Kentucky Derby and Oaks Power Rankings: An Injury Shake-Up

Mar 31, 2026 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Week 26: Change was expected in the Kentucky Derby picture with the running of four final prep races over the weekend. But the level of disruption was much greater than most would have predicted.

There was no surprise that the prep races produced some significant changes. But less expected was the injury-enforced defection of two stable companions.

It wasn’t clear that Canaletto (15th last week) was necessarily going to seek a Derby spot in the final preps this weekend, but injury has forced trainer Chad Brown’s hand. However, Paladin (third on the rankings last week) has long been a leading contender. The favorite in the last two Future Wager pools, the ankle injury he suffered when working last Saturday means he will miss not only the Triple Crown, but also summer features like the Travers (G1).

The weekend also highlighted the unreliability of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a Derby prep, when fourth-placed Litmus Test failed to fire in the Arkansas Derby (G1), meaning his points tally is likely inadequate to earn a Derby start. With other Juvenile contenders forced out due to injury (Ted Noffey, Mr. A. P.) or lack of form (Brant), it means the only Juvenile runner still with a chance of starting in the Derby is Intrepido, and he’ll most likely need a top-two result in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to force his way in.

More change will happen with the final major preps this weekend (the Wood Memorial (G2), Blue Grass (G1), and Santa Anita Derby) – which also sees Pool 6 of the Future Wager on offer. Several other horses need good results to force their way into the Derby, including a few horses on the current Power Rankings list (Further Ado, Talk to Me Jimmy, and possibly Potente and Iron Honor) and some others rated in the top 20 on the Pool 6 morning-line (Reagan’s Honor, Cherokee Nation).

The change wasn’t as dramatic on the Oaks trail, though we did see a new horse emerge on the list with a high ranking. The final preps (the Ashland (G1), Gazelle (G3), and Santa Anita Oaks (G2)) also feature some highly rated fillies needing a big effort to secure an Oaks start, most notably Meaning, Paradise, Forced Entry, and market leader Zany.

Feel free to disagree with the Power Rankings, and to back your own judgment when Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager arrives April 2-4.

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Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1.         Renegade (4, +3)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 125 (2nd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 4-1

Could not have been more impressive than he was in the Arkansas Derby. The race didn’t look as strong as the Florida Derby (G1), and he produced a lower Brisnet Speed Rating than the principals did at Gulfstream Park, but the manner of his victory suggested a lot more to come. Could well vie for favoritism for the big race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Renegade

2.         Commandment (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 150 (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

There was plenty to like again about him in the Florida Derby. His sustained rally to nab The Puma on the line gives plenty of confidence about his potential to stay 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. Heads the Road to the Kentucky Derby points table and deserves his high position in the market.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Commandment

3.         The Puma (8, +5)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (4th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 8-1

Showed plenty to push Commandment to a nose in the Florida Derby after getting first run on his vanquisher. In doing so, The Puma reversed the form with third-placed Chief Wallabee from their maiden, where Chief Wallabee was on top by 1 1/2 lengths. His connections hope he can keep his improvement going when he races outside Florida for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: The Puma

4.         Chief Wallabee (5, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (12th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Seemed to have his chance when third in the Florida Derby; it may be that he’s not maturing quite fast enough to be at his peak for the Kentucky Derby. Most likely has enough points for a Churchill Downs start, though in a year where more points than usual are required, it’s not an absolute given. Regardless, his continued good runs against high-quality company puts him firmly in the Derby mix.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Chief Wallabee

5.         Silent Tactic (6, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (5th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

Got to the front fairly quickly at the top of the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, only to be decisively run down by a horse that settled behind him. It was a solid effort, and he has strong prospects of performing well at Churchill Downs, but he’s got a lot to make up on his Oaklawn Park conqueror.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Silent Tactic

6.         Class President (7, +1)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (10th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

His victory over Silent Tactic in the Rebel (G2), while receiving five pounds, was made to look a little less good when his stable companion Renegade gave Silent Tactic a firm thrashing in the Arkansas Derby. Nevertheless, he’s still progressing well and looks set to get a chance to enhance his own case in the Blue Grass this weekend.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Class President

7.         Emerging Market (9,+2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 100 (6th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

The horse that was Chad Brown’s interesting-looking second string is now his first string following the injury to Paladin. It’s still a little difficult to know exactly how good his Louisiana Derby (G2) victory was, but it was a great effort for a horse having his second start, and there could be more improvement to come for the Kentucky Derby.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Emerging Market

8.         Further Ado (10, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 35 (18th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

His defeat on his three-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was made to look a little better when that race’s winner, The Puma, finished a nose away from winning the Florida Derby. He’ll still need some points to secure a Kentucky Derby spot – fourth could be enough, third would do it for certain – and he’s coming back to Keeneland, the venue of his spectacular 20-length maiden victory, to try to achieve it in the Blue Grass.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Further Ado

9.         Pavlovian (11, +2)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 70 (7th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

Can he continue to improve in the way he’s done at his last two starts, the Sunland Derby and the Louisiana Derby? He probably needs further improvement to be a winning Kentucky Derby chance, but he does have the advantage of having a start secured.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Pavlovian

10.   Iron Honor (13, +3)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (13th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

May need a top-five finish in Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G2) to secure enough points for a Kentucky Derby start, but if he didn’t, you’d question his competitiveness for the first Saturday in May anyway. His team would prefer a statement performance to suggest he’s a winning prospect at Churchill Downs rather than the grinding one he produced in the Gotham.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Iron Honor

11.   Talk to Me Jimmy (14, +3)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 20 (26th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

The big-margin Withers S. victor is likely to need a top-two finish in the Wood Memorial to ensure a Kentucky Derby start. The field he’s likely to face will be stronger than the Withers, but taking a line through Grittiness, he is not without a chance.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Talk to Me Jimmy

12.   Incredibolt (16, +4)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (8th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 25-1

While the other runners are sorting themselves out, Incredibolt looks secure in his Kentucky Derby spot and is probably not running again until the big day. There has to be some question about the form of his Virginia Derby victory, but we do know from the Street Sense (G3) that he runs well at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Incredibolt

13.   Golden Tempo (17, +4)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 60 (9th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

His climb in the power rankings this week has a lot more to do with (a) injuries or race failures of horses above him in the past week, and (b) the fact that he’s definitely earned enough points to secure a start in the Kentucky Derby. Still appears to need a fast pace to be a winning chance at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Golden Tempo

14.   Potente (18, +4)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 50 (14th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

His San Felipe (G2) victory would normally be enough to secure a Kentucky Derby start, but this year it may not be, so he probably needs a top-five finish in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby to secure a start. He’ll need to go close to winning to suggest he’s a chance to take out the big race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Potente

15.   Fulleffort (19, +4)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 110 (3rd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Another whose rise up the rankings reflects issues with others and his status as a certain runner. The strength of his performances at Turfway Park is still unclear, but his pedigree suggests he has stamina and dirt-racing ability, and a number of horses in recent years that did their Derby prep racing on the Turfway tapeta have subsequently run well at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Fulleffort

16.   Wonder Dean (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 106 (Euro-ME Series) (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

The extra distance, 3/16 of a mile, helped Wonder Dean improve sharply on his Saudi Derby (G3) fourth and score a nice victory in the UAE Derby (G2). In doing so, he also turned the tables on fellow Japanese horse Pyromancer, the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun winner, who earlier beat Wonder Dean at home in a race outside the official Kentucky Derby preps. Looks set to take his chance at Churchill Downs, but at this point, he appears to need to find a few lengths to be a winning chance.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Wonder Dean

17.   Danon Bourbon (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 40 (Japan Series) (1st)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Earned his start on the first Saturday in May with a comfortable victory over Don Erectus in the Fukuryu S. on Saturday. That maintained the U.S.-bred’s unbeaten record, but like Wonder Dean, there’s a question mark over whether his form to date is up to Kentucky Derby standard.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Danon Bourbon

18.   Six Speed (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 80 (Euro-ME Series) (2nd)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 60-1

Stayed on better than might have been expected after setting the pace in the UAE Derby, finding only Wonder Dean too good. He was a long way ahead of the rest, but his trainer still doubts his stamina. His American owners do seem interested in him contesting the Kentucky Derby, however, where he might at least ensure a good pace.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Six Speed

19.   Nearly (1, -18)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 35 (19th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 (All other 3-Year-Olds Option)

May have paid the price for not having started since the Holy Bull (G3) when fading towards the end of the Florida Derby. It may not have been his true running, but with just 35 points, he’ll now need defections to start in the Kentucky Derby. He remains on this list largely because he’s still likely a better winning prospect than several other horses should he get to the starting gates, but it’s now looking like it won’t be the first Saturday in May when he’ll get the chance to redeem himself.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Nearly

20.   Chip Honcho (20, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points: 49 (15th)

Future Wager Pool 6 Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

Just hanging onto a starting spot for the Kentucky Derby, though there’s a good chance that may well be gone after the three major preps next Saturday.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Chip Honcho

 

Largest gain: The Puma (up 5).

Largest fall: Nearly (down 18).

New to Derby Power Rankings: Wonder Dean (16th), Danon Bourbon (17th).

Returning to Derby Power Rankings: Six Speed (18th).

Removed from Derby Power Rankings: Paladin (3rd), Litmus Test (12th), Canaletto (15th).

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Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1.         Zany (1, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 30 (20th)

Needs a strong performance on Saturday to both earn a place in the Oaks field and to show she deserves her current favoritism for the fillies’ feature. The form around her, especially the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) victory of Life of Joy (the filly Zany beat easily in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay), suggests she has the ability to do both.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Zany

2.         Explora (2, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 95 (5th)

Her consistency is such that it’s hard to imagine her not running a good race in the Kentucky Oaks. But how much will the fever that kept her out of the Fantasy (G2) last weekend impact her training? Her trainer suggests it will take a week to get out of her system, and hopefully that’s enough time for her to be ready to give her best at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Explora

 

3.         Life of Joy (3, no change)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 122 (1st)

Her Fair Grounds Oaks win puts her in strong contention for at least a top-three finish at Churchill Downs. Can she improve further?

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Life of Joy

 

4.         Counting Stars (7, +3)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (3rd)

Produced the performance her team wanted to see when running away with the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. She cannot be counted out for the big race on that effort, though it was a shame she didn’t get the chance to take Explora on again.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Counting Stars

 

5.         Prom Queen (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 100 (4th)

Her tactical speed in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) allowed her to reverse the result from her first start, where she was beaten by She Be Smooth. It was an encouraging effort, and she could improve further ahead of the Kentucky Oaks.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Prom Queen

 

6.         She Be Smooth (5, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (6th)

A little disappointing in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, though she wasn’t helped by a slow pace. However, she did earn enough points to secure a Kentucky Oaks spot, and there may be some improvement in her. Probably needs a good pace at Churchill Downs to be a winning chance, however.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: She Be Smooth

 

7.         Meaning (4, -3)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 26 (21st)

Her demotion in the rankings is as much because the horses that have risen above her now have multiple good efforts as three-year-olds in their favor, and the fact that they have Oaks starts secured. Meaning most likely needs a top-two finish in the Santa Anita Oaks to secure an Oaks start, and victory may well propel her up the list again.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Meaning

 

8.         Bella Ballerina (6, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 110 (2nd)

Secure in an Oaks start, though she will need to improve on her Fair Grounds Oaks effort behind Life of Joy to be a winning chance at Churchill Downs.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Bella Ballerina

 

9.         Bottle of Rouge (8, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 57.5 (10th)

Her connections are taking the chance that she will have enough points to secure a Kentucky Oaks start, even though results over the weekend could potentially force her out.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Bottle of Rouge

 

10.   Forced Entry (9, -1)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 50 (13th)

Most likely needs more points from Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks to be certain of a Kentucky Oaks start. A good performance could propel her several spots up these rankings.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Forced Entry

 

11.   My Miss Mo (new entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 75 (7th)

Put in a second solid effort in a Florida Oaks prep when finishing second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks over the weekend. It secures a Kentucky Oaks start for her, but it didn’t really suggest she would be a winning chance.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: My Miss Mo

 

12.   Search Party (re-entry)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 67.5 (8th)

Most likely earned a Kentucky Oaks start by finishing second in the Fantasy, but she was clearly outpointed by her stable companion Counting Stars. Needs to up her game to be a genuine contender on the first Friday in May.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Search Party

 

13.   Paradise (11, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 37.5 (16th)

Needs a good effort in the Gazelle at Aqueduct, possibly a top-three finish, to secure a Kentucky Oaks start. Given what looks like a relatively weak field, she’d want a victory to suggest she’s a genuine chance of winning the big race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Paradise

 

14.   Lorelei Lee (12, -2)

Road to the Kentucky Oaks Points: 50 (11th)

Is set to be paid up for a Kentucky Oaks start, but with 50 points, the Bourbonette Oaks winner isn’t assured of a slot in the starting gates just yet.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Profile: Lorelei Lee

 

Largest gain: Counting Stars (up 3).

Largest fall: Meaning (down 3).

New to Oaks Power Rankings: Prom Queen (5th), My Miss Mo (11th).

Returning to Oaks Power Rankings: Search Party (12th)

Removed from Oaks Power Rankings: Luv Your Neighbor (13th last week), Sticker Shock (14th last week).

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Previous Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

Week 25 — Mar. 24, 2026
Week 24 — Mar. 17, 2026
Week 23 — Mar. 11, 2026
Week 22 — Mar. 3, 2026
Week 21 — Feb. 25, 2026
Week 20 — Feb. 17, 2026
Week 19 — Feb. 10, 2026
Week 18 — Feb. 3, 2026
Week 17 — Jan. 27, 2026
Week 16 — Jan. 20, 2026
Week 15 — Jan. 13, 2026
Week 14 — Jan. 6, 2026
Week 13 — Dec. 30, 2025
Week 12 — Dec 23, 2025
Week 11 — Dec. 16, 2025
Week 10 — Dec. 9, 2025
Week 9 — Dec. 2, 2025
Week 8 — Nov. 24, 2025
Week 7 — Nov. 18, 2025
Week 6 — Nov. 10, 2025
Week 5 — Nov. 3, 2025
Week 4 — Oct. 27, 2025
Week 3 — Oct. 21, 2025
Week 2 — Oct. 14, 2025
Week 1 — Oct. 7, 2025