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Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Excitement Builds as Biggest Preps Begin

Mar 17, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Incredibolt wins the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Week 24: We’re now getting into the serious end of the Derby and Oaks preps. From this weekend, all but one race on each of the trails is worth 100 points to the winner; the only exceptions are the 40-point Fukuryu on the Japanese Derby Road March 28, which is still the decisive race in that series, and the 50-point Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park this weekend on the Oaks road.

In most of the 100-point races, finishing second should be enough to secure a start in either three-year-old feature.

We can expect some good horses racing in the major preps this weekend – in addition to those on the Power Rankings list -- including potential contenders such as Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Stark Contrast, and Resplendence. It’s an exciting time.

The rankings below include closing odds for Pool 5 of the Derby Future Wager and the sole Oaks Future Wager. In general, there were few surprises, though it was interesting that Incredibolt impressed bettors so much in his Virginia Derby victory that he closed at 16-1.

Perhaps the most notable aspect of the Oaks Future Wager was the strong backing for two fillies yet to appear on the Oaks trail this year. Percy’s Bar, who closed at 15-1, hasn’t run since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), but she has recorded bullet workouts at her last three breezes at Keeneland. She’ll likely get just one chance to add to her 14 points on the Oaks leaderboard, but in a confused Oaks picture, she shouldn’t be ruled out just yet.

The other well-supported filly in this category is French Friction, an 18-1 shot when the Future Wager closed. The Mark Casse-trained filly has won her only two starts, putting up Brisnet Speed Ratings in the 90s both times. That’s more than can be said for fillies like Bella Ballerina and She Be Smooth. Both were at six furlongs, so there must be some doubt about her stamina, but being by City of Light out of an A. P. Indy mare, the pedigree is there to handle two turns.

French Friction is being targeted at the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland on April 3, a race which is also the most likely aim for Percy’s Bar.

Because of doubts surrounding both – Percy’s Bar due to lack of racing, French Friction, her lack of high-level competition past six furlongs – neither is on the Power Rankings list. But don’t discount them.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment when Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager arrives April 2-4

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1. Nearly (1, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 12-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Nearly

2. Commandment (2, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 12-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

Commandment wins the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

3. Paladin (3, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paladin

Paladin wins the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Chelsea Durand)

4. Renegade (4, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 13-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

5. Chief Wallabee (5, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chief Wallabee

Chief Wallabee wins at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

6. Silent Tactic (6, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 17-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

Class President (inside) fights back to nip Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2) (Photo by Coady Media)

7. Class President (7, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 28-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Class President

Class President (inside) fights back to nip Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2) (Photo by Coady Media)

8. The Puma (8, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 23-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: The Puma

The Puma wins the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photos)

9. Chip Honcho (9, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 45-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chip Honcho

Was his close second to Paladin in the Risen Star (G2) a sign of his true ability, or does he need things to go his way in running to be competitive? We’ll find out more in the Louisiana Derby (G2) this weekend.

Chip Honcho wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

10. Further Ado (10, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 25-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

Further Ado wins at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

11. Litmus Test (11, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 45-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Litmus Test

Litmus Test wins the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Litmus Test gave trainer Bob Baffert his 15th Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory (Photo by Benoit Photo)

12. Iron Honor (12, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 41-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Iron Honor

Iron Honor wins the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Joe Labozzetta)

13. Talk to Me Jimmy (13, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 55-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

Talk to Me Jimmy wins the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

14. Canaletto (14, no change)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 40-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Canaletto

Canaletto wins at Santa Anita. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Ryan Thompson)

15. Incredibolt (re-entry)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 16-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

It’s a little difficult to know what to make of the Virginia Derby – Incredibolt was the only graded stakes winner in the field – but he came back with a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating. I’m a bit doubtful of that number – runner-up Grittiness was relatively exposed, and his top BSR jumped from 87 to 95 – but let’s give Incredibolt the benefit of the doubt. It appears he didn’t like the surface at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull (G3); we know from the Street Sense (G3) that he is comfortable at Churchill Downs.

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

16. Potente (15, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 18-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Potente

Potente wins the San Felipe at Santa Anita.

Potente and jockey Juan Hernandez win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

17. Intrepido (16, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 69-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Intrepido

Golden Tempo wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

18. Golden Tempo (17, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 36-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

Likely needs to finish in the top four of this weekend’s Louisiana Derby to be sure of a Kentucky Derby start. If he’s going to look like a genuine contender to win on the first Saturday of May, you’d like to see at least a top two finish – and preferably for him to not be as far back in the early stages.

Golden Tempo wins at Fair Grounds. (Photo by Hodges Photo)

19. Reagan’s Honor (18, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 38-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Reagan's Honor

20. Cherokee Nation (19, -1)

Future Wager Pool 5 Closing Odds: 19-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Cherokee Nation

Cherokee Nation wins at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Largest gain: Incredibolt (re-entry at 15).

Largest fall: Potente, Intrepido, Golden Tempo, Reagan’s Honor, Cherokee Nation (all down 1).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Incredibolt (15).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Al Haram (20th last week).

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1. Zany (1, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 4-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

2. Explora (2, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 8-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

3. Meaning (3, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 12-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

4. Bella Ballerina (4, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 7-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

Rounds off her Kentucky Oaks preparation in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) this weekend. She’s likely to be the favorite and will be expected to win, but it would be nice to see a dominant performance to boost her Oaks credentials rather than the grinding wins at her last two starts.

5. She Be Smooth (5, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 11-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: She Be Smooth

6. Counting Stars (6, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 22-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Counting Stars

7. Bottle of Rouge (8, +1)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 14-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bottle of Rouge

Overcame some traffic problems to win the Virginia Oaks comfortably. That makes two Oaks prep victories in regional contests following the Sunland Oaks; it’s difficult to work out just how strong her form is, but the same can be said for most of the contenders.

8. Forced Entry (9, +1)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 27-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Forced Entry

9. Dazzling Dame (7, -2)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 48-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Dazzling Dame

Showed plenty of early speed in the Virginia Oaks but couldn’t hold off Bottle of Rouge in the finish. It was still a decent effort in her first run since Jan. 3, and she could improve with the run. She’d have to move forward to have a winning chance in the Oaks.

10. Paradise (10, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 54-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Paradise

11. Luv Your Neighbor (11, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 51-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

The perennial second-place finisher will attempt to finally go one better in the Fair Grounds Oaks this weekend. Failing that, with 40 points on the Oaks Leaderboard, she probably only needs to finish in the top five to secure a start at Churchill Downs on the first Friday in May.

12. Life of Joy (12, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 64-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

Also set to start in the Fair Grounds Oaks. With 22 points, she needs a good finish to earn an Oaks start, probably in the first three at least. Her effort against Bella Ballerina and Luv Your Neighbor may be a good indicator of the relative merits of that pair and of Zany, who beat her in the Suncoast S. by a similar margin to which Bella Ballerina beat her in the Golden Rod (G2).

13. Sticker Shock (13, no change)

Oaks Future Wager Closing Odds: 102-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Sticker Shock

14. Labwah (14, no change)