Kentucky Derby Power Rankings: Questions to be Answered for Derby Contenders [Dec. 30]

Dec 30, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Ted Noffey wins the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Week 13: We’ve reached the end of 2025, and the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders for 2026 are in their final days as juveniles.

The final week of 2025 featured no points-scoring races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and as a result, there are no changes to the Derby Power Rankings and just one to the Oaks rankings. You can read more about the state of the Derby road in the Kentucky Derby Roundup.

There were some useful maiden efforts as well, with horses like Secured Freedom, Class President, and Waymark among the most notable. More about them can be found in the Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch, but none impressed enough to earn a place on the Power Rankings list.

As a result, and with the end of the year in mind, this week’s Derby rankings will be taking stock of where the trail is at present, and look at major questions the horses on the list need to answer if they are to become a Derby winner.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings. Your next chance to bet on the Derby will be in the Pool 3 Future Wager Jan. 16-18, while the sole Oaks future wager will be available in mid-March. Have a great holiday season!

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey (1 last week, no change).

Major Question: Aside from the usual problems that champion two-year-olds have had in becoming Derby winners, his big question is concentration. He lost focus halfway down the stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), seemingly distracted by the crowd and the stands, before asserting himself in the final 100 yards. He’ll face a bigger crowd if he makes it to the Derby, and there will be little room for distraction over 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs.

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TwinSpires Horse Profile: Ted Noffey

2.         Brant (2, no change)

Major Question: Does he have the stamina? He had the lead on a track with an on-pace bias in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but couldn’t hold off Ted Noffey or Mr. A. P. He’s obviously a very smart colt, but this effort at 1 1/16 miles wasn’t a run that gave confidence about staying an extra 3/16 miles. Time will tell how strong his stamina is.

Juvenile contender Brant is a son and grandson of Breeders' Cup winners (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

3.         Napoleon Solo (3, no change)

Major Question: How strong is the form from the Champagne (G1) that he won so easily? The son of Liam’s Map looked like a world-beater with his all-the-way victory at Aqueduct, but of his eight opponents, only fifth-placed Stradale has won since, and that was over six furlongs. The best advertisement for his form has come from third placegetter Universe, who has been placed in the Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) since then, but there’s still some suspicion it’s not the best form in the land.

Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Napoleon Solo

4.         Blackout Time (4, no change)

Major Question: Can he make up nearly three lengths on Ted Noffey? The son of Not This Time gave Ted Noffey a good fight in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), but was clearly outpointed by 2 3/4 lengths in the run to the line. The form from the race has proved strong, but Blackout Time will need to improve as the distances increase to be a Derby winner.

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blackout Time

5.         Litmus Test (5, no change)

Major Question: Was his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory a sign of improvement? Litmus Test spent much of the season just behind the top juveniles – fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), third in the Breeders’ Futurity, and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – before winning at Los Alamitos. Trainer Bob Baffert thought he’d put up his best performance at Los Alamitos, but he faced none of the horses that previously beat him and arguably did no more than would have been expected. His next couple of runs will show whether he's improving.

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

6.         Further Ado (6, no change)

Major Question: Was his maiden victory too good to be true? Further Ado stunned racegoers when winning his maiden at Keeneland by 20 lengths, seemingly relishing a step up to 1 1/16 miles. But though he showed admirable fight and class when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) against better horses, it didn’t have the “wow” factor of his maiden win. He’s clearly talented, but still has more to prove.

Further Ado wins the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

7.         Incredibolt (7, no change)

Major Question: How strong was his Street Sense (G3) victory? There was a lot to like about the way Incredibolt rounded up his opponents in the Street Sense, but there is some doubt about the quality of the field. However, the way he disposed of them showed a great deal of potential, and his next outing will be watched with interest.

Incredibolt wins the Street Sense at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

8.         Boyd (8, no change)

Major Question: Is he a sprinter or a route horse? Boyd has been flashy and dominant in his maiden victory and in the Ed Brown S. at Churchill Downs. But both were over six furlongs, and it’s unclear if he will shine over longer distances. He’s another leading juvenile for Bob Baffert, and there will be plenty of anticipation when he stretches out over a longer trip.

Boyd works in preparation for the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Boyd

9.         Paladin (9, no change)

Major Question: Can he break the Remsen (G2) curse? Paladin looked like a colt of some promise and stamina when grinding out victory in the Remsen in early December. However, no Remsen victor has gone on to take the Kentucky Derby since Thunder Gulch in 1994 – though several went on to win other major races, such as Dornoch, Mo Donegal, Catholic Boy, and Honor Code. It will be interesting to watch Paladin’s progress in 2026.

Paladin wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Angelo Lieto)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

10.   Desert Gate (10, no change)

Major Question: How much has injury damaged his preparation? Desert Gate was one of the best juveniles in California, placing in both the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah (G1). But injury forced him out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and though it was said to be minor at the time, he hasn’t raced since. He is on the worktab at Santa Anita presently, however, having put up a bullet five furlongs on Dec. 28, so there is decent hope that he can factor on the Derby trail.

Desert Gate winning the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Desert Gate

11.   Englishman (11, no change)

Major Question: Is he more than an impressive maiden winner? Englishman was on many people’s lips as a Derby contender after a devastating debut victory at Churchill Downs in September. However, he had a minor setback after his debut and hasn’t appeared on the worktab for two months. He is a colt many people want to see again, but it’s unclear when that might be, and if the Derby is still a possibility.

Englishman wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Englishman

12.   Universe (12, no change)

Major Question: Can he make up ground on the horses that have been beating him? Universe has been admirably consistent, running places in Graded stakes at each of his last three starts – the Champagne, Street Sense, and Kentucky Jockey Club. But in none of these has he really ever looked like winning. He’ll need to develop and improve as the distances increase to become a genuine Derby contender.

Universe wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Universe

13.   Intrepido (13, no change)

Major Question: Was his poor Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort a one-off? Intrepido had been one of the best juveniles in California prior to the Breeders’ Cup, finishing fourth to Brant on debut and beating Plutarch in his maiden before outfinishing Desert Gate in the American Pharoah. On that form, he should have been somewhere near the top finishers in the Juvenile, but instead, he was more than eight lengths behind the first four. It’s most likely he simply had a bad day – the formline through Brant and Desert Gate suggests he’s better than that. But he won’t want another run like this on the Derby trail.

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

14.   Satono Voyage (14, no change)

Major Question: Is he in the same class as Forever Young? Satono Voyage is unbeaten on dirt in Japan and had plenty in hand when winning the Cattleya Sho S., the first race on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. Like Forever Young, he looks set to head to the Middle East for the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2). Forever Young remains the standard-bearer for Japanese dirt horses and was just two noses away from becoming that country’s first Kentucky Derby winner in 2024. Satono Voyage is exciting, but he’s got a bit to do yet to show he’s of the Forever Young caliber.

Satono Voyage kicked off the Japan Road with a popular victory in the Cattleya S. (Photo by Tomoya Moriuchi/Horsephotos.com)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Satono Voyage

15.   Renegade (15, no change)

Major Question: Can he turn around the form with Paladin? Renegade and Paladin have been the first two past the post in their two races. In the first, Renegade got home in front but was disqualified for interfering with Paladin. In the second, the Remsen, Paladin was clearly on top. Renegade still ran very well, however, and a reversal of the results is not out of the question.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

16.   Express Kid (16, no change)

Major Question: Was the Remington Springboard Mile a race of genuine Derby quality? Express Kid caused a major shock when winning the Springboard Mile S., but there was nothing lucky about his effort as he clearly outpointed his rivals from the front. What is doubtful is how good the field was behind him. We will need to see more of Express Kid to be confident he wasn’t just beating up horses that aren’t up to Derby class.

Express Kid outran his 34-1 odds in the Springboard Mile (Photo by Dustin Orona Photography/Remington Park)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Express Kid

17.   Blacksmith (17, no change)

Major Question: When will he break his maiden? Blacksmith put up a highly encouraging performance in the Los Alamitos Futurity, making up good ground on Litmus Test in the final 100 yards to take second place. However, in three starts to date, he still hasn’t scored a victory. It surely won’t be long before he does so, but will it be in a Derby Road race or will he head back to maiden company first?

Blacksmith works at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blacksmith

18.   Soldier N Diplomat (18, no change)

Major Question: Will his pedigree let him stay 1 1/4 miles? Soldier N Diplomat has put up some decent efforts to date, winning a maiden and an allowance and finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club after fighting Further Ado down much of the Churchill Downs stretch. So far, he’s handled trips around a mile, but his sire, Army Mule, is more known as a speed sire, and he will have to outrun his pedigree to be competitive over the Derby trip.

Soldier N Diplomat wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Soldier N Diplomat

19.   Golden Tempo (19, no change)

Major Question: Was his maiden win a sign of real Derby class? Golden Tempo couldn’t keep up with his opponents in the early stages of his debut over six furlongs at Fair Grounds, but rounded them up quickly in the middle stages and powered away at the finish, suggesting that he would excel at longer distances. It’s a long way from a maiden to the Derby, but the manner of his debut suggests he might be one that could do it.

20.   Chip Honcho (20, no change)

Major Question: How strong was his Gun Runner S. victory? Chip Honcho deserved marks for bravery and stamina for winning the Gun Runner after Crown the Buckeye looked to have the race won early in the stretch. But did he win it, or did the other simply run out of stamina? The final fractions suggest he needs to show a bit more to prove he’s a genuine Derby contender.

Chip Honcho wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chip Honcho 

No changes in Kentucky Derby Power Rankings this week.

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Super Corredora (1 last week, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

2.         Explora (2, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

3.         Zany (3, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

5.         Percy’s Bar (5, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Percy's Bar

6.         Tommy Jo (6, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Tommy Jo

7.         Meaning (7, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

8.         Atropa (8, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Atropa

9.         Bottle of Rouge (9, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

10.      Consequent (10, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Consequent

11.      Just Singing (11, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Just Singing

12.      Mythical (12, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Mythical

13.      Hit Parade (13, no change)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Hit Parade

14.      Counting Stars (new entry)

Earned her place on the rankings by dominating the Year’s End S. at Oaklawn Park Dec. 27. She’d earlier won the Overnight S. at Oaklawn Park two weeks prior, but that was at six furlongs, and it was good to see her handle the step up to a mile in the Year’s End. Looks like one to keep an eye on in the Oaks prep races.

Largest Gains: Counting Stars (new entry at 14).

Largest Fall: La Wally (removed from list).

New to Derby Power Rankings this week: Counting Stars (14).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings this week: La Wally (14th last week).

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

Week 12 — Dec 23, 2025
Week 11 — Dec. 16, 2025
Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025