Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Future Wager results highlight open contests

Feb 17, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Nearly wins the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglainese Photo)

Week 20: It says a bit about the open nature of this year’s Kentucky Derby picture that the top individual still doesn’t hold favoritism in Pool 4 of the Future Wager.

Paladin was rated an 8-1 favorite on the morning line for Pool 4, and duly won his race at the weekend, the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.

But it took him a long time to overhaul Chip Honcho, and it appears not to have unduly impressed punters. He still closed the shortest-priced individual, but it was at 9-1, and the “all other 3-year-olds” option finished a clear 9-2 favorite over the 37 named individuals remaining at the close of betting (Mesquite and Thunderously having dropped out of contention).

Still, Paladin did overcome what appeared to be a bias for on-pace runners at Fair Grounds, and it was his first run in two months. It shows he is a live Derby prospect – albeit not quite at the top of these Power Rankings just yet.

The other Derby preps saw the Saudi-trained Al Haram outfinish Obliteration and long-time Power Rankings inductee Satono Voyage in the Saudi Derby (G3), while Pavlovian’s tight victory over another former Rankings inductee in Express Kid pushed the horse that beat him at his previous start into the Rankings. Read more about their efforts in the Kentucky Derby Roundup, and on impressive youngsters scoring their first victories in the Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch.

Among the fillies, Bella Ballerina showed her guts again to win the Rachel Alexandra (G2), while Bottle of Rouge proved she’s back on track following her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) sixth-place finish when winning the Sunland Park Oaks.

The coming weekend is one for prospects off the usual American dirt trail; there are prep races on the synthetic surfaces at Turfway Park and on the dirt in Dubai and Japan. There will probably need to be some dominant performances if any of the contestants are to make the Power Rankings lists.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, March 13-15, which also includes the only Oaks Future Wager.

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Nearly (1, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 10-1

Nearly closed Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager as second favorite, but he’s staying top of this (highly subjective) list for now. He has that little bit of extra brilliance that Derby winners often have, together with a pedigree that has stamina potential, so at least for now, he stays on top.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Nearly

2.         Paladin (2, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 9-1

Paladin did what you would have hoped on his return to racing when winning the Risen Star, but in this writer’s opinion, didn’t really do anything extra – it took him longer than I would have liked to overhaul Chip Honcho. Still, he proved he’s come back healthy, and he again showed he’s a genuine Derby contender. Stamina looks to be his forte, but he could be susceptible to a horse with a little more speed and acceleration.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

Paladin wins the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

3.         Renegade (4, +1)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 16-1

Renegade’s form continues to be put in a very positive light by the efforts of Paladin. His performance to win at Tampa Bay last week was arguably just as good as Paladin’s Risen Star victory, though assessments of that are tempered a bit by the lesser quality of his opponents. Still well worth his place on this list.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

4.         Brant (3, -1)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 26-1

Continues to work at Santa Anita. I’d like to be hearing a bit more news about his Derby prospects, but there have been reports he could start his three-year-old campaign in either the Rebel (G2) on March 1 or the San Felipe (G2) on March 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

Juvenile contender Brant is a son and grandson of Breeders' Cup winners (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

5.         Napoleon Solo (5, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 30-1

Continues to work solidly in Florida. The Champagne (G1) winner is set to resume Feb. 28 in either the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park or the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Napoleon Solo

Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

6.         Litmus Test (6, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 38-1

Missed the Southwest (G3), but has still looked good in his work. Likely to race next in the San Felipe.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

7.         Further Ado (7, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 24-1

Has almost become forgotten since his Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victory in late November, but he’s still reportedly on target for the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

Further Ado wins the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         Silent Tactic (8, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 19-1

One of the most exciting horses on the Derby trail. Looks likely to stay at Oaklawn Park and race next in the Rebel on March 1.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

9.         Chip Honcho (re-entry)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 65-1

Did we see the real Chip Honcho on Saturday? He was somewhat underwhelming when taking the Gun Runner S. and finishing fourth in the Lecomte (G3), but he produced a much-improved effort to push Paladin very hard in the Risen Star. The reason he was able to was that he relaxed much better in the running, perhaps enjoying the handling from new rider Luis Saez. The challenge for him is to show more consistency.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chip Honcho

Chip Honcho wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

10.   Blackout Time (9,  -1)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 32-1

Put in a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00.00 at Oaklawn Park Feb. 11. An intriguing prospect for the Rebel March 1.

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

11.   Talk to Me Jimmy (11, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 42-1

Likely to get a chance to prove his 11-length Withers S. victory was no fluke in another New York prep, probably the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

Talk to Me Jimmy wins the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

12.   Plutarch (12, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 27-1

The Robert B. Lewis (G3) winner looks the type to continue improving as the season progresses. Expect him to run next in California in either the San Felipe on March 7 or the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Plutarch

Plutarch wins the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

13.   Intrepido (13, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 82-1

Another likely to stick to Californian preps following his second-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis. Ran in a way that suggests he’d appreciate the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby, but as his trainer Jeff Mullins says, he may not want to dance every dance and be a spent force by the first Saturday in May.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

14.   Golden Tempo (10, -4)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 32-1

Perhaps had some limitations shown up in the Risen Star when finishing third after getting a long way back once again, though an apparent on-pace track bias didn’t help. He’s likely to stay 1 1/4 miles, but unless he can find a bit more early speed, his Derby prospects probably depend on a Rich Strike-like suicidal early pace.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

Golden Tempo wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

15.   So Happy (15, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 53-1

Working solidly at Santa Anita and expected to feature next in the San Felipe on March 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: So Happy

So Happy wins the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

16.   Commandment (16, no change)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 23-1

One of the most popular Derby contenders with punters since his Mucho Macho Man S. victory in early January. He’s looking most likely to run next in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

Commandment wins the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

17.   Al Haram (new entry)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 9-2 (All other 3-year-olds option)

Is the Saudi Derby winner a genuine Kentucky Derby contender? He’s not Triple Crown nominated, but the way he rounded off the mile at Riyadh suggests he’ll enjoy further. Expected to get his chance to prove himself in the UAE Derby (G2) on March 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Al Haram

Al Haram rallies to win the Saudi Derby (Photo by Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia / Ali AlZenaidi)

18.   Bravaro (17, -1)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 60-1

Produced a bullet four-furlong breeze in 47.35 seconds at Palm Meadows in Florida in his first workout since finishing second to Nearly in the Holy Bull (G3) Jan. 31. Has a good chance of racing next in the Fountain of Youth Feb. 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bravaro

Bravaro wins at Bemont at the Big A. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

19.   Boyd (18, -1)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 34-1

Still working well at Santa Anita. Still unclear if he’s on the Derby trail – though at closing odds of 34-1 in the Pool 4 Future Wager, he’s still got plenty of friends among players.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Boyd

Boyd works in preparation for the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

20.   Start the Ride (new entry)

Future Wager Pool 4 Closing Odds: 9-2 (All other 3-year-olds option)

Pavlovian’s narrow victory in the Sunland Derby highlighted his bravery, but from a Kentucky Derby picture, the horse that arguably comes out of it best is Start the Ride, who, in his first official race, took out the Cal Cup Derby, 3-1/4 lengths ahead of Pavlovian. He is Triple Crown nominated and may yet be a factor on the Derby trail.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Start the Ride

Start the Ride wins the California Chrome Cup Derby at Santa Anita. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

Largest gain: Renegade (up 1).

Largest fall: Golden Tempo (down 4).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Al Haram (17), Start the Ride (20).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Chip Honcho (9).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Satono Voyage (14th last week), Desert Gate (19th last week), and Strategic Risk (20th last week).

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Zany (1, NC)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

2.         Meaning (2, NC)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

3.         Explora (3, NC)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, NC)

For the second time, Bella Ballerina produced a brave but not particularly fast effort to win at the graded stakes level. She was clearly headed by Luv Your Neighbor in the Rachel Alexandra but showed a lot of grit to stave that opponent off. It didn’t inspire confidence that she’s as sharp as the fillies ahead of her on this list, but it was her first run in more than two months, and she may well improve for the run.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

5.         Super Corredora (5, NC)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

6.         Dazzling Dame (6, NC)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Dazzling Dame

7.         Bottle of Rouge (10, +3)

The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner showed a touch of class to win the Sunland Park Oaks against a decent field, despite losing her bearings shortly after turning for home. She has more to do to prove she’s a genuine Kentucky Oaks contender, but this was encouraging.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

8.         Taken by the Wind (7, -1)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Taken by the Wind

9.         Luv Your Neighbor (re-entry)

For the third time in three Fair Grounds Oaks preps, Luv Your Neighbor found one horse too good for her in the Rachel Alexandra. Intriguingly, it’s been a different filly each time – Hit Parade in the Untapable S., Taken by the Wind in the Silverbulletday S., and Bella Ballerina in the Rachel Alexandra. These have been enough for her to secure third place on the Road to the Oaks leaderboard, and she’s clearly a prospect to get some of the money at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

10.   On Time Girl (8, -2)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: On Time Girl

11.   Life of Joy (9, -2)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

12.   Atropa (11, -1)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Atropa

13.   Galinda (new entry)

The highest Brisnet rating at the weekend for a three-year-old filly came not in an official Oaks prep but in the East View S. for New York-breds at Aqueduct. Galinda remains unbeaten in two starts after waltzing away with the seven-furlong contest by more than nine lengths. As she’s by Good Magic from a Super Saver mare, there is potential to stay further. She could join the Oaks trail in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs on March 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Galinda

14.   Search Party (12, -2)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Search Party

Largest gain: Bottle of Rouge (up 3).

Largest fall: On Time Girl, Life of Joy, Search Party (all down 2).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Galinda (13).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: Luv Your Neighbor (9).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Bank Shot (13th last week), Two Bits (14th last week).

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

Week 19 — Feb. 10, 2026
Week 18 — Feb. 3, 2026
Week 17 — Jan. 27, 2026
Week 16 — Jan. 20, 2026
Week 15 — Jan. 13, 2026
Week 14 — Jan. 6, 2026
Week 13 — Dec. 30, 2025
Week 12 — Dec 23, 2025
Week 11 — Dec. 16, 2025
Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025