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Study Guide: 2023 Kentucky Oaks

May 03, 2023 J. Keeler Johnson

By J. Keeler Johnson 

A deep and competitive field has assembled for Friday's $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs.

The 149th running of the 1 1/8-mile race has drawn 17 entries, including three also-eligibles. Flashy stakes winners Wet Paint, Botanical, and Southlawn (all unbeaten this year) rank as the three favorites, but there are many other viable contenders in the mix.

Let's meet the full field:

Mimi Kakushi
Total 5 start(s) Top Speed Rating: N/A
Wins: 3 Total Earnings: $212,700
Place: 0
Show: 
Owner: Godolphin, lessee Sire: City of Light
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds Dam: Rite Moment
Trainer: Salem bin Ghadayer Color: Bay
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona

UAE Oaks (G3) winner Mimi Kakushi has won three straight in Dubai, but is stepping up in class for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and must prove she can handle this level of competition.

The Alys Look
Total 6 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $190,528
Place: 1
Show: 2
Owner: Dawn and Ike Thrash Sire: Connect
Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. Dam: Foul Play
Trainer: Brad Cox Color: Bay
Jockey: Javier Castellano

The Alys Look is versatile in terms of running style and won the Silverbulletday S. during the winter, but a distant third-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) suggests she needs to improve to factor on Friday.

Gambling Girl
Total 9 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (98) when finishing second in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $257,410
Place: 2
Show: 2
Owner: Repole Stable Sire: Dialed In
Breeder: Gallagher's Stud Dam: Tulipmania
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Color: Bay
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

A top-four finisher in four consecutive Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep races, Gambling Girl exits a close runner-up effort in the Gazelle (G3). She rallied well from behind a slow pace and can’t be counted out of the mix.

Southlawn
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Fair Grounds allowance optional claimer.
Wins: 3 Total Earnings: $318,369
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Robert E. Masterson Sire: Pioneerof the Nile
Breeder: WinStar Farm Dam: Mo d'Amour
Trainer: Norm Casse Color: Bay
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez

Southlawn is 2-for-2 this season, most recently rallying to a 3 1/4-length score in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). The stoutly bred filly enters off sharp workouts and is a key win threat.

Wonder Wheel
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (92) when finishing sixth in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $1,578,225
Place: 2
Show: 0
Owner: D. J. Stable Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm and Clearsky Farms Dam: Wonder Gal
Trainer: Mark Casse Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario

Last year’s champion two-year-old filly has struggled a bit this season and exits a sixth-place finish in the Ashland (G1). She’ll need a rebound to challenge in her toughest contest since winning the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

Botanical
Total 6 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $374,410
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Clearsky Farms and Godolphin Dam: Daisy
Trainer: Brad Cox Color: Bay
Jockey: Chris Landeros

Botanical is unbeaten in four starts over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park, including a 2 1/2-length score in the Bourbonette Oaks. She has lots of speed and looms as a formidable pacesetting threat while trying dirt at Churchill Downs.

Wet Paint
Total 6 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $689,000
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: Godolphin Sire: Blame
Breeder: Godolphin Dam: Sky Painter
Trainer: Brad Cox Color: Bay
Jockey: Flavien Prat

The expected favorite has unleashed giant homestretch rallies to win the Martha Washington S., Honeybee (G3), and Fantasy (G3) in succession. Wet Paint boasts a strong series of Brisnet Late Pace ratings and is the filly to beat in the Kentucky Oaks.

Promiseher America
Total 4 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $198,138
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: Hoffman Thoroughbreds, Tom F. McCrocklin, and Medallion Racing Sire: American Pharoah
Breeder: Robert Low and Lawana Low Dam: Promisedyouheaven
Trainer: Raymond Handal Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Jorge A. Vargas Jr.

Promiseher America has improved by leaps and bounds while stretching out in distance, but benefited from tracking a slow pace when winning the Gazelle (G3). She’ll likely face a quicker pace in the Oaks.

And Tell Me Nolies
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita.
Wins: 3 Total Earnings: $472,800
Place: 2
Show: 0
Owner: Peter Redekop B. C. Sire: Arrogate
Breeder: Lara Run Dam: Be Fair
Trainer: Peter Miller Color: Bay
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Winner of the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier (G2) as a juvenile, And Tell Me Nolies has finished second in both her starts this year, including the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). It’s possible she prefers racing shorter distances than the 1 1/8 miles she’ll tackle at Churchill Downs.

Flying Connection
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (96) when winning the Sunland Park Oaks at Sunland Park.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $294,700
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Brad King, Randy Andrews, Chris G. Coleman, Jim Cone, Suzanne Kirby, and Lee Lewis Sire: Nyquist
Breeder: Liberty Road Stables Dam: Free Flying Soul
Trainer: Todd Fincher Color: Bay
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Flying Connection is a wildcard after winning four of her last five starts in New Mexico, including the Sunland Park Oaks. Her gate-to-wire Sunland Park Oaks triumph produced a sharp 96 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting she’s fast enough to factor at Churchill Downs.

Defining Purpose
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 3 Total Earnings: $543,688
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Magdalena Racing, Colette Marie VanMatre, and James Ball Sire: Cross Traffic
Breeder: Colette Marie VanMatre Dam: Defining Hope
Trainer: Kenny McPeek Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Defining Purpose was no match for Wet Paint when third in the Martha Washington and sixth in the Honeybee, but she improved in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, springing a 20-1 upset. She’s progressing in the right direction and can’t be counted out of the mix.

Dorth Vader
Total 8 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Sandpiper S. at Tampa Bay Downs.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $339,633
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: John Ropes Sire: Girvin
Breeder: John Ropes Dam: Hardcore Candy
Trainer: Michael Yates Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: Luis Saez

An impressive winner of the Davona Dale (G2) racing a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, Dorth Vader hasn’t been as productive in two-turn contests, most recently finishing fourth in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). She’ll need improvement to challenge going two turns at Churchill Downs.

Affirmative Lady
Total 6 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (89) when winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $270,568
Place: 1
Show: 2
Owner: AMO Racing USA Sire: Arrogate
Breeder: Alastar Thoroughbred Co Dam: Stiffed
Trainer: Graham Motion Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: John Velazquez

Affirmative Lady unleashed a sharp rally from midfield to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks by two lengths, her third top-three finish in a Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier. But with a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating, she hasn’t run as fast as the Kentucky Oaks favorites.

Pretty Mischievous
Total 6 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning the Rachel Alexandra (G2) at Fair Grounds.
Wins: 4 Total Earnings: $501,310
Place: 1
Show: 1
Owner: Godolphin Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Godolphin Dam: Pretty City Dancer
Trainer: Brendan Walsh Color: Bay
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Pretty Mischievous exits a productive run at Fair Grounds, where she won the Untapable S. and Rachel Alexandra (G2) before finishing second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). She won two of her three starts at Churchill Downs last fall and has top-four potential in the Kentucky Oaks.

Taxed
Total 7 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Wins: 1 Total Earnings: $199,644
Place: 2
Show: 0
Owner: Richard Bahde Sire: Collected
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones Dam: Yankee Union
Trainer: Randy Morse Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

After finishing second behind Wet Paint in the Martha Washington and Fantasy, Taxed is the first also-eligible entrant in an overflow field. She’ll need a scratch in order to compete, but could be a live longshot based on her fine tries against the favorite.

Julia Shining
Total 4 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (97) when finishing third in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 2 Total Earnings: $262,575
Place: 0
Show: 2
Owner: Stonestreet Stables Sire: Curlin
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings Dam: Dreaming of Julia
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Color: Bay
Jockey: Luis Saez

Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2) last fall, Julia Shining produced a determined rally to finish third in the Ashland (G1) last time out. She was beaten less than one length and earned a strong Brisnet Speed rating, but needs two scratches in order to compete on Friday.

Hoosier Philly
Total 5 start(s) Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning the Rags to Riches S. at Churchill Downs.
Wins: 3 Total Earnings: $478,610
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Gold Standard Racing Stable Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Candy Meadows Dam: Tapella
Trainer: Tom Amoss Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Edgar Morales

Hoosier Philly went 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs last year, most notably dominating the Rags to Riches S. and Golden Rod (G2). But distant defeats in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) have left her as the third also-eligible in the Kentucky Oaks field.

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