morning line, crossed the finish line first. Then, the “objection” sign flashed on the tote board. Two jockeys claimed foul against Maximum Security for interference turning for home. After a 22-minute review, the stewards disqualified him and declared Country House, at 65-1 odds, the winner. He is the only horse to win the Derby via an on-track disqualification.

In his previous start, Country House finished third on a sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby (G1) behind Omaha Beach and Improbable. Heading into the Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach was the first choice on the morning line, but three days before the race, he scratched due to a breathing issue. Improbable went off as the favorite.

Country House experienced several medical issues in the weeks and months after wearing the roses. In February, his connections announced his retirement. The Kentucky Derby was his final race.

2018—Justify

Lightly raced Justify entered the Derby as the favorite despite not starting as a two-year-old, putting him up against the “Curse of Apollo,” a trend dating to Apollo’s 1882 win. In the 136 years that followed, no horse without juvenile experience had won the Derby. However, Justify had three impressive wins on his resume, including an allowance race by 6 1/2 lengths on a muddy track and the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Under the Twin Spires, Justify took command at the half-mile pole and roared away to a 2 1/2-length victory over Good Magic. He followed with wins in the Preakness and Belmont, becoming the 13th—and most recent—Triple Crown winner. He retired soon after.

2017—Always Dreaming

The sun did shine on the 143rd Kentucky Derby, but intermittent rain throughout the undercard left the track labeled wet fast. Always Dreaming, a 9-2 favorite, had no experience on wet tracks, but he splashed through the damp footing to win by 2 3/4 lengths, giving trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez their second Derby victories.

2013—Orb

At post time on a rainy day, Orb remained the favorite, despite not having experience on an off-track. Three contenders had strong showings on sloppy surfaces: Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack won stakes races, and Palace Malice finished second.

However, Orb was much the best and started a six-year stretch in which favorites won the Kentucky Derby. This trend ended with Country House’s win.

Shug McGaughey trained Orb for cousins Stuart Janney and Ogden Mills 'Dinny' Phipps. Phipps' late father, Ogden, owned Easy Goer and the undefeated Personal Ensign. Janney's parents owned the star filly Ruffian. At the time of Orb’s win, Dinny Phipps was chair of The Jockey Club, while Janney served as vice chairman.

The Derby was Orb’s fifth consecutive win and his last.

2010—Super Saver

Heavy rains fell throughout the day of the 136th Kentucky Derby. At post time, the sun was shining, but the track was still sloppy. Super Saver was the 8-1 second-choice behind the favorite Lookin At Lucky.

Calvin Borel tucked Super Saver along the rail, and, for the third time in four years, took the shortest path to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle.

Super Saver’s win was the third and final of his career.

2009—Mine That Bird

As a two-year-old, Mine That Bird won four races at Woodbine Racetrack in Canada. He moved to the U.S. and was winless in three starts prior to the Derby. Trainer Chip Woolley, who was nursing a broken leg, trailered the undersized horse from New Mexico to Kentucky himself.

Overnight rains that lasted until 10:30 a.m. left the track sloppy at Kentucky Derby post time. At 50-1 odds, Mine That Bird came from last place to win by 6 3/4 lengths, the largest margin of victory since 1946. Jockey Calvin Borel won his second Derby with a dramatic rail-skimming move.

Mine That Bird’s $103.20 payout for a $2 bet was the second largest in Kentucky Derby history behind only Donerail, who paid $184.90 in 1913. Country House later passed Mine That Bird with a $132.40 payoff. In 2022, these records changed again when Rich Strike scored an 80-1 victory on a fast track, paying $163.60.

The movie 50 to 1 is based on the story of Mine That Bird. Calvin Borel plays himself.

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