Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: Who will Irad Ortiz Jr. ride?

Apr 07, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Week 27: With the Kentucky Derby (G1) field all but set, the most influential figure in the Derby picture in the next week or two might be Steve Rushing.

Rushing may not be known by all regular racing followers, but as the agent for champion jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., he’s incredibly important. What’s more, Ortiz clearly backs Rushing’s judgment – so much that when asked on Saturday who he’ll ride in the Kentucky Derby, he said: “Ask Steve Rushing.”

The decision won’t be easy, given that Ortiz has been associated with several leading Derby chances – most notably Commandment, Fulleffort, Further Ado, and Renegade.

On speed ratings, Further Ado would be the choice based on his Blue Grass victory. But given that Further Ado’s efforts away from Keeneland have been good rather than outstanding, it’s likely Renegade, who has run very well on a variety of tracks, will be strongly considered by Rushing and Ortiz, who, despite a stellar career, is still seeking his first Derby victory.

In terms of the final field make-up, the entries for this Saturday’s last-chance Lexington (G3), which offers 20 points for the winner, don't include any horses that could force their way into the top 20. That means the current leaderboard is effectively the final one.

Currently, a couple of major contenders are just outside the top 20, most particularly Chief Wallabee. However, there are usually defections every year in the lead-up to the big race, either due to injury or by choice, so don’t rule him out just yet.

The Oaks preps ended last weekend, but the picture arguably became even more cloudy when Oaks Future Wager favorite Zany was defeated in the Ashland (G1) by the resuming Percy’s Bar. It’s looking like a very open race, with decent odds likely to be available even for the eventual favorite.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment on the first two days of May, when the two big races finally arrive.

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Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Renegade (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 125 (3rd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 4-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Renegade

Irad Ortiz Jr. was well rewarded for his agent’s call to hop aboard Renegade in the Arkansas Derby (G1) rather than Commandment in the Florida equivalent, scoring a clear-cut victory over the consistent Silent Tactic. Renegade’s form in strict numbers terms may not have been as solid as the Florida Derby (G1), but the performance was outstanding. In addition, he’s raced well at Aqueduct, Tampa Bay, and Oaklawn Park, suggesting he’ll have no issue with another new track on the first Saturday in May. There’s a lot to like.

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 150 (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 7-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Commandment

Arguably has the strongest proven form heading into the Kentucky Derby. The Florida preps have looked the best to date, and he’s come out on top in two major preps, the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby. The form around him with horses like The Puma, and by association Renegade and Further Ado, shows he is clearly one of the leading fancies.

3.         The Puma (3, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (6th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 12-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: The Puma

Perhaps still a little under-appreciated. But it’s worth considering he didn’t get a great run when third in the Sam F. Davis S. behind Renegade, beat Further Ado comfortably in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and was only narrowly beaten by Commandment in the Florida Derby – a race in which he turned around his form with Sam F. Davis runner-up Wayne’s Law by 8-1/4 lengths. He was further ahead of Wayne’s Law in the Florida Derby than Renegade was in the Sam F. Davis, though the latter arguably improved when winning the Arkansas Derby.

4.         Further Ado (8, +4)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 135 (2nd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 17-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Further Ado

If you played Further Ado in Pool 6 of the Future Wager, you’re probably very happy; if betting had closed after Saturday’s Derby preps rather than before, he would most likely have been much shorter than 17-1 following his Blue Grass (G1) demolition job, and he will probably be shorter than that on Derby day. It was a stirring effort, but the field did fall away, and the question does remain about whether he’s capable of producing outstanding form away from Keeneland. To date, he hasn’t; it might just be a quirk that’s waiting to be blown away.

5.         Chief Wallabee (4, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (22nd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 13-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Chief Wallabee

Will he get a start in the big race? Results from Saturday’s prep races pushed Chief Wallabee out of the top 20, meaning he now needs two defections to get a start. One horse in the top 20 is almost certainly heading elsewhere – Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) runner-up and turf specialist Stark Contrast has been labeled a likely runner for the American Turf (G1) – and often at least one other horse is withdrawn in the lead-up. But it’s not a position you’d like to be in with a horse you want to start in a Kentucky Derby.

6.         Silent Tactic (5, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (7th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 32-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Silent Tactic

He has quite a job to turn around the Arkansas Derby form with Renegade. But otherwise, Silent Tactic is consistent and looks certain to stay. It makes him a leading contender for one of the major placings at least.

7.         Emerging Market (7, NC)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (8th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 15-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Emerging Market

It’s not clear how strong the Louisiana Derby (G2) form will turn out to be. But winning it at your second raceday start takes some doing, so Emerging Market is obviously a talented horse. He may yet need to improve further to be a winning chance in the Kentucky Derby, but you couldn’t rule it out.

8.         So Happy (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 115 (4th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 93-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: So Happy

Showed his San Felipe (G2) effort was a blip by turning things around in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), running past Potente after a brief battle to win comfortably. There will still be a nagging doubt about the chances of a son of Runhappy running a strong 1 1/4 miles, and the Californian form arguably hasn’t been the strongest, but he should be respected.

9.         Pavlovian (9, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 70 (11th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 52-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Pavloian

You could argue that Pavlovian has shown stronger form than any California-trained Derby contender this year with his Sunland Derby win and game Louisiana Derby second. It’s a marked improvement on his earlier form, and he needs to find more to be a winning chance on the first Saturday in May, but late development leading into the big race is not unprecedented.

10.   Incredibolt (12, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (13th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 22-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Incredibolt

Certainly had his friends in the Future Wager, with relatively few horses closing at shorter prices. His Virginia Derby-winning form is certainly a little suspect given his Holy Bull (G3) failure at Gulfstream Park, but we do know from the Street Sense (G3) last year that Churchill Downs holds no fears for him.

11.   Potente (14, +3)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (10th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 16-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Potente

Potente may not have been suited by having to set the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. But he did fight on well, backing up the impression from the San Felipe that he’s a talented horse. Others look to have stronger form, but he can’t be underestimated.

12.   Golden Tempo (13, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (14th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 32-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Golden Tempo

Stamina should not be a problem for Golden Tempo on Kentucky Derby day. Speed, however, might. He’s been getting too far back to be confident he can run past the caliber of horseflesh he’ll encounter at Churchill Downs. He is the type of horse that you would not want to forget when designing your trifectas and superfectas, as he should still be running on when others are running out of breath.

13.   Class President (7, -6)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (16th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 53-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Class President

The fact that he was withdrawn from the Blue Grass because his trainer, Todd Pletcher, wasn’t happy with the way he worked leading into the race doesn’t inspire confidence in his Kentucky Derby prospects, hence the fall in the rankings. If Pletcher can get him back to his best come Derby day, he’s still some prospect based on his Rebel (G2) victory.

14.   Fulleffort (15, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 110 (5th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 23-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Fulleffort

Of all the Irad Ortiz mounts, he’s probably the most likely to find another rider on his back come Kentucky Derby day. It’s not easy to stack up his form from the Turfway Park Tapeta against the runners who’ve taken the dirt path. Even if he does run to his pedigree and handle the dirt well, we don’t really know how he’ll go against the proven topliners.

15.   Wonder Dean (16, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (Euro-ME Series) (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 42-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Wonder Dean

Another who shouldn’t have problems staying the 1 1/4 miles. But like most other horses coming from the UAE Derby (G2), there has to be doubt about the strength of the form, which doesn’t appear to be at the level Forever Young showed prior to his close Kentucky Derby third.

16.   Danon Bourbon (17, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 40 (Japan Series) (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 23-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Danon Bourbon

Unbeaten and with an appealing U.S. dirt pedigree, Danon Bourbon can’t be dismissed as a chance. The question about the strength of the fields he’s beaten is a fair one, however. It will be interesting to see what he looks like in training once he arrives in Kentucky.

17.   Albus (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (9th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 173-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Albus

Anyone who played Albus in the Future Wager is feeling pretty happy about themselves after he won the Wood Memorial (G2) and secured a Kentucky Derby start. You’re unlikely to get 173-1 on Derby Day, but the Wood Memorial hasn’t been the strongest prep for many years, and it didn’t really look strong again this year, so Albus needs to improve further to be a genuine contender.

18.   Iron Honor (10, -8)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (21st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 34-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Iron Honor

Didn’t get things to go his way from a wide draw and wide transit in the Wood Memorial. But in a field that didn’t look that strong, you’d think he would have finished a lot closer despite these handicaps if he had the class to be a genuine Kentucky Derby winning chance. Maybe he’ll prove us wrong. Currently, he needs a withdrawal to get a spot in the field, but as mentioned above, Stark Contrast is an unlikely Derby runner, so there’s probably a place in the field should his team want it.

19.   Right to Party (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 65 (12th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 317-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Right to Party

Put up a second nice effort in an Aqueduct prep when finishing second in the Wood Memorial. It’s enough that his connections have said a late Triple Crown entry fee will be paid to secure him a start, but he’s likely to start at long odds come May 2.

20.   Six Speed (18, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 80 (Euro-ME Series) (2nd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Closing Odds: 93-1

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Six Speed

His best Kentucky Derby chance would appear to be setting a slow pace and outsprinting the field at the finish. But in a 20-horse field, a slow pace is very, very unlikely. The connections of the other horses are probably hoping he’ll get to the front and ensure a genuine tempo, a scenario that usually results in a fairer race.

Largest gain: Further Ado (up 4).

Largest fall: Iron Honor (down 8).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Albus (17th), Right to Party (19th).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: So Happy (8th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Talk to Me Jimmy (11th), Nearly (19th), Chip Honcho (20th).

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Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Meaning (7, +6)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 126 (1st)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Meaning

The Oaks picture is a confusing one, but Meaning at least will go into the race with a perfect record as a three-year-old. Her victory in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) wasn’t as comprehensive as it might have been, but it was a good effort, and she could improve further.

2.         Zany (1, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 80 (9th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Zany

Hasn’t quite come on as expected since her Demoiselle (G2) victory two starts back. However, she ran well enough in the Ashland (G1) behind a foe that got a saloon passage home to suggest she’s still a genuine Oaks chance.

 

3.         Percy’s Bar (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 114 (3rd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Percy's Bar

Returned to racing in some style in the Ashland. She was definitely aided by the dream rail-skimming passage on the final turn, but she still needed to put her opponents away, and she did so smartly. Can she back up and take the Oaks in her second race this prep, especially given she’s unlikely to get the same passage in transit?

 

4.         Explora (2, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 95 (8th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Explora

Her Brisnet speed ratings have regressed a little at her last two starts, but she turns up every race and can be expected to do so again on Oaks day, provided she quickly gets over the fever that forced her out of the Fantasy (G2) last week.

 

5.         Life of Joy (3, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 122 (2nd)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Life of Joy

Her Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) victory appeared to be a big step up from her two previous runs. Was the opposition not as strong, or has she improved? If it’s the latter, it’s a good sign for the Kentucky Oaks.

 

6.         Counting Stars (4, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (5th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Counting Stars

The biggest query about her is her tendency to throw in a clunker of a run now and then. Hopefully, she doesn’t do that on Kentucky Oaks day; if she’s at her best, she’s a genuine hope.

 

7.         Always a Runner (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (7th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Always a Runner

Put up a great effort at her second raceday outing to win the Gazelle (G3) in a faster time than the boys managed in the Wood Memorial. It’s a big step up from that to the Kentucky Oaks, but she looks to have the potential to go a long way.

 

8.         Prom Queen (5, -3)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (6th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Prom Queen

Was impressive in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), her first try at stakes company. There are justifiable questions about the strength of the form, but in a wide-open Oaks, she’s as good a chance as any.

 

9.         She Be Smooth (6, -3)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (10th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: She Be Smooth

She seemed to regress somewhat in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on the form that won her the Davona Dale (G2). However, she did enough to earn her Kentucky Oaks passport, which was all that was needed, and it’s not out of the question that she could be an improved filly on the big day.

 

10.   Bella Ballerina (8, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 110 (4th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Bella Ballerina

Another filly that did enough to earn her place in the Churchill Downs field when second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She was clearly outpointed that day; there may be improvement in her, as her half-sister showed when following a Fair Grounds Oaks second-place finish with a Kentucky Oaks victory, but there will need to be for her to be a winning hope.

 

11.   Pashmina (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 63 (14th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Pashmina

If nothing else, Pashmina has plenty of fight, as she showed when third in the Sunland Park Oaks and second in the Gazelle. Needs to find a bit more to win the Oaks, but her hardiness means she has fully earned her spot in the field.

 

12.   My Miss Mo (11, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (11th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: My Miss Mo

Holds her place thanks to her being securely in the Oaks field. She ran nicely enough at her two most recent starts at Gulfstream Park, but it would be a surprise if she won the big prize at Churchill Downs.

 

13.   Search Party (12, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 67.5 (12th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Search Party 

Well beaten by stable companion Counting Stars when second in the Fantasy. Safely in the field, but she doesn’t look like a winning chance.

 

14.   Luv Your Neighbor (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 65 (13th)

TwinSpires Horse Profile: Luv Your Neighbor

Returns to the Power Rankings mainly because she has a secure start, while others above her last week do not. She’s regularly found one or two a bit too good on the Oaks trail, and she’s likely to find more than that number to be too good on Kentucky Oaks day without some significant improvement.

 

Largest gain: Meaning (up 6).

Largest fall: Prom Queen, She Be Smooth (both down 3).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Always A Runner (7th), Pashmina (11th).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: Percy’s Bar (3rd), Luv Your Neighbor (14th)

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Bottle of Rouge (9th), Forced Entry (10th), Paradise (13th), Lorelei Lee (14th).

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Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

Week 26 — Mar. 31, 2026
Week 25 — Mar. 24, 2026
Week 24 — Mar. 17, 2026
Week 23 — Mar. 11, 2026
Week 22 — Mar. 3, 2026
Week 21 — Feb. 25, 2026
Week 20 — Feb. 17, 2026
Week 19 — Feb. 10, 2026
Week 18 — Feb. 3, 2026
Week 17 — Jan. 27, 2026
Week 16 — Jan. 20, 2026
Week 15 — Jan. 13, 2026
Week 14 — Jan. 6, 2026
Week 13 — Dec. 30, 2025
Week 12 — Dec 23, 2025
Week 11 — Dec. 16, 2025
Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025