Kentucky Derby Power Rankings: Litmus Test Franks Earlier Form [Dec 16]

Dec 16, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

With only one race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and none on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, change has been minimal in the Power Rankings this week.

The main thing that happened in the Derby Road event, the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), was the confirmation that Litmus Test is a deserving contender. Previously, he has been a great yardstick for the top juveniles with his third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

With prior opponents like Ted Noffey, Brant, and Blackout Time absent, Litmus Test took full advantage at Los Alamitos. He proved his mettle but didn’t do anything to enhance his reputation, so his ranking position remained unchanged.

The one horse to force his way onto the list was Los Alamitos Futurity second-place finisher Blacksmith, who finished strongly and looks like a horse that could stay further.

There were some nice performances in other races. The best maiden wins came via Iron Honor at Aqueduct and D’Code at Oaklawn Park, while notable efforts among previous winners came from Thirsty Rebel and Smoovin Saturday at Los Alamitos and from Dirty Rich at Oaklawn. Most, however, came at sprint trips or against state-breds, and they will need to show more to force their way onto this list.

There were no fillies that stood out this week; hence, the Oaks rankings have remained the same.

Things may change in the next week. There are three Derby preps – the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, and the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun on the Japan Road. There is also one Oaks prep, the Untapable S. at Fair Grounds.

Following last week’s focus on trainers for the Oaks, this week we’re looking at some of the potential jockeys for horses on the Derby Power Rankings list.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings. Your next chance to bet on the Derby will be in the Pool 3 Future Wager in mid-January, while the sole Oaks future wager will be available in mid-March.

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey (1, no change).

Ted Noffey has the benefit of veteran jockey John Velazquez, who has a better Kentucky Derby record than most. He’s won three times, with Animal Kingdom, Always Dreaming, and Authentic, and he did everything right in getting past the post first in 2021 aboard Medina Spirit, subsequently disqualified for reasons unrelated to his rider.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Ted Noffey

2.         Mr. A. P. (2, no change)

Italian jockey Antonio Fresu has been riding in the United States since 2002. He has quickly made a mark, ranking 18th on overall earnings last year and 21st to date in 2025. His only Kentucky Derby ride to date came when guiding Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold into seventh in 2024.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Mr. A. P. 

Mr. A. P. wins at Santa Anita 2025
(Photo by Benoit Photography)

3.         Brant (3, no change)

Brant’s regular rider, Flavien Prat, has been among the most consistent Kentucky Derby jockeys in recent years, though he’s yet to cross the post in front. His sole win was via promotion with Country House in 2019, and he also has a promoted second with Hot Rod Charlie and third-place finishes with Baeza, Angel of Empire, Zandon, and Battle of Midway.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

Brant training at Santa Anita, October 2025 (Photo by Horsephotos)

4.         Napoleon Solo (4, no change)

Napoleon Solo won the Champagne (G1) in the hands of Joel Rosario, a Hall of Famer who was the Eclipse Award winner of 2021. He knows what he’s doing in the Kentucky Derby, having won the race with Orb in 2013 and finishing second aboard Epicenter in 2022. He also has Belmont victories to his credit aboard Tonalist and Sir Winston.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Napoleon Solo

Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

5.         Blackout Time (5, no change)

The first offer to ride Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up Blackout Time is likely to fall to Brian Hernandez Jr., the regular first-choice rider for trainer Kenny McPeek. Hernandez made his mark in a big way at Churchill Downs in 2024, winning the Derby aboard Mystik Dan and the Oaks on Thorpedo Anna.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blackout Time

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

6.         Litmus Test (6, no change)

Confirmed his status by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) Dec. 13. In doing so, he reinforced the standing of the horses that finished ahead of him in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in particular the position of Ted Noffey at the top of the tree. The fact that he’d previously beaten last week’s Remsen (G2) third Balboa provides further clarity to the pecking order. His Los Alamitos jockey, Juan Hernandez, has yet to place in a Classic.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

Litmus Test breaks maiden at Del Mar. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

7.         Further Ado (7, no change)

Five-time Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr. has been Further Ado’s jockey at his last two starts. With 23 Breeders’ Cup successes, he is rapidly closing in on Mike Smith’s record of 27. But with all his success, he’s been oddly absent at Derby time, having yet to finish in the top three, though it’s likely only a matter of time. He does have two Belmont victories.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

Further Ado wins the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         Incredibolt (8, no change)

Won the Street Sense (G3) in the hands of Jaime Torres. The leading apprentice on the NYRA circuit in 2023, he won the Preakness in 2024 aboard Seize the Grey but hasn’t ridden in the Kentucky Derby as yet.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

Incredibolot wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

9.         Boyd (9, no change)

Boyd won the Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs with Flavien Prat, but took out his maiden under Tyler Gaffalione. He was the closest of seconds in the 2024 Kentucky Derby aboard Sierra Leone and took out the 2019 Preakness on War of Will. He also has two Breeders’ Cup successes to his credit.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Boyd

Boyd works in preparation for the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

10.   Paladin (10, no change)

Paladin has won both his starts in the hands of Flavien Prat, who has also been the regular rider of Brant and a few other contenders. Whether he sticks with Paladin is yet to be seen.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

Paladin wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Chelsea Durand)

11.   Desert Gate (11, no change )

Multiple Grade 1 placegetter Desert Gate has been the regular mount of Juan Hernandez, who does a great deal of riding for the Bob Baffert stable. He has yet to feature in a Kentucky Derby.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Desert Gate

Desert Gate winning the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)

12.   Englishman (12, no change)

Jose Ortiz, who rode Englishman to victory in his only start to date, has had more luck in the Kentucky Derby than his brother Irad, finishing second aboard Good Magic in 2018 and third on Tacitus in 2019. The 2017 Eclipse Award winner has won a Preakness with Early Voting and a Belmont with Tapwrit.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Englishman

Englishman wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

13.   Universe (13, no change)

Universe has been handled by multiple riders in his career to date. If trainer Kenny McPeek’s leading rider Brian Hernandez Jr. chooses Blackout Time, Universe could well be guided by his Champagne Stakes jockey Christopher Elliott. He has yet to figure in a Kentucky Derby finish.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Universe

Universe wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

14.   Intrepido (14, no change)

Intrepido won the American Pharoah (G1) under Hector Berrios, whose most notable success to date came aboard Super Corredora in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) this year.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

15.   Satono Voyage (15, no change)

Satono Voyage won the Cattleya Sho, the first leg of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, in the hands of Keita Tosaki. He has been one of Japan’s leading riders for some time, and his victories include two editions of the Arima Kinen, a Dubai Sheema Classic aboard Danon Decile, and the Saudi Derby in 2021 aboard Pink Kamehameha.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Satono Voyage

Satono Voyage kicked off the Japan Road with a popular victory in the Cattleya S. (Photo by Tomoya Moriuchi/Horsephotos.com)

16.   Renegade (16, no change)

Renegade has been ridden to date by John Velazquez and Irad Ortiz, both of whom were covered in earlier entries.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

17.   Blacksmith (new entry)

Horses that are still maidens after three starts don’t often figure on lists like this, but his effort for second in the Los Alamitos Futurity, 1 1/4 lengths behind the well-proven Litmus Test, justifies his spot. He hit the line strongly at Los Alamitos, and his pedigree (he’s out of a Curlin mare) suggests he has good prospects of staying 1 1/4 miles. He was ridden by Kazushi Kimura, who initially made his mark in Canada before moving to California.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blacksmith

18.   Soldier N Diplomat (17, -1)

Soldier N Diplomat has been a regular mount of Tyler Gaffalione, whose background was covered in the notes on Boyd. In the Hopeful (G1), he was ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr., whose best effort in a Classic came when third in the 2018 Preakness aboard Tenfold.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Soldier N Diplomat

Soldier N Diplomat wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

19.   Buetane (18, -1)

Buetane’s regular riders have been the two jockeys mentioned earlier in this piece, Flavien Prat and Juan Hernandez.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Buetane

Buetane wins maiden race at Del Mar. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

20.   Cannoneer (19, -1)

Cannoneer won his maiden under Irad Ortiz but was ridden in his debut by Florent Geroux, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2021 on Mandaloun and was third on Gun Runner in 2016. Geroux also has eight Breeders’ Cup victories to his credit.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Cannoneer

Largest Gains: Blacksmith (new entry at 17)

Largest Fall: Soldier N Diplomat, Buetane, Cannoneer (all down 1).

New to Derby Power Rankings this week: Blacksmith (17).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings this week: Talkin (20th last week).

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Super Corredora (1 last week, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

2.         Explora (2, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

3.         Zany (3, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

5.         Percy’s Bar (5, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Percy's Bar

6.         Tommy Jo (6, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Tommy Jo

7.         Meaning (7, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

8.         Atropa (8, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Atropa

9.         Bottle of Rouge (9, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

10.   Consequent (10, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Consequent

11.   Just Singing (11, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Just Singing

12.   Mythical (12, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Mythical

13.   La Wally (13, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: La Wally

14.   Cashed (14, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Cashed

No changes to Oaks Power Rankings this week

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

• Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
• Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
• Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
• Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
• Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
• Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
• Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
• Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
• Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
• Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025