Study Guide: 2026 Southwest Stakes

Feb 01, 2026 J. Keeler Johnson/TwinSpires.com

Strategic Risk wins the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media/Kara West)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby returns to Oaklawn Park on Friday for the $1 million Southwest (G3), a 1 1/16-mile qualifier worth 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers.

With 14 horses in the entries, the Southwest is shaping up as an ultra-competitive race. Let’s take a horse-by-horse tour through the field:

Reclamation

Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Showdown Kings
Breeder: Scarteen Stud
Trainer: Christopher Davis
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Top Speed Rating: (86) when winning an Oaklawn Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $65,000

Sire: Caracaro
Dam: Showed Up Late
Color: Bay

Reclamation recently led all the way to win a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn, but the 86 Brisnet Speed rating he received looks light against the Southwest field.

D’code

Start(s): 1
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Tom R. Durant
Breeder: Tom Durant
Trainer: H. Ray Ashford Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez

Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning an Oaklawn Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $60,000

Sire: Speightstown
Dam: Dos Vinos
Color: Gray/roan

D’code was tons the best in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn, leading all the way to trounce 10 rivals by 8 1/4 lengths. He earned a strong 98 Brisnet Speed rating and is a logical win contender even while stepping up in class and distance for the Southwest.

D'CODE wins easy in R4 at Oaklawn Park, giving @cristiantorr64 another win on today's card! 🏇

Ray Ashford Jr. trains.

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/LEeugpIDoE

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) December 14, 2025

Buetane

Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Breeder: Merriebelle Stable
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joel Rosario

Top Speed Rating: (98) when finishing second in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita.
Total Earnings: $148,000

Sire: Tiz the Law
Dam: Taboo
Color: Chestnut

Runner-up in the 2025 Hopeful (G1) to champion and erstwhile Kentucky Derby favorite Ted Noffey, Buetane recently returned from a long break to finish second in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2). He’s unproven racing 1 1/16 miles, but his strong Brisnet Speed ratings suggest he’s a viable win contender at Oaklawn.

Rancho Santa Fe

Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Gary and Mary West Stables
Breeder: Gary and Mary West Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Top Speed Rating: (86) when winning a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland.
Total Earnings: $139,957

Sire: Tapit
Dam: Family Tree
Color: Chestnut

Rancho Santa Fe won his first two starts, but in his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut, he finished fifth in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S. behind four rivals who are back for the Southwest. He’ll need improvement to turn the tables.

Litmus Test

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Breeder: Machmer Hall
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Top Speed Rating: (102) when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $350,188

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Study Hard
Color: Bay

Litmus Test performed admirably against tough competition on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last year. He earned a 102 Brisnet Speed rating (the highest in the Southwest field) when finishing a close fourth to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and he ended the season with a triumph in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He has every chance to shine again in the Southwest.

Circle Tap

Start(s): 5
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Willis Horton Racing
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (84) when finishing fourth in a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $112,546

Sire: Twirling Candy
Dam: Rattataptap
Color: Bay

Circle Tap recently overcame traffic trouble to rally and win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn by three lengths. This was a big step forward from his previous four starts sprinting, so Circle Tap is progressing in the right direction and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Liberty National

Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Brookdale Racing, Fern Circle Stables, and Magdalena Racing
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $90,675

Sire: Maxfield
Dam: Virtuoso
Color: Dark bay/brown

A late rally carried Liberty National to second place in the Gun Runner S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But a decelerating pace helped him gain ground, and Liberty National may not receive as favorable a setup in the Southwest.

Spirit of Royal

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Gervais Racing
Breeder: Papason Stables
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Top Speed Rating: (82) when winning an Oaklawn Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $96,164

Sire: Global Campaign
Dam: Spirit Lets Hearit
Color: Bay

After failing to win in five starts sprinting, Spirit of Royal broke through when stretching out for a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn, closing from far back to win by 1 1/2 lengths. However, he’ll need to improve upon his career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating to beat tougher foes in the Southwest.

Strategic Risk

Start(s): 6
Wins: 3
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: John C. Oxley
Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Javier Castellano

Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the In Reality division of the Florida Sire S. at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $392,300

Sire: Noble Bird
Dam: Strategize
Color: Bay

Strategic Risk has improved by leaps and bounds in recent starts. Last time out, he tracked a slow pace in Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones S. before finishing fast to win by 4 1/2 lengths. He’ll likely face a tougher pace scenario in the Southwest, but Strategic Risk’s strong finishing power shouldn’t be overlooked.

STRATEGIC RISK was in a stalking position throughout before pouncing to a dominant victory in the Smarty Jones S. for the hot @markecasse barn! 🔥@jjcjockey had the mount.

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/nTVPE0WXsT

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 3, 2026

Bricklin

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Imagine Racing
Breeder: Haymarket Farm
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Jaime Torres

Top Speed Rating: (92) when winning a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $91,568

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Majestic Vixen
Color: Dark bay/brown

Bricklin faltered in his first start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing a distant sixth in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. But he rebounded with a gate-to-wire win in a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn, for which he earned a respectable 92 Brisnet Speed rating. A similar performance on Saturday could put Bricklin in the hunt for a top-five finish.

Silent Tactic

Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: John C. Oxley
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Cristian Torres

Top Speed Rating: (83) when finishing second in the Grey (G3) at Woodbine.
Total Earnings: $99,422

Sire: Tacitus
Dam: Magical Sign
Color: Bay

Silent Tactic was compromised by the slow early/fast late pace in the Smarty Jones, but he nevertheless rallied from eighth place to finish second behind Strategic Risk. A better pace setup in the Southwest could unlock another strong finish from Silent Tactic.

Baytown Dreamer

Start(s): 9
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 3

Owner: Baytown Partnerships
Breeder: Brookstone Farm, Lee Mauberret, and James Blazek
Trainer: Paul McEntee
Jockey: Orlando Bocachica

Top Speed Rating: (85) when finishing fourth in the Tremont S. at Saratoga.
Total Earnings: $223,563

Sire: Mendelssohn
Dam: Colerful Bride
Color: Chestnut

With nine starts under his belt, Baytown Dreamer is the most experienced horse in the Southwest field. He finished a solid third in the Smarty Jones last time out, but will need a step forward to turn the tables on Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic.

Soldier N Diplomat

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: St. Elias Stable
Breeder: Machmer Hall
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning a Churchill Downs $100,000 allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $185,634

Sire: Army Mule
Dam: Diplomatic Miss
Color: Dark bay/brown

Soldier N Diplomat made his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. After tracking the pace in second place, he took over the lead, only to falter late and finish third by 2 1/4 lengths. Soldier N Diplomat has talent and is progressing in the right direction, but winning the Southwest from post 13 could be a difficult assignment.

Sleepingonfreedom

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Dream Big Racing and Magdalena Racing
Breeder: Jay Goodwin, Danny Guidry, and Michael Hore
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel

Top Speed Rating: (86) on two occasions, including when winning a $50,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $127,935

Sire: Independence Hall
Dam: Siesta
Color: Dark bay/brown

Sleepingonfreedom won two of his first three starts before finishing a distant fourth behind Strategic Risk, Silent Tactic, and Baytown Dreamer in the Smarty Jones. Turning the tables from post 14 could be a tricky task.