Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: A week of change

Mar 03, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Commandment wins the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Week 22: As anticipated, plenty happened to change up the Power Rankings in the past week.

Several newcomers appeared in the Derby Power Rankings, while one horse in the lower reaches charged a long way up the board. Along the way, some names that have been on the list from the start have dropped off.

One less anticipated change was the defection of a recent prep winner. Plutarch, winner of the Robert B. Lewis (G3), unfortunately, joined Ted Noffey and Mr. A. P. among Derby contenders forced off the trail through injury.

It’s a period of great flux, and with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and San Felipe (G2) this weekend, there will be more change to come – especially with the long-awaited return of Brant.

The Oaks rankings have seen relatively minor changes by comparison, but with no filly definitively stamping her authority, it has an open look about it as well. The only Oaks prep race this weekend is the Santa Ysabel (G3), which is likely to include Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Super Corredora.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, March 13-15, which also includes the only Oaks Future Wager.

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Nearly (1, no change)

Derby contenders are emerging everywhere, but there still haven’t been any more impressive victories on the Derby trail this year than Nearly’s Holy Bull (G3) victory. So until he races next (probably in the Florida Derby (G1), or until another horse steps up in a massive way, he retains top spot.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Nearly

2.         Commandment (16, +14)

Against a good field, and in a possibly less-favored lane on the rail, Commandment proved what we thought we saw in his Mucho Macho Man S. victory and more. He’s got the pedigree to stay, and sharp acceleration if necessary – all attributes of a genuine Derby contender.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

Commandment wins the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

3.         Paladin (2, -1)

Down a notch this week behind Commandment, mainly due to concerns he may not have the same turn of foot as the pair above him. However, he’s still clearly one of the top Derby contenders and looks more certain than most to relish 1 1/4 miles. Expected to have his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

Paladin wins the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

4.         Renegade (3, -1)

Nominated for the Tampa Bay Derby next weekend, but may be saved for the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

5.         Chief Wallabee (new entry)

If Commandment deserves to be ranked high among the Derby contenders, then so does the horse that pushed him so close in the Fountain of Youth (G2) despite having raced just once previously after covering more ground. Chief Wallabee will probably need a strong effort at his next start – possibly the Florida Derby – to earn a Derby start, but he looks to have the talent to deserve a spot.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chief Wallabee

Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

6.         Silent Tactic (8, +2)

It may seem strange to put Silent Tactic above Class President, the horse that beat him in the Rebel (G2), and he definitely had his chance to win at Oaklawn Park. But it’s worth noting he carried five pounds more than Class President and was beaten a nose; many handicappers would suggest five pounds is worth more distance than a nose. Regardless, it was a run that confirmed he is a serious Derby contender.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

7.         Class President (new entry)

Solitude Dude’s fighting third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth at a distance probably beyond his best suggested Class President, beaten into second by Solitude Dude at his previous start, could compete well in the Rebel at Oaklawn. He did that and more, passing the well-performed Litmus Test at the top of the stretch and then showing a lot of courage to nose out Silent Tactic.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Class President

Class President (outside) fights back to nip Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2) (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         Brant (4, -4)

Looking like he’s going to resume in the San Felipe (G2) on Saturday. If he can run to his two-year-old form, he’ll be a big chance, but that’s a big if; so far this year, some of the Grade 1-quality juveniles racing for the first time after a long break, such as Blackout Time and Napoleon Solo last weekend, have been well short of the mark. Brant keeps his high ranking due to his early talent.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

Brant shown winning last summer's Del Mar Futurity (G1) (Photo by Benoit Photo)

9.         Further Ado (7, -2)

Not seen since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in late November, Further Ado is due to make his long-awaited return to racing in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend. It looks set to attract a good field, so it will be informative about his Kentucky Derby prospects.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado 

Further Ado wins the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

10.   Chip Honcho (9, -1)

With horses moving around him in the rankings, Chip Honcho continues to be rewarded in the rankings for his effort to beat all but Paladin in the Risen Star (G2). Will be a leading chance in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 21.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chip Honcho

Chip Honcho wins the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

11.   Litmus Test (6, -5)

May have needed the run in the Rebel last weekend. He showed good early pace to lead, but had little left at the end when challenged by Class President and Silent Tactic. With 34 Derby qualifying points, he has good prospects of making the final field, and he will probably improve, but he’ll need to in order to be a Derby-winning chance.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

12.   Iron Honor (new entry)

Showed the impression he gave when winning his maiden wasn’t unwarranted when winning the Gotham (G3). However, he arguably took longer than expected to put away Crown the Buckeye, who had been beaten more quickly in his two Fair Grounds efforts. Has history against him if he wants to be a Derby winner – the last Gotham contestant to do that was Secretariat.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Iron Honor

Iron Honor wins the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Joe Labozzetta)

13.   Talk to Me Jimmy (11, -2)

On Brisnet Speed Ratings, his Withers S. victory was just as good as Iron Honor’s Gotham triumph. The two are set to meet in the Wood Memorial on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

Talk to Me Jimmy wins the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

14.   Intrepido (13, -1)

Looks set to miss the San Felipe and instead target the Santa Anita Derby (G1). On his best form, he can’t be ignored in the Derby picture.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

15.   Golden Tempo (14, -1)

Will be a good chance in the Louisiana Derby, but he either needs a suicidal pace or to find some more early speed to be in the picture to win the Kentucky Derby.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo 

Golden Tempo wins the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

16.   So Happy (15, -1)

Saturday’s San Felipe will be a good chance to see if he can confirm that he’s one of the leading three-year-olds in California. Has some stamina doubts on pedigree, but his racing style suggests he’ll handle a trip.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: So Happy

So Happy wins the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

17.   Reagan’s Honor (no change)

One of the best Derby contenders yet to take on stakes company. Adds to what is likely to be a hot line-up for the Blue Grass on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Reagan's Honor

18.   Cherokee Nation (new entry)

Dominant in a maiden victory at Santa Anita Feb. 27, recording a Brisnet speed rating to match Commandment’s Fountain of Youth. He’s been hard to assess – his narrow maiden loss to subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Mr. A. P. suggested he was high-class, but his three starts after that were middling efforts. If his win on Saturday is a sign he’s finally figured out racing, he’s definitely in the Derby picture.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Cherokee Nation

19.   Al Haram (18, -1)

The biggest barrier to his participation in the Kentucky Derby may be the political situation in the Middle East. The unbeaten Saudi Derby (G3) winner probably needs to win the UAE Derby (G2) to earn a slot, but there are questions about whether it will be run or how easy it will be to get horses out of the region to Kentucky if the race does go ahead.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Al Haram

Al Haram rallies to win the Saudi Derby (Photo by Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia / Ali AlZenaidi)

20.   Canaletto (re-entry)

Returns to the list partly on promise, partly because many others fell by the wayside at the weekend. His maiden triumph Jan. 25 has worked out OK; second-placed Lost Money flopped badly in the Fountain of Youth, but third-placed Autobahn won his maiden next start. Likely to get his chance in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Canaletto

Canaletto wins at Santa Anita. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Ryan Thompson)

Largest gain: Commandment (up 14).

Largest fall: Litmus Test (down 5).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Chief Wallabee (5), Class President (7), Iron Honor (12), Cherokee Nation (18).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Canaletto (20).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Napoleon Solo (5th last week), Blackout Time (10th last week), Plutarch (12th last week), Bravaro (19th last week), Boyd (20th last week).

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Zany (1, NC)

An easy winner of the Demoiselle (G2) and the Suncoast S., Zany has a number of options for her next start, the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland April 4 being one of them.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

2.         Explora (3, +1)

Without the crazy pace of the Las Virgenes (G3), Explora had enough to hold out Counting Stars to win the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park. She’s yet to put up an overwhelming run this term, but her honesty cannot be faulted. It’s hard to imagine her putting in a bad performance come Kentucky Oaks time.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

3.         Meaning (2, -1)

The Las Virgenes winner wasn’t nominated for Sunday’s Santa Ysabel. She still looks to be one of the leading fillies in the country and will most likely aim to secure her Kentucky Oaks spot in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, NC)

The unbeaten filly is likely to have her final prep in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on March 21.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

5.         Super Corredora (5, NC)

Ran out of puff after a fast pace in the Las Virgenes. She took a couple of runs to hit her peak as a juvenile, so an improved effort is on the cards in the Santa Ysabel.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

6.       She Be Smooth (new entry)

Could she be the filly to emerge from a crowded and confused collection of Oaks contenders? There was certainly a great deal to like about her last-to-first Davona Dale (G2) victory, after just one previous start. The field she beat wasn’t the strongest – especially with On Time Girl running below par – but she’s headed in the right direction.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: She Be Smooth

7.         Counting Stars (new entry)

Proved her run in the Martha Washington S. was too bad to be true, pushing Explora very hard in the Honeybee. She’ll need another good run to earn a start in the Oaks, and the Martha Washington was the second time in six starts she threw in a clunker, but if she makes it to Churchill Downs at her best on the First Friday in May, she’s not without a chance.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Counting Stars

8.         Dazzling Dame (6, -2)

A dominant winner of the Busher S. at Aqueduct, Dazzling Dame is nominated for the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs on March 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Dazzling Dame

9.         Bottle of Rouge (7, -2)

The Sunland Park Oaks winner has numerous options available to her for her next start, with the Fantasy (G2) or the Santa Anita Oaks looking the most likely.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

10.   Paradise (new entry)

Put together a dominant display to win the Busher at Aqueduct over the weekend. It’s hard to know what to make of the field she beat, but in a field without many outstanding candidates, she’s in the Oaks picture.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paradise

11.   Luv Your Neighbor (9, -2)

Has kept on coming up one short in Oaks prep races, but can’t be ruled out as a contender. Should be competitive wherever she heads next.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

12.   Life of Joy (11, -1)

Put up decent performances without threatening the winner in both the Forward Gal (G3) and the Suncoast. Stays on the list due to others falling off, but needs to improve to be a winning Oaks chance.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

13.   Sticker Shock (new entry)

Did well to hold off Scot’s Law in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Oaklawn Park Feb. 26 despite running greenly in the stretch. Looks talented and will be a good chance in the Fantasy on March 27.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Sticker Shock

14.   Labwah (12, -2)

Impressed in the UAE Oaks (G3), but is she going to join the Kentucky Oaks trail? She’s being talked about as a potential UAE Derby runner, but the political situation may also put a damper on any chance of her flying to Kentucky.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Labwah

Largest gain: Explora (up 1).

Largest fall: Dazzling Dame, Bottle of Rouge, Luv Your Neighbor, Labwah (all down 2).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: She Be Smooth (6), Counting Stars (7), Paradise (10), Sticker Shock (13).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Search Party (14th last week).