Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: A Week of Drama

Feb 03, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Week 18: Well, that was some week on the Derby and Oaks trail.

In an open year, the only constant had been that Ted Noffey was the clear front-runner in the Derby picture. But the curse of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – only two of the 42 winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – struck again, as he suffered bone bruising that has pushed him out of the Triple Crown races. The pecking order without him is highly debatable.

Ted Noffey’s withdrawal wasn’t the only drama in the week. We were scheduled to have three Derby preps and two Oaks preps this weekend, but the weather-related cancellations meant we ended up with only one for each. The well-regarded prospects like Litmus Test, Strategic Risk, Buetane, D’code, Hit Parade, and Counting Stars will have to wait another week to show their credentials.

Fortunately, the preps we did get were illuminating – especially the Holy Bull (G3) for the boys. It’s resulted in the biggest catapult upwards within the rankings since they started.

There’s also been some adjustment to the Oaks Power Rankings, and not just related to the sole prep, the Forward Gal (G3). Three of the fillies on the Oaks rankings list last week – Percy’s Bar, Tommy Jo, and Consequent – have been removed as none have recorded a published work since at least early January. If we receive positive news about them, they may return; however, as uncertainty persists, they’re being taken off.

The weather interruptions mean we are scheduled for a bumper week of prep races – four for the Derby and three for the Oaks – so expect some big changes next week.

This week’s rankings will also take a look at the auction purchase prices of the rankings inductees.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings – and to back your own judgment when Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager arrives February 13-15.

---

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Nearly (17, +16)

Purchase Price: $350,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

It may seem a stretch to move Nearly up 16 places into the top position, but his Holy Bull victory was arguably the most impressive in any Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby race not involving Ted Noffey. He could easily have faded after his speed duel with Cannoneer, but instead, he put his rivals away with disdain. Given his first two damsires are Mineshaft and Summer Squall, he has the potential to stay 1 1/4 miles.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Nearly

2.         Brant (2, no change)

Purchase Price: $200,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $3 million, OBS March 2-Year-Old Sale.

Stays at number two despite Ted Noffey’s withdrawal due to doubts about his stamina and his relatively late return to the worktab. It’s not clear when he will race next; he may be overtaken by others on this list until plans are clearer.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Brant

3.         Napoleon Solo (3, no change)

Purchase Price: $40,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Has had three works at Palm Meadows since his return to training and is showing plenty of speed. Stamina is a major doubt for him, as is the form around his Champagne (G1) victory, but there’s still plenty to like. Likely to resume in either the Gotham S. at Aqueduct Feb. 28, the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 28, or the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) March 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Napoleon Solo

4.         Litmus Test (5, +1)

Purchase Price: $875,000, Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August Yearling Sale.

Missed his Southwest (G3) appointment due to the weather but had a handy work at Santa Anita instead. Reportedly looking good in training, but is scheduled to stay in Southern California and await a March prep.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

5.         Further Ado (6, +1)

Purchase Price: $275,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $550,000, OBS April 2-Year-Old Sale.

Has worked twice at Payson Park since Jan. 25, both in nice fashion. Looks to be on target for a return to the Derby trail, possibly in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

6.         Blackout Time (4, -2)

Purchase Price: $230,000, Keeneland January Sale (Short Yearling); $210,000, Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale.

Back on the worktab at Fair Grounds after an enforced break due to being ruled out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile through injury. May still be a force on the Derby trail, but will be in danger of slipping on the rankings while we wait to see where he’s headed.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Blackout Time

7.         Boyd (8, +1)

Purchase Price: $82,000, Fasig-Tipton November Sale (Weanling); $280,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $1.05 million, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale.

Continues to work well at Santa Anita. The big question remains: is he a Derby contender, or more likely to stick to shorter distances?

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Boyd

8.         Paladin (9, +1)

Purchase Price: $1.9 million, Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August Yearling Sale.

Remains uppermost in the minds of many Derby assessors, not least because he looks more likely to enjoy 1 1/4 miles than most of the leading contenders. Having been kept up to his work at Payson Park for more than a month, his return to racing will be awaited with interest. Nominated for the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 7, but may be more likely to target the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

9.         Desert Gate (10, +1)

Purchase Price: $125,000, Keeneland November Sale (Weanling); $100,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $260,000, OBS March 2-Year-Old Sale.

Working solidly at Santa Anita. His planned venture to the Saudi Derby has been abandoned due to a very minor setback. Has drawn the inside gate for the Robert B. Lewis (G3) Feb. 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Desert Gate

10.   Strategic Risk (11, +1)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

Still set to take on several potential Derby starters in the rescheduled Southwest at Oaklawn Park Feb. 6. Did everything he needed to when winning the Smarty Jones, and another competitive effort will push him further up the rankings.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Strategic Risk

11.   Golden Tempo (12, +1)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

Breezed four furlongs in 49.60 seconds Jan. 30 at Fair Grounds in his first work since his rallying Lecomte (G3) victory Jan. 17. Should enjoy an increase in distance at his next start, most likely the Risen Star Feb. 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

12.   Intrepido (13, +1)

Purchase Price: $30,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $385,000, OBS April 2-Year-Old Sale.

Has put in plenty of work since his disappointing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fifth-place finish. His American Pharoah (G1) victory provided a better guide to his true ability; he is likely to contest the Robert B. Lewis on Saturday, which will give a good indication about his Derby prospects.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

13.   Satono Voyage (14, +1)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

The Cattleya Sho S. victor looks set to take on an international field in the Saudi Derby Feb. 14. With Jerome winner My World, Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun third-place finisher Best Green, and the speedy dual stakes winner Obliteration in the field, we should get a better idea of how his form stacks up.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Satono Voyage

14.   Renegade (15, +1)

Purchase Price: $975,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Working solidly at Palm Beach Downs in Florida since his Remsen second-place finish Dec. 6. Looks likely to contest the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 7.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

15.   So Happy (16, +1)

Purchase Price: $12,000, Keeneland November Sale (Weanling); $20,000, Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale; $150,000, OBS March 2-Year-Old Sale.

Went four furlongs in 48.80 seconds at Santa Anita Jan. 26, his first work since winning the San Vicente (G2) Jan. 10. Nominated for the Robert B. Lewis Feb. 7; will be a big chance if he runs, but he may also wait for another Derby prep.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: So Happy

16.   Commandment (18, +2)

Purchase Price: $500,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

The Mucho Macho Man S. winner Jan. 3 has worked twice at Payson Park since that victory. He is likely to have his next start in the Fountain of Youth Feb. 28 at Gulfstream Park.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

17.   Bravaro (new entry)

Purchase Price: Not sold at auction; twice failed to reach reserve.

Previously unbeaten in two Aqueduct starts against New York-bred horses, he proved he was up to taking on all-comers in the Holy Bull, being the only runner to make a race of it with Nearly in the final three furlongs, though he was a clear second-best. Set to run next in the Fountain of Youth.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bravaro

18.   Six Speed (19, +1)

Purchase Price: $50,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; 220,000 guineas (about $304,680), Tattersalls Craven Breeze Up 2-Year-Old Sale.

Impressively won the UAE 2,000 Guineas (G3) for his new American owners Jan. 23. Could potentially contest the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Stakes Feb. 20, but appears more likely to wait for the deciding race in the European/Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby series, the UAE Derby (G2) March 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Six Speed

19.   Canaletto (20, +1)

Purchase Price: $650,000, Fasig-Tipton February Mixed Sale (Short Yearling); $1 million, Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August Yearling Sale.

Put in a very good effort over a mile on debut in a Gulfstream Park maiden Jan. 25. The Derby could possibly come too soon for him; if he’s given his chance on the Derby trail, it seems the most likely next step would be the Tampa Bay Derby March 7, or possibly to seek more experience an allowance before putting it all on the line in a major prep with 100 points for the win.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Canaletto

20.   = Incredibolt (7, -13)

Purchase Price: $75,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Bitterly disappointing in the Holy Bull; it didn’t help that he raced close to the rail on a track which clearly favored horses running off the fence, but you still would have expected better than finishing last of six, 25 lengths from Nearly. His Street Sense (G3) victory in October indicated he’s a better horse than he showed on Saturday, but it wasn’t a good sign.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

= Solitude Dude (new entry)

Purchase Price: $85,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $300,000, OBS June Sale.

Stretched his unbeaten run to three with another decisive victory in the seven-furlong Swale S. at Gulfstream Park Jan. 31. Trainer Saffie Joseph has doubts about his likelihood of excelling at route races, but he could be given his chance over two turns in the Fountain of Youth Feb. 28.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Solitude Dude

Largest gain: Nearly (up 16).

Largest fall: Incredibolt (down 13).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Bravaro (17), Solitude Dude (=20).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Ted Noffey (1st last week), Express Kid (20th last week).

---

KENTUCKY OAKS POWER RANKINGS

1.         Super Corredora (1, no change)

Purchase Price: $400,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner has been working sharply since mid-December at Santa Anita. She is set to begin her racing path towards the Oaks in the rescheduled Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita Feb. 8.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Super Corredora

 

2.         Explora (2, no change)

Purchase Price: $22,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale; $350,000, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale.

Tops the Road to the Kentucky Oaks standings after her Santa Ynez S. victory in January. Holds a nomination to the Las Virgenes, but it’s unclear if she will start there or wait for another Oaks prep.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

 

3.         Zany (3, no change)

Purchase Price: $350,000, Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August Yearling Sale.

An outstanding winner of the Demoiselle (G2) in December, Zany is expected to resume her path to the Oaks in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher has thrown a slight spanner in the works by also nominating her to take on the boys in the Sam F. Davis on the same card as the Suncoast, but expect her to stick to her own gender.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

 

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, no change)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

The Golden Rod (G2) winner recorded five works at Fair Grounds in January, most recently a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.20 on Jan. 30. Expect her to resume in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) at the Louisiana track Feb. 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

 

5.         Dazzling Dame (6, +1)

Purchase Price: $65,000, OBS Winter Mixed Sale (Yearling); $45,000, OBS March 2-Year-Old Sale.

The Maryland-bred resumed work at the Fair Hill Training Center in the state of her birth on Jan. 23, her first breeze since winning the Busanda S. at Aqueduct on Jan. 3. Trainer Brittany Russell indicated after the Busanda that Dazzling Dame’s next start is likely to be either the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs March 14 or maybe even the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct April 4.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Dazzling Dame

 

6.         Meaning (8, +2)

Purchase Price: $440,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

By Gun Runner out of an Into Mischief mare, the BC Juvenile fourth-place finisher, she could be one to improve at three into a genuine Oaks contender. Has been working solidly since mid-December and is nominated for the Las Virgenes this weekend.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

 

7.         Taken by the Wind (9, +2)

Purchase Price: $70,000, Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale; $20,000, Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale.

Could this unbeaten Rock Your World filly be Kenny McPeek’s successor to Thorpedo Anna? The Silverbulletday S. winner could potentially get a chance to show her chops next in another Fair Grounds race named after a Kentucky Oaks winner, the Rachel Alexandra, Feb. 14.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Taken by the Wind

 

8.         On Time Girl (re-entry)

Purchase Price: Homebred ($375,000 RNA Keeneland September Yearling Sale).

A winner of three from four up to 6 1/2 furlongs prior to the weekend, On Time Girl looked like potentially more than just a sprinter with her Forward Gal victory Jan. 31, having to overcome traffic problems to accelerate away over seven furlongs. Stamina could still be a question mark over her Oaks prospects, but she has the potential to be a significant player if she can stretch out to two turns.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: On Time Girl

 

9.         Bottle of Rouge (10, +1)

Purchase Price: $60,000, Keeneland November Sale (Weanling); $100,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Last seen finishing sixth in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she has put in a fair bit of work in the meantime at Santa Anita. Holds a nomination for the Las Virgenes.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

 

10.   Atropa (12, +2)

Purchase Price: $450,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

A little disappointing in the Silverbulletday, Atropa nonetheless has shown plenty of potential, especially off a strong pace. Most likely to return in the Rachel Alexandra.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Atropa

 

11.   Just Singing (13, +2)

Purchase Price: $300,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Third to Bella Ballerina in the Golden Rod, Just Singing has been in work at Palm Meadows since the beginning of January. The Justify filly could get her chance to enhance her reputation against Zany in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs this weekend.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Just Singing

 

12.   Powered by Family (re-entry)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

Looked like a potential Oaks prospect when winning an off-the-turf maiden at Fair Grounds Jan. 10. Nominated for the Rachel Alexandra back at Fair Grounds Feb. 14, though it’s possible she heads in a different direction.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Powered by Family

 

13.   Hit Parade (re-entry)

Purchase Price: Homebred.

Scored a gritty victory in the Untapable S. Dec. 20 over subsequent Silverbulletday runner-up Luv Your Neighbor. Has continued to train at Fair Grounds since then; she is likely to contest either the Suncoast Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs or the Rachel Alexandra back at Fair Grounds a week later.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Hit Parade

 

14.   Luv Your Neighbor (new entry)

Purchase Price: $350,000, Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

The Ontario-bred has been very competitive in the Oaks preps at Fair Grounds, finishing a head behind Hit Parade in the Untapable and a neck behind Taken by the Wind in the Silverbulletday. Whether a stretch out to 1 1/8 miles would make her more competitive is yet to be seen, but she’s sixth in order of entry for the Oaks and should be taken seriously.

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

 

Largest gain: Atropa, Just Singing (both up 2).

Largest fall: Percy’s Bar (removed from rankings).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Luv Your Neighbor (14).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: On Time Girl (8), Powered by Family (12), Hit Parade (13).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Percy’s Bar (5th last week), Tommy Jo (7th last week), Consequent (11th last week).

No changes to Oaks Power Rankings this week.

---

Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

Week 17 — Jan. 27, 2026
Week 16 — Jan. 20, 2026
Week 15 — Jan. 13, 2026
Week 14 — Jan. 6, 2026
Week 13 — Dec. 30, 2025
Week 12 — Dec 23, 2025
Week 11 — Dec. 16, 2025
Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025