Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Chance to play early on the Oaks

Mar 11, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Zany wins the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

Action is a little limited on the prep race front this weekend. But it’s a great week for players.

This weekend sees Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. By now, most of the likely runners are exposed, which is reflected in the relatively long 12-1 odds for the “all other three-year-olds” option. Not surprisingly, only one horse on this week’s Derby Power Rankings is not listed among the 39 individual horse options.

What makes this Future Wager most interesting is that it’s your only chance to have an advance bet on the Kentucky Oaks. This year’s Oaks contenders haven’t exactly made the pecking order clear, and I wouldn’t rule out a relatively unexposed filly making her mark in the final preps and then the Oaks itself. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the final odds turn out to be significantly different in some cases from the morning-line odds.

Given this, today’s rankings focus more on the Oaks contenders than those for the Derby.

This weekend’s prep races are both at Colonial Downs in Virginia, with 50 points available for the winners of each. The Virginia Oaks may end up being more relevant for May than the Virginia Derby; though there are only six horses in the Oaks, it does include three Oaks prep winners – Bottle of Rouge, Dazzling Dame, and Hit Parade.

The Virginia Derby looks more open; none of the entries is on the Derby Power Rankings list, and only Incredibolt has won a Derby prep, and he spoiled his name badly in the Holy Bull (G3) last time out. It will be interesting to see if any of the runners can put forward a Power Rankings slot-worthy performance.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings and to back your own judgment in the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Future Wagers this weekend.

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Zany (1, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 3-1

Though she hasn’t taken on Grade 1 company, it’s no surprise Zany has been made morning-line favorite for the Oaks. Her Demoiselle (G2) and Suncoast S. victories have arguably been more impressive than any other fillies on the Oaks trail.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Zany

2.         Explora (2, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

A most admirable filly who never runs a bad race. But does she have that extra level of class that Oaks winners tend to need? Still, it would surprise this writer if the Future Wager odds don’t end up lower than the 10-1 morning-line quote.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Explora

Expora wins the Santa Ynez at Santa Anita.(Photo by Benoit Photo)

3.         Meaning (3, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Continues to work towards the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). Her Las Virgenes S. victory still looks like a decent race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Meaning

Meaning wins the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita (Photo by Benoit Photo)

4.         Bella Ballerina (4, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

Unbeaten and well fancied for the Oaks – not surprising considering her record and her breeding. But it would have been nicer to see her dominate her opponents in her two graded stakes efforts, which she hasn’t done. Maybe we will learn more in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on March 21.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Bella Ballerina

Bella Ballerina wins the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

5.         She Be Smooth (6, +1)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Her Davona Dale (G2) win was up there with the best on the Oaks prep trail for this crop. The biggest question will be whether she has the necessary early speed to be competitive on the big day.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: She Be Smooth

She Be Smooth wins the Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

6.         Counting Stars (7, +1)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Has the tendency to throw in a bad race, but on her day, she’s very good, as she showed when pushing Explora in the Honeybee (G3). If she makes it to the Oaks and is at her best, don’t discount her.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Counting Stars

Explora holds off Counting Stars in the Honeybee (G3) (Photo by Coady Media)

7.         Dazzling Dame (8, +1)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Gets her chance in this weekend’s Virginia Oaks to show her multiple-length Busanda S. victory at Aqueduct wasn’t just because of a poor field. The Speed Rating was fairly decent for that race, and she should put up a good account at Colonial Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Dazzling Dame

Dazzling Dame wins the Sorority (Photo by Julia Sebastianelli/EQUI-PHOTO)

8.         Bottle of Rouge (9,  +1)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Also headed for the Virginia Oaks. She returned to racing well when taking out the Sunland Park Oaks, and given her top juvenile record, it’s no surprise she was made the morning-line favorite at Colonial Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Bottle of Rouge

Bottle of Rouge wins the Del Mar Debutante at Del Mar. (Photo by Horsephotos.com)

9.         Forced Entry (new entry)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Bob Baffert has a decent collection of fillies on the Oaks trail and added to that last Sunday when Forced Entry proved too strong in the Santa Ysabel (G3). The Brisnet Speed Rating didn’t come back that strong, but she was convincing enough to earn a spot here.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Forced Entry

Forced Entry wins the Santa Ysabel (G3) (Photo by Benoit Photo)

10.   Paradise (10, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

An easy winner of the Busher at Aqueduct. The field may not have been strong, but she did all she needed to. Hopefully on target for her next Oaks prep.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Paradise

Paradise wins the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Chelsea Durand)

11.   Luv Your Neighbor (11, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Can she end her run of second-place finishes? She seems to keep finding one better, but she’s proving very reliable.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

Hit Parade (left) outduels Luv Your Neighbor in the Untapable at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photography)

12.   Life of Joy (12, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Well up in the Oaks morning-line market despite being comfortably defeated in her past two starts. Needs to find a bit more speed to be an Oaks-winning chance.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Life of Joy

Life of Joy wins the Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Media)

13.   Sticker Shock (13, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Improves each time she heads to the races and won nicely at allowance level at Oaklawn Park Feb. 26. Hasn’t been on the Oaks trail, however, so she will need to finish first or second in an Oaks prep at her next start to earn a spot in the big race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Sticker Shock

Sticker Shocked wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

14.   Labwah (14, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Morning-Line Odds: 80-1

Her long morning line odds reflect doubt about the quality of the field she beat in the UAE Oaks (G3), and lack of confidence she will make it to Kentucky given the political situation and the chance it might be an afterthought to the UAE Derby (G2).

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Labwah

Largest gain: She Be Smooth, Counting Stars, Dazzling Dame, Bottle of Rouge (all up 1).

Largest fall: Super Corredora (removed from list).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Forced Entry (9).

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Super Corredora (5th last week).

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Nearly (1, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Nearly

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Commandment

3.         Paladin (3, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 5-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Paladin

4.         Renegade (4, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

His form was given an extra boost when The Puma, a horse he easily beat into third in the Sam F. Davis S., came out and won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last weekend.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Renegade

5.         Chief Wallabee (5, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Another whose form was flattered by The Puma’s Tampa Bay Derby victory; Chief Wallabee beat The Puma when both horses were on debut at Gulfstream Park. Of course, Chief Wallabee had already boosted himself with last weekend’s close second in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Chief Wallabee

6.         Silent Tactic (6, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Silent Tactic

7.         Class President (7, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Class President

8.         The Puma (new entry)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

The Puma’s trainer, Gustavo Delgado, thought his charge should have run second rather than third in the Sam F. Davis as he was caught with a rails run that didn’t suit him. He was kept wide by Javier Castellano in the Tampa Bay Derby, and it paid off with a nice victory over some well-regarded horses. He’s likely had a Kentucky Derby start confirmed as a result.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: The Puma

9.         Chip Honcho (10, +1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Chip Honcho

10.   Further Ado (9, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

There has been some suspicion of late about the quality of his 20-length Keeneland maiden victory, with most of the horses that finished behind him not producing much afterwards. That included Further Ado himself – his subsequent Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victory wasn’t as dazzling. Last weekend, after a long break, he couldn’t capitalize on a good trip with victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing second. He will probably improve with the run, but he needs to find more.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Further Ado

11.   Litmus Test (11, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Litmus Test

12.   Iron Honor (12, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Iron Honor

13.   Talk to Me Jimmy (13, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 90-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

14.   Canaletto (20, +6)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

May not have won the Tampa Bay Derby, but his effort was still worthy. From an outside gate, he was very wide going around the first turn, had to settle back, and then make a long run. He could have faded in the stretch, but fought admirably to narrowly miss second. That’s enough for him to get a boost up the rankings, though he has a bit to do to earn a Derby spot at his next start.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Canaletto

15.   Potente (new entry)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Showed plenty of class, stamina, and grit to run down Robusta in the San Felipe (G2). However, it’s not clear how strong the race was, so he’s not being introduced too highly into these rankings. He’ll still be a decent chance in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Potente

16.   Intrepido (14, -2)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

Though he has fallen two spots, it’s primarily because of the addition of the two prep winners this week, and he’s arguably had his reputation increased after finishing about the same distance ahead of Secured Freedom in the Robert B. Lewis as Potente did in the San Felipe. With Robert B. Lewis winner Plutarch sidelined, Intrepido is clearly a leading chance for the Santa Anita Derby.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Intrepido

17.   Golden Tempo (15, -2)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Golden Tempo 

18.   Reagan’s Honor (17, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Reagan's Honor

19.   Cherokee Nation (18, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Cherokee Nation

20.   Al Haram (19, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Morning-Line Odds: 12-1 (All Other 3-Year-Olds Option)

The only horse on the Power Rankings not to be listed as an individual option in Pool 5 of the Future Wager; the Pool 5 selection team has preferred UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Six Speed and the barrier-bursting Salloom from the UAE-Europe circuit for their list. Time will tell whether the Saudi Derby winner deserves his ranking.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Al Haram

Largest gain: Canaletto (up 6).

Largest fall: Intrepido, Golden Tempo (both down 2).

New to Derby Power Rankings: The Puma (8), Potente (15).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Brant (8th last week), So Happy (16th last week).